Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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369
FXUS63 KDMX 290906
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
406 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW OVER WISCONSIN
DRIFTS EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT US
TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  THIS WILL
LEAVE IOWA IN SOME WEAK RIDGING TODAY.  WE STILL HAVE ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE SO CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN OVER IOWA AND AS
WINDS BECOME EASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON IT WILL ONLY HELP TO KEEP THE
CLOUDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA TODAY.

IN GENERAL TODAY WILL BE DRY...THAT IS TO SAY THAT MEASURABLE PRECIP
IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT SOME LIGHT MIST OR PATCHY DRIZZLE CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.  ALSO...I DID INTRODUCE SOME LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH AS THE NEXT LOW BEGINS TO WORK
TOWARDS THE STATE AND FORCING INCREASES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN
THAT GENERAL AREA.

.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

UPPER LOW DIGGING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY AND WILL IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. INITIAL THETA-E ADVECTION SURGE WILL ARRIVE INTO SOUTHERN
IOWA BY LATE THIS EVENING. OVERALL INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN A BIT LIMITED DURING THIS TIME. BETTER DYNAMICS WILL ARRIVE
WITH THE STRONGER KINEMATICS THAT WILL ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND THIS WILL BRING THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. HAVE INCREASED POPS FURTHER FOR
SATURDAY AS THIS WAVE OF PRECIPITATION LIFTS NORTH. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH INTO SOUTHERN IOWA WITH THUNDER CHANCES
DECREASING FARTHER NORTH. PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE TO OVER ONE
INCH SO THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR GOOD RAINFALL.

THE DRY SLOT WILL MAKE IT INTO SOUTHERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
IOWA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME DRIZZLE POTENTIAL
UNDER THE DRY SLOT BUT EVENT WITH THAT...SUSPECT POPS MAY BE A BIT
TOO HIGH YET WITH THE LACK OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING
PRECIPITATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM STALLS BEFORE MOVING RAPIDLY EAST ON SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT.

MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A DRIER TREND WITH WARMER
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 60S AND 70S. THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED REMAINS IN FLUX AND HIGHLY
FLUID WITH AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN CONUS AND AN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST BECOMING TRAPPED UNDER THE
RIDGE. AS THIS OCCURS...ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL DROP
ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE NW FLOW AND WILL INTERACT
WITH THE DECAYING SW UPPER LOW. NO GOOD CONSENSUS ON MODEL
SOLUTIONS ON THE UPPER LEVEL EVOLUTION AS THIS OCCURS THOUGH THE
FLOW WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE UNTIL
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

IFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
LIFTING TO MVFR CIGS INTO THE AFTERNOON. MCW AND POSSIBLY ALO MAY
SEE LIFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AND FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP AND MENTIONED
MVFR VIS AT ALO/MCW.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...PODRAZIK



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