Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 131922
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
322 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION MONDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO THE
LOWER 80S. HIGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 60 TONIGHT...AND GENERALLY FROM 50
TO 55 DEGREES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014


COLD FRONT WHICH BROUGHT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT HAS NOW SHIFTED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND HAS TAKEN
THE BETTER MOISTURE WITH IT. HAVE SEEN SOME DECREASE IN SURFACE
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES...BUT DON`T EXPECT MOISTURE TO BE COMPLETELY
SCOURED OUT UNTIL THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA
ON MONDAY. NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE HAS PICKED UP ON THIS TREND AND
KEEPS DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HAVE
ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES UP SEVERAL DEGREES TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

EXPECT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS TOMORROW MORNING AS DAYTIME
HEATING MIXES DOWN BETTER 850MB THETA-E AIR WHICH WILL BE ADVECTED
INTO THE REGION BY A WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A RETURN
OF DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S AND SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING WILL
PROVIDE AMPLE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT
BY MID DAY. EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE FAIRLY EARLY IN THE DAY AS AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG PV ANOMALY RACES SOUTHWARD AND PROVIDES
SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR EARLY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. BIGGEST QUESTION MARK AT THIS TIME WILL BE THE FRONTAL
LOCATION. WHILE MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHUNT THE FRONT INTO THE
FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA BEFORE STORM INITIATION...HIRES
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS SLOWER SOLUTIONS PUSHING THE
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON.
IF FRONTAL TIMING IS INDEED SLOWER...AND MODERATE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE AN ISOLATED RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS SOUTH OF US 30 DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS GIVEN 45 TO 55 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. FOR
NOW...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT REMAIN RELUCTANT TO BOOST MUCH HIGHER UNTIL
BETTER TEMPORAL RESOLUTION OF THE SURFACE FRONT IS REALIZED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014


ASIDE FROM ANTICIPATED JULY COLD SNAP FOR A DAY OR 2...RATHER
TRANQUIL AND DRY LONG TERM PERIOD IN STORE.

MODELS HAVE BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WITH ITS DEPARTURE MORE WEDS THAN THURSDAY. WITH WARM
AND HUMID AIR STILL TRAPPED DOWN BY THE GULF COAST WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO MODIFY THE AIRMASS BACK TOWARDS MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS OVER
THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S STILL EXPECTED MON
NGT THROUGH WEDS NGT...ALTHOUGH STILL THINK MON AND TUES NGT WILL
SEE SEVERAL SPOTS DROP BELOW 50. THIS IS A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. IN TERMS OF HIGHS...TUES STILL THE COLDEST WITH MANY
SPOTS STAYING IN THE MID TO MAYBE UPR 60S...A SOLID 15 TO ALMOST 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AFTER THIS...EACH DAY WILL TACK ON A FEW
DEGREES TO TEMPS.

IN TERMS OF PRECIP CHANCES...WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA TUES AND
WEDS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DESPITE MANY OF THE MODELS HINTING AT THIS
WITH SPURIOUS QPF AREAS WILL HOLD OFF ON WHAT WILL BE AT BEST A 20
POP IN MOST CASES. POTENTIAL RAIN MAKER LOOKS TO PASS TO OUR SE
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ON. WILL NEED TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS
BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN EVOLUTION WARRANTS DRY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT KFWA WITHIN THE HOUR WHICH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10
KNOTS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...BENTLEY
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...BENTLEY


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