Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 061815
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
115 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART TO THE EAST TODAY ALLOWING
FOR STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BRING MILDER AIR NORTHWARD TODAY INTO SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF
SOME RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH INTO THE MID 20S. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS
TO LOWER 20S EARLY IN THE EVENING...WITH NEAR STEADY OR SLOWLY
RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM
FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK THIS MORNING WITH APPROACH
OF A LOW AMPLITUDE LOW LEVEL RIDGE. THIS WILL MARK THE ONSET OF A
PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THE LOW
LEVEL WAA...WILL COME LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS TODAY AND MORE
LIMITED MIXING WHICH MAY PARTIALLY OFFSET STRONGER WARM ADVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ONE ITEM OF LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR
TEMPERATURE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE EXTENT OF MORE
SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND AMOUNT OF INSOLATION. AN
UPPER VORT MAX EJECTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
SHORT WAVE WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AS EVIDENT IN 00Z KILX RAOB
WITH A PWAT OF 0.06 INCHES. A SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID DECK SHOULD
ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE WHICH WILL MAY HAVE IMPACTS ON TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS MAY BE REACHED LATE THIS AFTERNOON (22Z-00Z)
GIVEN EFFECTS OF SHALLOW INVERSION HEIGHTS AND LATE ONSET OF
STRONGER LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...BUT SHOULD SEE TEMPS REACH
INTO THE MID AND PERHAPS EVEN UPPER 20S FAR WEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SOUTH WIND GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD TEND TO SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING AS MORE
PRONOUNCED SFC PRESSURE FALLS SHIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINIMAL TEMP DROPS INTO UPPER
TEENS OR AROUND 20 ACROSS THE EAST EARLY EVENING... BUT EXPECTING
THERMAL ADVECTIONS TO BE DOMINANT TO PROMOTE A STEADY OR SLOWLY
RISING TEMPERATURE TREND OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH TO REACH WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT ONLY MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/THETAE ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SHORT WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

MODERATION IN LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. PIECES OF ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE NW
FLOW ALOFT INTO THE WEEKEND. EACH OF THESE WAVES...COMBINED WITH
CURRENT SNOW PACK ACROSS THE AREA...WILL INITIALLY TEMPER ANY
FULL REALIZATION OF THE WARMER AIR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO
NEAR 40. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THE INCREASING ANGLE OF
THE MARCH SUN HELPS THE WARMING PROCESS THIS WEEKEND AS WAS NOTED
LAST WEEK WITH HIGHS SEVERAL DAYS 2 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE AND LOCAL FORECASTS. EACH WAVE COULD BRING SOME VERY LGT
SNOW OR RAIN WITH BEST CHANCE SUN...BUT EVEN THIS LOOKS TO COME
THROUGH DRY EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY FAR N AREAS.

STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION AS WELL AS WHAT SHOULD BE A REDUCED
SNOWPACK...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB THROUGH THE 40S AND
LIKELY INTO THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. SUPERBLEND OF GUIDANCE
SEEMED TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THINGS TO KEPT WITH IT FOR
TEMPERATURES. SYSTEM COMES OUT OF THE GULF STATES TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD WITH SUPERBLEND PLACING CHC POPS IN THURSDAY. CAN`T
SEE ANY REASON TO RUN WITH THESE AS EVERYTHING WILL BE WELL
REMOVED TO THE SOUTH...BARELY MAKING IT HERE BY LATE FRIDAY IF AT
ALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 114 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

EXPECT VFR MET CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH WITH SOMEWHAT
HESITANT CONFIDENCE. MODELS QUITE /APPARENTLY OVERTLY/ AGGRESIVE
WITH RESPECT TO MOISTENING OF NEAR SFC BOUNDARY LAYER/STRATUS
FORMATION. GIVEN DEARTH OF UPSTREAM MOISTURE/RATHER LARGE SFC
DPS/CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND LIGATION OF GULF OF MEXICO
FEED...HAVE GONE OPTIMISTIC AND MAINTAIN VFR MET CONDS. FOCUS THUS
TURNS PRIMARILY ONTO RAMPED/DIURNALLY MODULATED SSWRLY SFC FLOW.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MURPHY


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