000
FXUS63 KDMX 051722
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1122 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 411 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE TEMP AND CLOUD TRENDS. IA IS ESSENTIALLY
SPLIT BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS WITH POTENT ONTARIO SHORT WAVE LIFTING
AWAY AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVE PLAINS JET SEGMENT AND
BROAD SW FLOW JUST TO OUT SOUTH. SOME MID LEVEL KINEMATIC FORCING
IS STILL LINGERING BACK INTO IA ADDING SOME DEPTH TO THE MOISTURE
AND CLOUDS BUT ANY THERMODYNAMIC LIFT IS ALL BUT DONE WITH LITTLE
FORCING NOTED 3KM AND BELOW WITHIN THE DEEP COLD ADVECTION. SOME
FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOWEVER DUE TO THE SOMEWHAT
DEEPER MOISTURE SE...AND STRATUS WHICH CURRENTLY COVERS MUCH OF
THE STATE. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE LITTLE UVM WITHIN THESE
CLOUDS...WITH WITH THE COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE STRATUS TEMPS WILL BE
BELOW -12C AND FAIRLY EASILY GENERATE FLURRIES.

HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AS WELL WITH LITTLE REBOUND
EXPECTED TODAY.  NAM/RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS SEEM TO BE HANDLING CURRENT
READINGS FAIRLY WELL...BETTER THAN THE GFS...AND EVEN A BLEND OF RAW
MODEL AND MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS COOLER TREND AS WELL.  WINDS
WILL REMAIN BRISK AND WITH READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
WILL BE COMMON TODAY...EVEN INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO FAR NW.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 411 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND ALONG WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL DRASTICALLY REDUCE CLOUD COVER AND A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS UP BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR BITTER COLD WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE MET.

TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND FRIDAY AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION
WINS OUT OVER SOME SUN. WIND CHILLS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH
THE MORNING BUT WILL STILL MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH NOON.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A PRETTY IMPRESSIVE TROUGH SWEEPING THE
PLAINS AND PUSHING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ABOUT SUNDAY. MODELS
HAVE BEEN IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THIS SYSTEM FOR A FEW RUNS NOW
AND WHILE QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT TERRIFIC...THE AIR IS SO COLD THAT
SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 20+ TO 1 SO THERE IS
AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A MODERATE SNOWFALL SOMEWHERE IN THE
CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW FOR BETTER DEFINITION OF WHERE THE MODERATE SNOW MIGHT
FALL.

ON THE HEELS OF THAT WILL COME ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE OF COLD AIR
AND WE WILL BE BACK IN THE DEEP FREEZE BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...05/18Z
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
FROM THE NW THROUGH 00Z...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER AFTER 00Z.
NORTHERN SITES KMCW/KALO WILL REMAIN STRONGER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR
CERRO GORDO-EMMET-HANCOCK-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-WINNEBAGO-WORTH.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...AWB