Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 200841

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
441 AM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Issued at 721 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Rain accompanied by some thunderstorms will overspread most areas
early this morning. The heaviest rainfall along with nearly all of
the storms will be southeast of a Knox to Sturgis line. Cooler
air will spread into the area Thursday night with high
temperatures Friday afternoon only reaching the lower 50s. Cool
and dry conditions will continue this weekend.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 440 AM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016

The front had moved south to near the Ohio River early this
morning. Nearly all of the showers and storms were north of the
front across Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio where the storms had
become elevated. A narrow band of moderate to heavy rain was
supported by upper level jet dynamics and had developed across
northern Indiana into far southern Lower Michigan. Several factors
favorable to supporting moderate to occasionally heavy rain will
persist today over the southeast half of the area; especially
south and east of Warsaw. There is still some chance for thunder
this morning over this area; have kept thunder out for now but may
add thunder by daybreak. A wave on the front will travel northeast
and help the rain continue over the area. Plenty of upper level
jet support and even some jet coupling will be favorable for rain
support. The GFS has trended north and now supports the ECMWF
which has favored the precipitation axis between Ft Wayne and Lima
for several past days. Much cooler air will spread into the area
tonight. Some lake enhanced showers area possible over far
northwest areas near the lake.


.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 440 AM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Very chilly air will be spreading across the area behind the
wave and upper level system early Friday. Some lake enhanced
showers are possible Friday near Lake Michigan; otherwise,
conditions will be cool and dry. One cold night is expected Friday
night will lows dropping into the 30s. Frost may needed to be
added to a portion of the area. Otherwise, conditions should be
dry through Tuesday with moderating temperatures.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 148 AM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Aviation weather conditions will continue to deteriorate through
the remainder of the overnight hours as upper level trough tracks
across the central Plains slowly shifts eastward. Widespread rain
with a few embedded thunderstorms has occurred downstream of this
feature in response to strong frontal forcing and favorable upper
level support in right entrance region of a strong upper jet
streak. Orientation of low level circulation will keep more
impressive moisture profiles confined to to northeast Indiana
where confidence in lower end MVFR cigs is higher for latter
portions of the overnight into Thursday morning. Cannot completely
rule out a period of IFR cigs at KFWA sometime in the 10-18Z
timeframe but will maintain MVFR conditions. Confidence is
somewhat lower at KSBN but will maintain MVFR cigs above fuel
alternate conditions. Cigs should improve to VFR by Thursday
evening as drier low level air advects into the area.


LM...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 5 AM EDT Saturday for



SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper

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