Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 241045
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
645 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 422 AM EDT Sun Jul 24 2016

A cold front over the upper midwest will move southeast across our
area tonight and Sunday. Increased southwest winds ahead of the
front will re-enforce the hot humid conditions across the area
today with highs expected around 90 and maximum heat index
readings around 100. Scattered thunderstorms are possible along
and ahead of the cold front through Monday. Fair weather with a
little cooler temperatures and less humidity is expected behind
the front Tuesday and Wednesday as a high pressure system moves
east across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 422 AM EDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Main concern is excessive heat and tstm potential. Tstms which
formed north of the warm front over IA Saturday and moved ese
into our area overnight were diminishing as they encounter less
unstable airmass. Warm front will cont lifting ne across MI today
as sfc low over MN moves east to nrn Lake Michigan. Widespread convective
debris cloudiness across the area should dissipate this morning.
Increasing swly gradient will allow for good mixing and also
advect m70s dwpts into our area today. This combined with aftn
highs around 90 should result in heat index readings around our
advisory criteria of 100... so have issued a heat advisory for
this aftn. Diurnal heating should also result in airmass becoming
very unstable across the area this aftn with tstms forming along
the front to the nw psbly propagating into this unstable airmass
by this eve. Sct tstms expected to cont overnight and Monday along
and ahead of the cold front as it sinks slowly se across the cwa.
Deep layer shear remains limited ahead of the cold front keeping svr
weather threat marginal.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 422 AM EDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Sfc high will move east across the midwest tue-wed providing fair
wx with cooler and less humid conditions. A series of shrtwv`s
are expected to move through the region thu-sat along an east-west
oriented frontal boundary resulting in a prolonged period with a
chc of tstms. Temps should be near normal through this timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 639 AM EDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Focus will be on convective chances later today into tonight with
little more than high clouds expected prior to this as warm front
moves into Michigan and keeps main focus of storms north of the
TAF sites until the approach of a cold front. Unstable conditions
should be in place this afternoon to allow isolated to scattered
showers and storms to develop on the front to the northwest and
move in late afternoon into the evening. Exact coverage, timing
and duration remain uncertain especially at KFWA given probable
arrival near/after sunset. Hi res models generally no help with
multiple solutions. Have therefore opted to introduce VCTS at
KSBN starting at 22z to handle potential, but hold off on
predominant or temp mention of any thunder.

&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...Heat Advisory from noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ today to 8 PM EDT /7 PM
     CDT/ this evening for INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-
     032>034.

MI...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     MIZ077>081.

OH...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...Fisher


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