364
FXUS63 KDMX 292343
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
643 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances (20-50%) remain yet this
  afternoon/evening, but coverage and magnitude has decreased

- Isolated storm chances (20%) have been added to the region
  Monday, but coverage won`t be all that great

- Cooler air mass for Monday & Tuesday, followed by warmer
  conditions and storm chances returning as early as Wednesday
  and perhaps into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Morning Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) and residual blow-off
clouds has put quite the damper on temperatures today - about 5
degrees cooler than was expected at this time yesterday. Lack
of insolation and resultant cooler temperatures has
significantly reduced storm prospects and severe potential
across the CWA this afternoon/evening; a trend that was
captured well in 1630z SWODY1 Slight-Marginal shift. All of the
12z CAMs captured this well, with only the 12z HRRR and FV3
convecting along a relatively diffuse "cold" frontal which is
progd to be located roughly from Waterloo to Lamoni by mid-
later afternoon. If storms are able to materialize along this
boundary, northeast portions of the CWA would be best
positioned for best thunderstorm organization given proximity
to the mid-level shortwave trough. The best updrafts of which
would be capable of producing primarily damaging wind (DCAPEs of
1000 j/kg) and brief heavy rain. So - have made wholesale
forecast changes to reduce rainfall chances across the board for
this afternoon and evening - generally into the 20-50% range.
Of course, this will mitigate flooding threat as well, so no
longer anticipate a widespread flooding concern. Storms will
depart quickly this evening, giving way to drying thru much of
the overnight.

MCS Fest is set to continue once again later tonight as the next
one moves out of Nebraska and into the Midwest. 12z output has a
bit more consensus compared to last night`s tracking it mainly
into SW Iowa and MO. It doesn`t look to get into the region
until sunrise Monday; and have adjusted precipitation chances
accordingly. As for Monday, did maintain low storm chances as
the mid-level thermal trough moves overhead, steepening mid-
level lapse rates, and likely allowing for at least isolated
convection. Although expect most areas will stay dry for
Monday.

A drier air mass works in for Tuesday. Medium range guidance
differ on timing and magnitude of thunderstorm chances into the
holiday weekend, so confidence decreases after Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 634 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

VFR conditions ongoing across much of the area with sporadic,
mainly scattered, MVFR CIGs at times. Bulk of storm chances/prob
30 groups pulled for this afternoon into evening with continuing
lower storm chances across all sites except KALO. Will need to
continue to evaluate shower/storm chances for Monday and
generally kept with mentions previously included but did not add
any additional at this time with lower confidence in
timing/placement of shower/storm activity. Will continue to
evaluate trends and add mentions as needed/confidence increases.
Otherwise, VFR conditions largely expected to prevail with light
and variable winds through the overnight before winds settle out
of the northwest and increase during the daytime Monday to
around 10-15 knots, with a few higher gusts.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hahn
AVIATION...05