000
FXUS63 KDMX 130505
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1205 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 554 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

CONTINUE WITH STORMS NORTHEAST AND TAPERING OFF STORMS SOUTHEAST
EARLIER IN THE EVENING. BUMPED WINDS UP BEHIND THE LOW AS WINDS
CONTINUE TO GUST TO NEAR 40 MPH OVER THE NORTHWEST AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. CONTINUE SEVERE THREAT
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT /...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

STRONG SHORT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR OVER SOUTHWEST MN IS
CURRENTLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST.  FORCING AHEAD OF THIS COMBINED WITH
MUCAPES OF 2500 TO 3000 J/KG AND 40 TO 55KTS OF SHEAR AND A SURFACE
LOW OVER CENTRAL IOWA WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING TOWARDS THE
HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR WILL LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF EXPLOSIVE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST IOWA
BEFORE PUSHING INTO FAR EASTERN IOWA.  FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS
NORTH CENTRAL IOWA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER POSSIBLE.  BY 00Z HOWEVER THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN EASTERN
IOWA WITH THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO FAR NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS.  THIS SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCE THE SEVERE THREAT FOR CENTRAL IOWA.  WE CURRENTLY HAVE A
TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA WHICH I WOULD EXPECT TO BE LET
GO FOR CENTRAL IOWA BY 00Z BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...A RELATIVELY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
ENTER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW SO I EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE FOR AT LEAST OF BRIEF TIME THIS EVENING TO 15 TO 25 MPH.
CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH FORECAST AREA-WIDE BY 06Z ALTHOUGH TIME
HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A COUPLE DIFFERENT LAYERS OF MOISTURE
ADEQUATE ENOUGH FOR A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD DECK THROUGH 09Z.
TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY COOL NORTH TONIGHT AS SOME PRETTY STRONG COLD
ADVECTION...FOR JUNE...OCCURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

.LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL STORMS OVER
THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW QUICK RECOVERY FROM MINOR
RIDGE APPROACHING THE AREA FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALREADY BEGINNING TO ASSERT ITSELF ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
FRIDAY SEEING A FEW PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BY SATURDAY MORNING ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL IOWA WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING ACROSS THE EAST BY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD KEEP THE
SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE NORTH ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. AMPLE MOISTURE AND SHEAR WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN A
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...POSSIBLY SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AS WELL OVER THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE. THE PATTERN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A
THIRD WAVE TRACKING EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH LEE SIDE TROUGHING
BACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST TOWARD WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME THE SLOWER EURO SEEMS MORE
REASONABLE GIVEN THE TIMING OF SYSTEMS OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS.
HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE
WHICH WILL LIKELY DROP MINS INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. AT THIS
TIME THERE IS AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERAL INCHES OF
RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS. THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
AS TO WHICH AREAS MIGHT BE AFFECTED THE MOST...RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO ADDRESS ANY CONCERNS
REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR REPEATED RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION...13/06Z
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE STATE...WITH
GUSTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...AS LOW PUSHES EASTWARD WILL
SEE WINDS DECREASE SOMEWHAT INTO THE DAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
EAST AND THEN SOUTH FOR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME MVFR CEILINGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF KDSM/KOTM BY 12Z...AND
WILL SEE VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...REV
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...AWB