Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 232029

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
329 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

Issued at 100 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

Mostly clear skies can be expected tonight with lows dropping into
the upper 20s and lower 30s. Clouds will begin to increase late on
the day Friday as an upper level disturbance approaches the
western Great Lakes. Gusty southwest winds and warmer conditions
are in store for Friday with afternoon high temperatures ranging
from around 50 across south central Lower Michigan, to the mid 50s
across west central Indiana. A cold front will track across the
region Friday night bringing slightly cooler high temperatures for
Saturday in the 45 to 50 degree range. Mainly dry weather will
persist through the weekend, with the exception of just a slight
chance of a shower across far northern Indiana and southern Lower
Michigan Friday evening.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Friday)
Issued at 309 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

Warmer air will continue to spread back into the region tonight
and Friday. The lower atmospheric levels will remain virtually too
dry to support any precipitation given weak support above. A very
warm but shallow layer will spread just above the surface Friday.
The amount of mixing Friday will determine how warm temperatures
will rise. Favor a slightly warmer solution over what most of the
models are showing with highs in the 50s.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 1103 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

Temperatures will be generally mild for this time of year through
the middle of next week. Scattered sprinkles or light rain
showers are possible early Friday night as a cold front passes
followed by dry conditions until around Tuesday afternoon as high
zonal flow aloft continues with limited moisture. Both the GFS
and more recently the ECMWF favor a more suppressed southern
solution out of the forecast area to energy emerging out of the
west in fast flow aloft. There is still much uncertainty
concerning the evolution of the upper air pattern during the
middle of next week; but at this point, limited precipitation and
mild weather are expected. A light rain/snow mix is possible
during the middle of next week, but as of now, no snow
accumulations are expected.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 549 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

A weak mid level impulse embedded in west-northwest flow will
provide only mid level clouds this morning into the early
afternoon with clearing thereafter. VFR/dry otherwise with some
uptick expected in southwesterly winds this afternoon.


LM...Gale Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for LMZ043-



SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper

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