Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 310446

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1146 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight/
Issued at 326 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Only a few concerns overnight. Weak flow and subtle features will
again result in some fog and potential stratus after 06z. Remaining
light showers today will all but end aft 00z.  Upper level ridge
likely to trap moisture within a cooling boundary layer with
potential for additional clouds overnight especially over the east
and northeast. Model guidance suggests that patchy dense fog may
develop east of Interstate 80...especially in river valleys and low
lying areas around 12z. Across the far west increasing clouds and
showers and thunderstorms in response to a developing warm front and
increasing thetae advection will near the western edge of the
forecast area by 12z. Have continued slight to chance precipitation
for the west.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Saturday/
Issued at 326 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Heights will be building across the central United States over
the next few days. This will lead to increasing warm advection
with deepening southerly flow. Across the forecast area, this
increase in warm advection will begin in earnest on Sunday into
Sunday night with strengthening southerly flow on backside of
retreating surface ridge. The increase in moisture transport and
weak forcing may lead to some scattered storms across the west and
south on Sunday. However, the bigger push comes Sunday night into
Monday as a boundary lift northward into the state. This will
provide a focus for thunderstorms development on Sunday night in
central Iowa which will linger into Monday. Some of these storms
will likely be strong and some limited threat of severe weather.
Heavy rainfall will be more likely given the high PWATS moving
into the state with high rainfall rates in some locations. The
threat for storms will push northward later Monday into Monday
night as the boundary lifts and focus shifts toward the Minnesota
border. This best threat for precipitation through midweek will
then remain across northern IA closest to the westerlies. A better
threat for precipitation will then arrive later Thursday into
early Friday when a surface front drops into the state.

Temperatures will gradually increase each day into Tuesday and
Wednesday as warm advection intensifies. Headline for heat may
become necessary by Tuesday given the combination of heat and
humidity and this will continue to be monitored closely. The will
persist through Thursday before cooling occurs behind a cold
front into Friday.


.AVIATION.../For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night/
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Some mid clouds hanging around KMCW and some high clouds expected
to stream across the state tonight. Fog potential still at KALO
and KOTM mainly, so only have those sites reaching MVFR VSBYS.
Light and variably winds becoming southeast around 5 to 10 Sunday.





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