Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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949
FXUS63 KIWX 240802
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
402 AM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 356 AM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016

An upper level ridge will provide dry conditions this weekend.
Highs today will range between the low 70s to low 80s, with Sunday
a few degrees warmer. Chances for rain showers will return Sunday
night into Monday morning, with breezy and cooler weather expected
behind a strong cold front Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 356 AM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016

A quiet/dry weekend is expected as mid-upper level ridge axis
extending north into the Mid-Upper MS Valleys folds east into the
Great Lakes in highly amplified/meridional flow. Low clouds caught
in low level inversion this morning should at least partially clear
this afternoon, especially into sc Lower MI/far ne IN/nw OH, as
cooler/drier air continues to funnel in on northeast winds. The low
level component to the flow veering southeast and expectations for
more sun will promote a slightly warmer Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Friday)
Issued at 356 AM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016

Deep occlusion emerging into the northern Great lakes/western
Ontario by Sunday night will drift southeast through the Great Lakes
Monday through Wednesday bringing cooler conditions. Frontal zone on
leading edge of associated height falls will bring a decent chance
for showers east through the local area Sunday night into early
Monday given strong upper divergence/deepening frontal circulation.
Narrow moisture plume and progressive nature should limit
duration/rainfall amounts, with PoPs at this range still mainly in
the mid chc to low likely range given lingering differences in
timing.

Strong cold/dry advection post-frontal will result in a
drier/cooler/breezy Monday afternoon, though lake-850 mb temp
differentials pushing near 20C could be enough to touch off a few
lake enhanced showers across southwest Lower MI on southern fringe
of wrap around moisture. Lingering low level height gradient/increased
mixing in cyclonic flow will likely allow for a somewhat breezy
Tuesday morning/afternoon, with rain shower chances mainly north
closer to low pressure. This feature/secondary front looks to drop
through Tuesday night/Wednesday with more in the way of cloud
cover and low rain chances into areas mainly northeast of US 30.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 228 AM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016

Sharp low level post frontal inversion as seen in KDTX 00Z raob and
trapped moisture yielding fairly extensive arc of mvfr conditions
across the lakes this morning. Expect some slow improvement toward
early afternoon as low level flow begins to veer and subsidence
inversion begins to break down.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinwedel
SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel
AVIATION...T


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