Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 240830
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
330 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

AREAS OF FOG THE MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING...THOUGH SOUTH WINDS
AND SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION ARE CONTINUING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS ALSO AIDING IN FOG FORMATION OVER NORTHERN MO AND
SOUTHERN IOWA. THIS IS KEEPING THE EAST HALF AND SOUTH SECTIONS
GENERALLY 1/4 MILE OR LOWER. HAVE ALREADY EXPANDED THE FG.Y OVER
SW OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP AREA IN THROUGH 15Z. UPSTREAM WARM AIR
ADVECTION...WEAK WAVE AND DEVELOPING SFC WARM FRONT WILL COMBINE
TO FOCUS MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME SATURATION AT 295K BY LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON FROM NORTHEAST IOWA THROUGH WI. HAVE
ADDED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST AFT 18Z IN
RESPONSE TO LIFT AND FORCING. HIGHS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC TODAY. AS
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES...TEMPS WILL RESPOND OVER THE
WEST AND GRADUALLY MIXING WILL ENHANCE WARMING MOST RAPIDLY OVER
THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA SPREADING EAST BY LATE DAY. STILL
EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FROM I80 WEST TO CARROLL.
FROM MASON CITY SOUTHEAST TO NEAR OTTUMWA HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS/FOG
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL HOLD TEMPS BACK
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH MOST OF THE WARMING TODAY DUE TO
LATE DAY SFC WARM AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES. THUS...HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 60S EXPECTED AND WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE ANY HIGHER
RESPONSE THERE FOR THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...SHOULD BE SOME
CLEARING OVER MOST OF THE AREA TOWARD 21-00Z SO DESPITE THE GLOOMY
START... A BRIGHTER AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED THOUGH LIMITED SOMEWHAT
IN THE EAST COMPARED TO THE WEST.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IN STORE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE ON TEMPERATURES AND THEN COLD FRONT
BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRANSITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH CENTERS ITSELF OVER
IOWA ON SATURDAY AND WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT
WINDS. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV/ECE MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WHICH WAS SLIGHTLY ABOVE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. BREEZY ON
SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. LIKELY SEE A LITTLE MORE
CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY AS SOME MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR SOME SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER ACTIVITY
ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH ANY WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING AHEAD OF THE
ANTICIPATED DEEPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS A SMALL AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO WARRANT MENTION OF
THUNDER MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS VERY LOW
WITH THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CLEAR THE FORECAST
AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE
IN THE EAST WITHIN THE CAA REGIME DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS PLENTY OF DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE STATE AND THESE SHOWERS
LOOK TO BE SHORT-LIVED TUESDAY MORNING. MUCH COLDER THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO RETURN TO NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...24/06Z
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

WIDESPREAD FOG AND STATUS HAS BEEN EXPANDING INTO ALL LOCATIONS
EXCEPT FOR KFOD LATE THIS EVENING. ONCE THE LIFR CONDITIONS SET
IN...DO NOT EXPECT ANY IMPROVEMENT THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO LINGER AT KALO/KOTM FOR MUCH OF
FRIDAY MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT TO THE WEST DURING THAT TIME.
SOUTH WINDS BECOME WESTERN BY LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ADAMS-
APPANOOSE-BLACK HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-CLARKE-DAVIS-
DECATUR-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HARDIN-JASPER-LUCAS-MAHASKA-MARION-
MARSHALL-MONROE-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-
WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE-WORTH.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...DONAVON



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