Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 230523
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1123 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

THE LARGE STRATUS SHIELD THAT HAS BLANKETED THE AREA SINCE YESTERDAY
IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO MOVE OUT...WITH THE BACK EDGE NOW IN OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES AND ADVANCING STEADILY EASTWARD. ALWAYS A LITTLE
LEERY WHEN CLOUDS REMAIN AT SUNSET THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT WITH A
500 MB RIDGE MOVING IN TO PROVIDE SOME SUBSIDENCE AND INCREASING
SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT PROVIDING SOME MIXING AS THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVES AWAY...AND ESPECIALLY WITH THE LACK OF SNOW COVER OR NEAR
SURFACE MOISTURE...BELIEVE THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT AND
BREAK UP EVEN AFTER DARK. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
TRICKY...AS THE AREAS CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH WILL SEE
LIGHT/CALM WINDS EARLY TONIGHT BUT WILL ALSO BE THE MOST LIKELY TO
STILL HAVE CLOUDY SKIES...WHEREAS THE AREAS THAT WILL CLEAR OUT
EARLIER WILL ALSO SEE STEADIER SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM SUNSET ONWARD.
THUS HAVE NOT DROPPED TEMPERATURES VERY FAR FROM CURRENT LEVELS AS
COOLING SHOULD BE MITIGATED BY THE WINDS AND RELATIVELY HIGH
DEWPOINTS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

MEDIUM TO LONG TERM DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH
SEVERAL FAST MOVING SYSTEMS. WILL SEE FIRST SHORTWAVE DROP
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH THE BULK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING REMAINING NORTH AND
EAST OF IOWA. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MID
LEVEL SATURATION SHOULD LEAD TO SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS NORTHERN
IOWA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE WITH
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING FROM TODAYS MUTED HIGHS...ESPECIALLY IN
THE SOUTHWEST. RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL WITH
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW COMING DOWN FROM THE ROCKIES AND PASSING
THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST.

NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MODELS
STILL IN DISAGREEMENT OVER EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. THE EURO
REMAINS FARTHER WEST AND FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM WHILE GFS...NAM
AND GEM ARE SLOWER AND FARTHER EAST. HARD TO IGNORE THE EURO GIVEN
ITS BETTER HISTORICAL VERIFICATION AND WILL BLEND IT WITH THE
OTHERS FOR THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. WILL SEE SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT IN THE NORTH WHERE A WARM
LAYER SHOULD HELP WITH MELTING ALOFT BEFORE FALLING INTO A COLD
SURFACE LAYER. HAVE INCLUDED SOME SLEET IN THE EVENING BEFORE
SATURATION DEEPENS WITH PRECIPITATION EITHER BEING RAIN OR SNOW.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER
OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS. LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH COLD ADVECTION
OVERSPREADING THE STATE...ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM...THERE APPEARS TO BE A FEW OTHER WEAK SURFACE LOWS THAT
DROP TOWARD THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEK AND MAY PROVIDE A CHANCE
FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALTHOUGH TIMING AND CONFIDENCE IN ANY OF
THESE REMAINS QUITE LOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...23/00Z
ISSUED AT 551 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

STRATUS DECK HAS PRETTY MUCH CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA...WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PICK UP
FRIDAY...AND BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY. A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...WITH WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND A
LOW STRATUS DECK TO MOVE IN WITH AT LEAST MVFR CIGS EXPECTED.
POSSIBILITY OF IFR CIGS...BUT UNCERTAINTY STILL HIGH SO HAVE GONE
WITH A MENTION OF LOW MVFR.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...BEERENDS


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