Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KDMX 040933
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
333 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT
WEEK WITH SEVERAL DIFFERENT SYSTEM SET TO AFFECT THE STATE.
INITIALLY...WARM ADVECTION UNDERWAY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE STATE. THIS IN ADVANCE OF
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. FORCING AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL INCREASE
BY LATE MORNING BUT SYSTEM IS OVERALL STARVED FOR MOISTURE. A FEW
FLURRIES/VERY LIGHT SNOW MAY BE SQUEEZED OUT IN FAR NORTHERN
IOWA...HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY PRODUCE CLOUDS ACROSS THE
STATE. QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE
MOVING INTO THE STATE. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE STATE
ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT DURING THE MORNING. BEST
THREAT OF DEEPER SATURATION REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH AND IS THE
LOCATIONS OF HIGH END CHANCE POPS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. SOME LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT
ONCE AGAIN THE BEST FORCING AND PCPN THREAT WILL BE NORTH OF IOWA.
BOTH THE SYSTEM TODAY AND ON FRIDAY ORIGINATED OVER THE
PACIFIC...THEREFORE NO COLD BLAST WILL OCCUR ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THESE SYSTEMS. SATURDAY WILL BE A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY AS WARM
ADVECTION INTENSIFIES WITH APPROACH OF THERMAL RIDGE LOCATED IN
THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY AT OR ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE
WEEKEND PRIOR TO THE ARCTIC AIR POISED TO DROP INTO THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WILL SEE THE PATTERN AMPLIFY INTO MONDAY WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL DEEPEN THE
EASTERN TROF WITH ARCTIC AIR SPILLING SOUTH INTO THE STATE. THE
AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION
PERSISTING INTO MONDAY. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A 1-1.5KM MIXED LAYER DEVELOPING ACROSS
MUCH OF IOWA ON MONDAY WITH 40-50KTS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER. THIS
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GUSTS OF OVER 40 MPH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY INITIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA BUT SPREADING SOUTHWARD ON
MONDAY. IN ADDITION...A GOOD PORTION OF THE LOW LEVELS DROP INTO
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY. IT IS LIKELY BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES
WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY WITH VERY UNPLEASANT CONDITIONS. THE
COLD AIR WILL LAST THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK WITH SOME GRADUAL
MODERATION INTO THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...04/06Z
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS. ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
THAT MVFR OR EVEN IFR CIGS WILL MOVE DOWN FROM MINNESOTA AND
AFFECT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...BUT AT THIS RANGE CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO ADVERTISE EXCEPT AT MCW.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...COGIL
AVIATION...LEE


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.