Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 200457
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1157 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

...Aviation Update...

.DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Friday/
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

Isolated to scattered storms have been ongoing much of the day in
area of theta-e advection ahead of a cold front expected to drop
through the CWA tonight. Deep layer shear is minimal, with strong
instability in place and a large amount of moisture. Had one
warned storm earlier, with dime size hail otherwise mainly heavy
rain and lightning have been the threats with the storms. PWATS
around 1.7 inches across the CWA with some training of storms as
storm motions parallel to the boundaries they continue to form
along. Two main boundaries of note with storm formation, the first
to the south along Hwy 30 closer to the sfc low and more along a
somewhat inverted trough feature. Otherwise further north storms
firing closer to the wind shift line ahead of the main cold front
still across MN/SD. First impulse of energy aloft approaching the
area by early this evening and expect additional development with
storms becoming more widespread toward 00Z. With the minimal shear
not expecting much severe with an isolated strong to severe storm
possible due to the large amount of instability. Again the heavier
rainfall more likely an issue, especially if get some training or
another stronger storm over an area that already saw heavy
rainfall early today along a Fort Dodge to Hampton line.

As main upper level trough digs into the region, more widespread
precipitation expected overnight with instability waning and more
showers with isolated storms expected. This precip area to slowly
shift eastward toward early Saturday and may linger across the
east into the morning hours. Much cooler air moving in aloft with
the clouds/precip chances will keep temps much cooler for Saturday
with highs only in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Soundings indicating
potential for a pop-up shower/thunderstorm across the northeast
with the main trough overhead into Saturday afternoon as well.
Otherwise westerly to northwesterly upper level flow pattern
expected through the weekend with a large area of cool Canadian
high pressure over the region. This will bring dry and cool
conditions into early next week.

Return flow to kick back in as an upper level trough moves along
the US/Canadian border into the middle portion of next week which
will allow for moisture/warmth to push back into the region.
Therefore next precip chances with this setup into Tuesday through
the end of the week as the upper trough digs southeastward into
the northern plains.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night/
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

Main concern this evening remains timing MVFR/IFR conditions. So
far this evening CIGs have been the main culprit, and have been
borderline VFR/MVFR at most sites through the evening. Expect
that to generally continue, but remain mostly VFR. TAFs reflect as
such with VFR prevailing. MVFR conditions likely will only be seen
in vicinity of more prevalent showers. Winds will pick up and be
strong out of the northwest during the day time, with sustained
winds in excess of 15 kts likely and gusts approaching 25+ kts
possible.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Beerends
LONG TERM...Beerends
AVIATION...Curtis



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