Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 221057

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
557 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

Issued at 310 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

Clouds will linger this morning, with clearing skies this
afternoon. Highs will only be in the middle 30s today. A brief
hiccup in conditions will occur tonight into early Thanksgiving
day with clouds increasing as a weak system passes to the north.
Skies will clear once again by Thanksgiving afternoon and persist
into Friday with temperatures warming to above normal levels again
by Friday.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

Lake effect cloud cover taking hold across nearly all of the
forecast area on decent NE flow. Despite the favorable flow and
Delta T values, no precip has been noted thus far with dry low
levels and inversion height around 3500 ft. HRRR shows some light
shower activity possible mid morning into early afternoon, but also
shows lighter precip further north at this time which isn`t panning
out the best. By this afternoon, flow will quickly become more
westerly and cloud deck should begin to erode as drier air works in.
A cold day will be in store with highs only in the mid 30s. Another
fast moving wave will pass through the region with only an increase
in mainly mid clouds expected. Lows tonight will fall back into the
mid to maybe upper 20s.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 310 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

Upper level flow will rapidly transition through a zonal flow on
Thanksgiving day to amplified flow by Friday into Saturday in
advance of the next front and stronger short wave which will be
located across western Wisconsin by 00Z Sat. While dry on
Thanksgiving, it will be on the cooler side yet with highs in the
upr 30s to lower 40s, warming into the 40s to lower 50s Friday with
some potential for even higher temps if enough mixing and sunshine.
Quick shot of light showers possible with passage mainly Friday
night. Temps will cool slightly behind the first wave Saturday with
highs in the mid to upper 40s, with a secondary disturbance and cold
front moving across Sat afternoon sending highs back to similar
levels as Thanksgiving.

Heights increase more dramatically into mid week as deeper trough is
carved out in the Plains. Models vary on chances for precip with
ECMWF keeping things dry here vs GFS showing another area of showers
to accompany the front just outside the current period. Highs should
shoot above normal once again by Tuesday with highs upper 40s to
lower 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 557 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

Mainly VFR through the period. Lake effect stratocu deck in cool
northwest flow will generally hold between 3-4 kft this morning,
though could see a period of high MVFR. Slight backing/weaker flow
under subsident regime aloft should allow lower level clouds to
break up later today/tonight.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LMZ043-046.



LONG TERM...Fisher

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