Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 030533
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
133 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARMER WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE REGION
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE UPPER 40S WITH HIGHS TOMORROW CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE BETWEEN CUTOFF LOW TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND
MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES ACROSS CANADA. COLD/STABLE GREAT LAKES
WILL FURTHER AID SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY AIR THROUGH
MOST OF THE COLUMN WILL KEEP PRECIP AT BAY. DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU
CURRENTLY BEING AIDED BY SOME ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH OF
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE FOR MOST AREAS
OUTSIDE OF OUR FAR SOUTHEAST BY LATE EVENING. LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES WILL SET THE STAGE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL. OBVIOUSLY NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT BUT DID LEAN ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF LATEST GUIDANCE AND CUT FORECAST TEMPS BY A FEW
DEGREES. LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY VEER INTO TOMORROW
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES (OUTSIDE OF OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES) AND
MODERATING THERMAL PROFILES ALLOWING TEMPS TO MAKE A RUN AT THE
UPPER 70S. A STRAY SPRINKLE POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES TOO LOW FOR MENTIONABLE POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

LONG TERM TOPIC IS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH FAST MOVING AND
DISJOINTED SHORT WAVES EJECTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES INTO
AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.

WITH THIS PATTERN...THE MODELS GENERALLY CAPTURE THE SHORTWAVE
FEATURES...BUT THE DISPARITY LIES IN THE RESOLUTION AND PHASING.
WITH THAT IN MIND HAVE KEPT THE PREVIOUS TREND OF BEST ORGANIZED
CONVECTION DURING THE FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD...LINGERING SHOWERS
SATURDAY. RETURN FLOW AND INCREASING INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH CONVECTION LINGERING THROUGH MONDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A PRONOUNCED BOUNDARY LAYER
FRONTAL PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD SUNDAY
NIGHT.

CYCLONIC FLOW AND STATIONARY...DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE THE FOCUS OF INSTABILITY FOR CONTINUED
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE LATE PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

WHILE THE PATTERN IS UNSETTLED...THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
APPEARS TO BE LIMITED - ISOLATED AT BEST. THIS PATTERN FAVORS
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND THAT SHOULD REDUCE INSOLATION/HEATING AND
SUBSEQUENTLY AFFECT THE INSTABILITY. IT DOES APPEAR THAT ANOTHER
ROUND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONTAL PUSH SUNDAY/MONDAY...POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WIDESPREAD 3/4 TO
1 INCH AMOUNTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND LITTLE MORE THAN SOME CIRRUS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO KFWA
AS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS THROWN BACK FROM THE DEPARTING CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER/AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...LEWIS
AVIATION...FISHER


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