Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 231129

National Weather Service Des Moines IA
629 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

.SHORT TERM.../Today/
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Currently have an area of low pressure situated across eastern ND
stretching down to the south through eastern NE and into SE
Colorado. An associated cold front will slide into Iowa today and
push into northern MO by this evening. Very little moisture
associated with the frontal passage, therefore will mainly see a
wind switch and cooler temperatures especially across the north.
However h85 temps only drop to around +10 Celsius behind the front,
which will keep temps actually still above the seasonal average for
the day. Winds will shift around to the northwest and become gusty
especially across the north this afternoon. Still expecting highs in
the low to mid 60s north with highs in the 70s south.

.LONG TERM.../Tonight through Saturday/
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Little has changed in forecast thinking since yesterday. The long
term forecast period, with one large exception, is characterized
by dry and quiet weather and moderate temperatures. The large
exception is a potent storm system slated to move rather slowly
across the region from Tuesday into Wednesday.

The surface low pressure center associated with the midweek storm
system will cross Iowa around late Tuesday night/early Wednesday,
but the precise track is still a bit uncertain. This will be
important as an effective warm front extending east/northeast from
the low center will provide a focus for locally heavy rainfall.
With unseasonably high precipitable water values around an inch
and a half and the warm front aligned parallel to the motion
vector of the system, it is entirely possible that some areas
could see two or three inches of rainfall, most of it falling
Tuesday night. However, widespread QPF will be closer to around an
inch with some areas receiving less than that. Given the localized
nature of any potential flooding threat, further mitigated by
antecedent conditions, will continue with a locally heavy rainfall
message but without advertising any hazardous impacts for now.

There remain indications that a similar but weaker system may
affect the region in the first half of next weekend. However, long
range model solutions of this second system have been highly
variable and at this point will maintain just some slight chance
POPs around Friday night/Saturday.


.AVIATION.../For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning/
Issued at 629 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Cold front to move through today with winds shifting around to the
northwest and becoming gusty this afternoon. Winds to remain out
of the north tonight and diminish in the evening. Increasing low
level moisture tonight may result in some low VFR or possibly MVFR
cloud cover especially across the north. Moisture is shallow
though, so only highlighted with a SCT mention, as confidence is
not high enough to warrant a CIG with a BKN mention.





SHORT TERM...Beerends
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