Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 300833
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
333 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON RAIN CHANCES TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS
WISCONSIN. FOCUS THE TURNS TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA EARLY THIS MORNING SET TO DROP
SOUTHEAST  INTO THE REGION TODAY. FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING FOR SEVERAL DAYS ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT  OF
PRECIPITATION. THE ECWMF BRINGS THE MOST PRECIPITATION  TO THE
FORECAST AREA AND HAS THE FURTHEST SOUTH SOLUTION BRINGING RAIN TO
MOST OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE NAM AND GFS TAKE THE
PRECIPITATION  MAINLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN MAINLY
IMPACTING AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. HAVE
LEANED TOWARD A BLEND APPROACH GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH A
LITTLE MORE WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE ECMWF WHICH SEEMED TO INITIALIZE
BETTER THIS MORNING. RAIN WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD MUCH OF NORTH
CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON  AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...POSSIBLY SWITCHING TO SNOW BEFORE
ENDING. IT APPEARS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHEN COLDER AIR MOVES IN SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
ON TUESDAY VERSES THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW
EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON . A TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON TUE SETTING UP WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND ALSO EVENTUALLY BRINGING
SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING TO THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP
AHEAD O THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHERN IOWA/AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING SOUTHEAST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS AND IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA. ELEVATED CAPE
VALUES OF CLIMB TO 200 TO 400 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED
CAPE NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AND EXIT EASY BY THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER A WARM DAY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO EDGE INTO THE UPPER 60S A COOL
DOWN IS IN STORE FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE COLDEST AIR
ARRIVES ON SATURDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 40S. WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THROUGH ON
SATURDAY WHICH COULD GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN. OTHERWISE...FLOW
TURNS MORE ZONAL AS A FLAT RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME 60S FOR HIGHS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 31.06Z. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT
WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY MORNING AS A
WAVE ALOFT PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN MN/WI. LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS RIVER...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE AT KLSE. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND OVERNIGHT
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY WITH A
SECONDARY SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...ROGERS


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