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000
FXUS63 KARX 090523
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1123 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON TEMPERATURES.

SURFACE MAP THIS AFTERNOON HAS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
REGION. DESPITE FULL EARLY MARCH SUNSHINE...DEEP SNOWPACK AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE 20S TO THE LOWER 30S.

LOOK FOR SOME STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TO DRIFT INTO AREAS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS EVENING...BUT THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT AS WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST WITH PASSAGE OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS/LOWER TEENS.

FOR SUNDAY...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS KICK IN AS THE HIGH SINKS
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. THIS WILL PULL MILD DOWNSLOPED AIR OFF THE PLAINS AND INTO
THE REGION WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE
LOWER 40S.

WARM AIR ADVECTION MID/HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WIND CONTINUING WILL PRODUCE FAIRLY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOWER-MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

AFTER A RATHER MILD START MONDAY MORNING...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES...LOOKING FOR
A QUICK UPWARD REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES INTO THE 45-50 DEGREE RANGE
BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN SLOWLY COOLING THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THERE IS A GROWING CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF STRONG 850-500MB
FRONTOGENESIS MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF I-90. THIS IS DUE TO
INCREASINGLY CONVERGENT 700-500MB FLOW AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
PHASES WITH A MORE VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WINTRY MIX OF
RAIN/SLEET/SNOW. BASED ON THIS INCREASINGLY CONSISTENT SIGNAL...
DECIDED TO PUSH POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR
HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES
WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PHASED TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH
THE REGION AND LOWS DIP INTO THE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S.

A COLDER DAY LOOKS TO BE ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. KEPT A SMALL SNOW CHANCE IN ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS
MODELS SHOW A WEAK EMBEDDED TROUGH RIPPLING THROUGH THAT AREA. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S.

A RETURN TO MILDER WEATHER IS SHAPING UP FOR
THURSDAY/FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE AREA. THIS ALSO SHOULD KEEP WEATHER SYSTEMS DEFLECTED NORTH/EAST
OF THE AREA FOR A DRY SPELL AS WELL. PLAN ON HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON THURSDAY...WELL INTO THE 40S ON
FRIDAY...THEN COOLING A BIT INTO THE MID 30S/LOWER 40S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL IN QUIET NORTHWEST FLOW.

OUTSIDE OF SMALL THREAT FOR LOCALIZED GROUND FOG IN PARTS OF CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ALREADY SEEING GRADIENT
INCREASE TO THE WEST AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE. THIS WILL BE THE TREND
ON SUNDAY AS A WARMING...SOUTHWEST FLOW CREATES SOME GUSTS THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO TOP UPPER
RIDGE TO THE WEST BUT WILL SEE MORE AND MORE SATURATION AND A
LOWERING CEILING HEIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...SHEA