Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 112039
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
339 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH
GENERALLY DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY, LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW
SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT BY FRIDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE NEAR 10 WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVG SE INTO THE OH VALLEY TODAY PROVIDING
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING AND BACKING WINDS WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH THE SCT
LAKE EFFECT/DIURNALLY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES EARLY THIS
EVENING. WK SHRTWV TOPPING WRN RIDGE TODAY WILL DIVE RAPIDLY SE TO
THE LWR OH VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING AND TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
BY EVE. EXPECT INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS TONIGHT AS THIS
SYSTEM APPROACHES WHICH COMBINED WITH WK WAA SHOULD LIMIT TEMP
FALLS OVERNIGHT.

SECOND STRONGER SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED ARCTIC CDFNT WILL DROP SSE
ACROSS THE GRTLKS FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SNOW SHOWERS WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OVER THE NW WHERE THERE WILL BE
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE, PRBLY LEADING TO
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW WHERE CURRENT SNOW
PACK IS DEEPER AND MORE NEW SNOWFALL EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN
THE L20S WITH TEMPS PSBLY FALLING OFF A BIT DURING THE AFTN AS CAA
STRENGTHENS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

ANOTHER ARCTIC ONSLAUGHT AS STRONG SWD DROP FM POLAR EXTENSION OVER
CENTRAL HUDSON REACHES FAR SWRN QUEBEC/LK ONT/UPSTATE NY BY 12 UTC
SAT. RAPID LES RESPONSE ANTICIPATED AND LIKELY PEAKING 00-06 UTC SAT
AS LK INDUCED PARAMETERS PEAK WITH EQL TOPPING 10KFT AND CAPE VALUES
TO 600-650 J/KG WITH LWR 20C LK/8H DIFFERENTIALS. WITH TIME PRIMARY
SURFACE LOW UNDERGOES TRANSFER TO NEW ENGLAND COASTAL SYSTEM BY 12
UTC SAT...LARGELY SHEARING OUT WRN EXTENSION OF LAKE AGGREGATE TROF.
THIS ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LOW CP BULK MOISTURE AND COMMENSURATE
SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTH AND SHALLOW DGZ WITH POOR LEVEL OF
SUPERSATURATION AND MAJORITY OF DEPTH IN SFC TO CLOUD BASE WITH
SUPERSATURATION ABOVE DGZ FOR INTRODUCTIONS OF COLUMNS AND SMALL
HEXAGONAL PLATES TO LEND INCREASINGLY LOWER SLR WITH TIME THROUGH
END OF ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT. STILL AMOUNT OF NEW SNOW ATOP
SUBSTANTIAL SNOWPACK TO AFFORD BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL AND COLD
AIRMASS SUPPORTING MIN WIND CHILLS -5 TO -10 DURING LATTER PART OF
LES SNOW EVENT FOR A MULTI HAZARD ADVISORY. UNLIKE THE LAST
SUBSTANTIAL LONG DURATION LES EVENT HEIGHTS REBUILD AS ARCTIC
SURFACE RIDGE QUICKLY ENVELOPES UPPER GREAT LAKES SQUELCHING
RESPONSE LATE SAT AFTN/EVE. THEREAFTER MINOR WAVES FOR LOW POPS
ASSOCCD WITH POSSIBLE WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS DYS4-6 FOLLOWED BY
EXPECTED MINOR LES TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS ERN CONUS TROF DEEPENS AND
DRIVES APPALACHIAN TO NEW ENGLAND OR A NEAR COASTAL SYSTEM AROUND
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

DIURNAL HEATING RESULTING IN INTENSIFICATION OF LAKE EFFECT -SHSN
EARLY THIS AFTN. OCNL BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO IFR AT SBN AND
MVFR AT FWA EXPECTED TO CONT THROUGH LATE AFTN. -SHSN SHOULD
DISSIPATE THIS EVE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND AS A RESULT OF
LOWERING INVERSION ALOFT AND BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT BUT SHRTWV DROPPING SE FM THE NRN
PLAINS SHOULD RESULT IN A GRDLY LOWERING HIGH/MID CLOUD DECK.
ANOTHER SHRTWV DROPPING SSE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WITH AN ASSOCIATED
SFC ARCTIC CDFNT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WRN GRTLKS FRIDAY, LIKELY
ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT SNOW AND INCRSG WINDS WITH FLIGHT CONDITIONS
LOWERING AT LEAST TO MVFR.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ FRIDAY TO 4 PM
     EST /3 PM CST/ SATURDAY FOR INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY
     FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
     046.

     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JT


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