Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 200849

National Weather Service Des Moines IA
349 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

.SHORT TERM.../Today/
Issued at 341 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Weak shortwave energy dropped through the area overnight, with a
reinforcing shot of colder air pushing into the state through the
day. Currently have mostly cloudy conditions across the CWA with a
line of showers across southwestern portions of the state. This line
of showers is expected to continue to move ESE through the morning
hours and diminish with time as drier air moves into the state. This
will also allow the clouds to erode from northwest to southeast
through the morning hours. CAA expected through the day, and cooled
max temps a degree or two given cloud cover to stick around a little
longer than previously expected. Therefore expect 50s across the CWA
today, with northerly winds and some gustiness toward the afternoon

.LONG TERM.../Tonight through Wednesday/
Issued at 341 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Summary...Quiet, pleasant fall conditions through the weekend and
early next week with temperatures generally in the 60s and periods
of low 70s. Showers and storms return Tuesday as NW flow and ridging
break down and wave develops and amplifies coming off the

Tonight through Monday...No concern for consequential weather during
this time frame. After trough moves through region today surface
high pressure/ridging and upper level NW flow to take over into the
weekend. Friday to remain primarily in the 50s with northerly
winds transitioning back southerly as surface high passes.
Temperatures to rise back into 60s for Sat before a weak cold
front passes as attendant surface low pass north of the state.
Soundings very dry and cannot see any precipitation generation,
let alone cloud cover, with its passage. Temperatures will step
back a few degrees with the frontal passage, but to remain above
normal for the time of year in the 60s. Southerly flow then
returns to start the week as upper ridging takes over and begins
some moisture return.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Upper ridging begins to break down and a
wave to move off the Rockies and amplify through the region by
around Tue night into Wed. Euro/GFS solutions remain a bit out of
sync, with GFS both faster and stronger. Though, overall pattern and
timing has tended to come into better agreement the last couple of
runs with tendency towards GFS. Thunder appearing likely with
solutions depicting periods of widespread ~500 J/kg CAPE Tue night
into Wed. Should Euro trend towards GFS, may be a window for a
severe threat with decent 0-3km shear and 0-1km helicity, but may
also be limited with GFS depiction of 900mb warm nose possibly
lingering keeping storms elevated and nocturnal timing.


.AVIATION.../For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night/
Issued at 1120 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Winds will
become NNW with speeds generally below 12 knots but increase some
after 16Z. Only high clouds and perhaps a few sprinkles are
anticipated with the passage of an upper level trough axis tonight.
The concern of low clouds is somewhat less as satellite imagery
showed low clouds diminishing instead of expanding.




SHORT TERM...Beerends
LONG TERM...Curtis
AVIATION...FAB is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.