Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 301827

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
227 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

Issued at 142 PM EDT Mon May 30 2016

High pressure moving across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will
provide fair weather across our area today and tonight. A cold
front will move east across the Midwest mid-week bringing a
chance of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain
above normal ahead of the front with highs in the lower and middle
80s... and lows ranging from the upper 50s to the mid 60s.


.SHORT TERM...(This Afternoon through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 227 PM EDT Mon May 30 2016

Mainly dry/quiet/comfortable conditions will prevail through Tuesday
night as low/mid level ridge axis across the Mid/Lower MS Valleys
builds northeast into the lower Great Lakes in response to a strong
low pressure system emerging over the Northern Plains. At the sfc,
an initially diffuse frontal boundary arcing se from South Dakota to
the western Ohio Valley will slowly edge close to our western zones
by Tuesday afternoon-night. Rain chances tied to the associated
leading/elevated theta-e gradient should mainly remain just west of
the forecast area through Tuesday night. Otherwise in the near
term (late this afternoon)...there remains non-zero chances for
isolated sprinkles in the vicinity of a subtle trough/lake shadow
where 500-1000 j/kg of MLCAPE is available. However, limited
moisture/lift/coverage precludes any sprinkle/shower mention in
the grids at this time. Otherwise, temps will continue to run
above normal through the period.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 227 PM EDT Mon May 30 2016

Shower/isolated thunder chances increase Wednesday/Wednesday night
as the Northern Plains upper low lifts nne toward Ontario/northern
Lakes. The trailing shortwave trough axis will force an active
frontal zone through mid week. Slow movement and ample moisture
return within pre-frontal theta-e ridge/LLJ fold in will support
the best opportunity for a period of rain/thunder Wednesday
afternoon into early Thursday. Cooler/seasonable wx will follow
post-frontal Thursday and beyond as upper trough settles in. A
shortwave or two embedded in this nw flow regime will bring low
chances for precipitation over the weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 142 PM EDT Mon May 30 2016

High pressure over the wrn grtlks and the lwr oh valley will
provide vfr conditions through this period. Mainly sct cu expected
across the area this aftn... less at sbn with greater marine layer
influence. NW winds generally 10kt or less this aftn become east
tonight as high pressure ridge moves to ern ontario and oh.


.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel

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