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000
FXUS63 KARX 070257
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
857 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

LAW ENFORCEMENT ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA HAS SAID THERE IS SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO THE DRIFTING SNOW PROBLEMS BUT STILL ACCIDENTS
OCCURRING. THE WORST AREA IS MOWER AND FILLMORE COUNTY...SEEMS TO
BE WHERE THE HEAVY SNOW FELL TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS ARE ALSO SLOWLY
COMING DOWN...ABOUT 1-2 MPH EVERY HOUR...BUT STILL AT 15-22 MPH.
OLMSTED AND DODGE SAY ACCIDENT NUMBERS ARE LOWER.

SO...BECAUSE THE ISSUES ARE STILL OUT THERE...HAVE DECIDED TO
EXTEND THE ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HOWARD
COUNTY. THEY REPORT NO ISSUES THERE. THIS WILL COVER THE
DIMINISHING WINDS AND ALLOW SOME CLEAN UP TO OCCUR FOR LESS
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 617 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

HAD TO ISSUE A QUICK WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MN
AND NORTHEAST IA FOR DRIFTING SNOW ISSUES. DURING THE 4-5 PM TIME
FRAME...INFORMATION FROM LAW ENFORCEMENT AND INCOMING SOCIAL MEDIA
PICTURES INDICATED DRIFTING ACROSS ROADS HAD UPSCALED TO MORE
HAZARDOUS. HIGHWAY 52 WAS DOWN TO ONE LANE IN SOME AREAS IN SERN
MN AND SEMIS WERE JACKKNIFING ON I-90. SOME RURAL ROADS WERE
DRIFTED OVER.

WIND GUSTS OVER THE PAST HOUR WERE THE STRONGEST THEY HAVE BEEN
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 RANGE...INTO WRN WI AS
WELL. THIS SLOW WIND INCREASE TOOK A FEW HOURS TO START IMPACTING
TRAVEL. WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS AND SOME
INVERSION BUILDING FOLLOWS. HAVE ALREADY SEEN THE GUSTING DROP OUT
AT KRST...WITH ABOUT 20 MPH WIND SUSTAINED NOW. THIS WILL STILL
MOVE SNOW...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THE GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THOSE SHOULD
BE OVER NOW.

SO...HAVE ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM TO ALLOW WINDS TO COME DOWN...ROAD
CREWS TO CLEAN THE HARDER HIT AREAS. WILL ASSESS AT 8 PM IF THIS
WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED. WOULD NOT IMAGINE GOING MUCH BEYOND 06Z
AS WINDS KEEP LOWERING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX
FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW EVENING.

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WITH LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WY/SD BORDER. MARCH SUN WAS
WORKING ON THE STRATUS THAT WAS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT INTO TODAY. A
DIMINISHING TREND HAS BEEN OCCURRING WITH THE STRATUS ALL DAY WHILE
HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING IN FROM THE PLAINS IN WARM AIR ADVECTION.
SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW AND ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH WAS
STARTING TO DRAW IN MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. SOUTH WINDS AND
PARTIAL SUNSHINE WAS RESULTING IN TEMPERATURE READINGS THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S.

LOOK FOR THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO MOVE
ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY. RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING A FEW DEGREES FROM TODAY/S HIGHS IN THE 20S.
MODELS STILL AT ODDS ON WHETHER TO PRECIPITATE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY. AFTER LOOKING AT MODEL/BUFKIT
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...NOT ANYMORE CONFIDENT ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES/TYPES OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS STILL
SHOWING MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WITH SATURATION OCCURRING IN THE LOWEST
3KFT. THIS WOULD INDICATE THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE IN THE
FORM OF DRIZZLE. AIR/ROADWAY SURFACE TEMPERATURES WOULD PRODUCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM LATE TONIGHT NORTH OF I-94
...AND THEN OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA DURING FRIDAY MORNING.
NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR DRIZZLE OCCURRING IS LACK OF ANY LIFT WITHIN THE
STRATUS CLOUD FOR COLLISION/COALESCENCE PROCESS. SO...COULD JUST END
UP BEING AN INCREASE IN STRATUS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
NOTHING PRECIPITATING. IF ANY DRIZZLE DID INDEED OCCUR...IT WOULD BE
ON THE VERY LIGHT SIDE WITH GENERALLY A TRACE TO A HUNDREDTH OF AN
INCH OF ICING. DAYTIME WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 30S WOULD SHUT
OFF FREEZING DRIZZLE/ICING POTENTIAL BY LATE MORNING. BASED ON THE
UNCERTAINTY OF SATURATION AND DOUBT FOR ACTUAL PRECIPITATION WILL
KEEP LOWER-END POPS GOING. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS WARMING INTO
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S.

AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT...A WEAK MID-LEVEL
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS CAUSING
LIFT NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR A
WINTRY MIX OF DRIZZLE/SOME SLEET/AND LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF I-90
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. COOLER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED ICING AS WELL. WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT
WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH THE ENTIRE COLUMN CONTINUES TO
COOL. AMOUNTS WOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCHES OR LESS. FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO NEAR 20 ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

COLDER AIR WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN THE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 20S.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BE SEEN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS A MID-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS...STEERING THE STORM TRACK UP
INTO CANADA. THIS WILL DRAW MILDER/DOWNSLOPED AIR IN FROM THE
PLAINS...RESULTING IN HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE 35-40 DEGREE RANGE AND
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 40S.

COOLER AIR WILL FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS
THE RESULT OF A TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 30S ON TUESDAY...AND
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S ON WEDNESDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS ANOTHER TROUGH INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN
THE MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

COMPLEX AND LOW CONFIDENCE PERIOD UPCOMING. SOME DRIFTING SNOW AT
KRST PROVIDING AN MVFR VSBY AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL WINDS
DROP OFF AT MID-EVENING. INVERSION WILL BUILD AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS
AT ABOUT 2KFT WILL INCREASE CAUSING LLWS OVERNIGHT AT BOTH
KLSE/KRST. THIS STRONGER WIND FLOW WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE IN AND
COULD POSSIBLY MAKE FOR A LOWER MVFR CLOUD DECK FOR A PERIOD
BEFORE SHIFTING EAST OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW ON THIS
OCCURRING BUT THERE IS CURRENTLY IFR CLOUD TO THE WEST OF KRST
AND THIS COULD BUILD EAST OVERNIGHT...SO DIDNT PULL THIS FROM THE
KRST TAF...UT DID REMOVE IT FROM KLSE.

AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
AGAIN INCREASE ON THE FRONT AND THIS LOOKS TO BE NEAR IFR OR IFR
CLOUDS. DEPENDING ON THE SATURATION AND LIFT...SOME DRIZZLE COULD
OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS. THE PROBABILITY OF FZDZ/DZ IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE TAF SITE...IMPROVING CIGS AND
INCREASING NW WINDS WILL BE THE RULE.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ086-
     087-094-095.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008-
     009.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BAUMGARDT/ZT
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT