Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 261348
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
948 AM EDT Fri May 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 131 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017

More heavy rain is possible tonight, especially over the areas
that had heavy rain Wednesday night as a low pressure system moves
east. After a break in the wet weather Saturday, more showers and
storms are possible Saturday night into Sunday. Highs should be in
the 70s each day through Memorial Day. Monday should be mainly
dry and just a little cooler.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 AM EDT Fri May 26 2017

After briefing with officials in Paulding county, have opted to
expand Flash Flood Watch into Paulding county for same valid time.
While SW part of the county was grazed by the heaviest rain,
impacts are being felt as rivers struggle to handle upstream
drainage. Flood conditions have improved in Payne, but are
deteriorating in Paulding. With signals of heavy rain potential
still existing in CAMs and current conditions, see no reason not
to include them in the watch. No plans to extend any further at
this time, with surrounding counties in better shape for the time
being.

For the remainder of the day, band of dying showers was working
through central Illinois. Models picked up on this well and expect
this to continue as stronger flow refocuses with MCV moving slowly
east across southern IA. Sufficient clearing has commenced to
allow for temps to climb to near or just above 60 already this
morning with some lower clouds still holding temps back in NE
areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 411 AM EDT Fri May 26 2017

There is the potential for another round of heavy rain late today
and especially tonight. A Meso Convective System over northeast
Kansas early this morning should track east/northeast into our
area late today and tonight. A flash flood watch has been issued
over areas that received the heaviest rains Wednesday night,
including amounts over 5 inches. This area extends from Allen
County Indiana to Van Wert, and then south to include Jay county.
There is still some uncertainty in rainfall amounts, but between
1 to 2 inches are possible with locally higher amounts. Several
models did not initialize the MCS very well and were rejected.
Favor the NMM that includes several parameters for heavy rain
including a deep warm cloud layer, precipitable water values
topping out over 1.8 inches at Fort Wayne and a tightly packed
thermal gradient in the vicinity of the low. There will be a break
in the rain Saturday before next system arrives Saturday night
with more showers and storms.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 411 AM EDT Fri May 26 2017

An upper level trof will amplify over the area early next week.
Cooler air will spread into the area. It looks like afternoon
instability showers are possible on Memorial Day near the Michigan
line, otherwise, conditions should be dry. Cooler weather is ahead
Tuesday, before the pattern amplifies late in the week with warmer
weather and more unsettled conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 623 AM EDT Fri May 26 2017

Status wedge had engulfed KFWA as expected but wrn bound has cleared
KSBN with gradual ewd erosion ensuing especially with increased
mixing after sunrise. Upstream...vigorous convectively induced MCV
ovr nw MO will track ene into nrn IN by this evening. Robust warm
advection will develop overtop sharp w-e baroclinic zone with a
several hour period of tsra potential at both terminals but
especially KFWA in proximity to sfc low track. Outside decaying
lifr stratocu extent early on...vfr will manifest until evening
with mvfr conditions assured in rain/thunder.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Flash Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Saturday
     morning for INZ018-026-027-032>034.

MI...NONE.
OH...Flash Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Saturday
     morning for OHZ015-024.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Fisher
SYNOPSIS...Skipper
SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper
AVIATION...T


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