Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 210456
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1156 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Tuesday/
Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Precip chances into Tuesday, then a larger storm system to impact
the state Thu/Fri for the main forecast issues. Cold frontal
boundary currently moving through southern MN will continue to sink
southward and get hung up across Iowa Tuesday. This boundary will
provide the focus for precipitation chances as a weak upper level
disturbance moves through the state in the northwest upper level flow
pattern. Expect a fairly narrow line of showers/rain to develop and
spread across the state Tuesday, with overall light precipitation
amounts. Frontal boundary will continue to sag southward through the
day, with precip tapering off across far southern IA in the
afternoon. Behind this front colder air will be in place into
Wednesday with temps expected to be below the seasonal averages. WAA
then to return late Wednesday into Thursday ahead of the next system
with a large upper level trough moving through the desert southwest
and the southern Rockies toward early Thursday.

.LONG TERM.../Tuesday night through Monday/
Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Behind the front Tuesday, colder air will be in place into
Wednesday with temps expected to be below the seasonal averages.
WAA then to return late Wednesday into Thursday ahead of the next
system with a large upper level trough moving through the desert
southwest and the southern Rockies toward early Thursday.

Upper level energy topping the central US ridge will bring some
chances for showers and thunderstorms with the push of warm, moist
air into late Thursday. Area of surface low pressure situated across
the western high plains ahead of the parent trough, with flow off
the gulf and into the region through the day. Initially Thursday
could see some mixed precipitation across the northern half of the
state as low levels saturate and ice introduction not expected
aloft. Temperatures will be near of below freezing, with soundings
indicating mainly potential for some very light freezing rain.
Warmer air should push north quickly with precipitation changing
over to all rain across the area by mid-day Thursday. Main sfc low
then pushes into the southern plains by Friday, with continued warm,
moist flow into IA and sfc warm front stretched across the state.
Therefore precip/storm chances continue into Friday, with the system
becoming stacked into Saturday and wrap-around flow expected across
the state. Therefore expect precipitation chances to linger into the
weekend with temperatures around average. System looks to exit
eastward toward the latter half of the weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night/
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Generally VFR conditions for all locations during the forecast
period. However, a narrow ribbon of MVFR ceilings and
visibilities will be possible from west central into southeast
Iowa with a narrow band of forcing associated with an upper
system and may affect KDSM and KOTM. Winds will remain northerly
for the entire forecast period.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Beerends
LONG TERM...Beerends
AVIATION...Cogil



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