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000
FXUS63 KIWX 161700
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
100 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

TODAY INTO THURSDAY WILL FEATURE MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH NEAR 50
DEGREES TODAY...AND NEAR 60 DEGREES THURSDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

FAIR WX AND START OF A MODERATING TREND ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. THIS WAA REGIME WILL OCCUR AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND A POTENT MID LEVEL
TROUGH IN FLATTER FLOW TRANSLATES EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT THE SFC SHOULD RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT SHALLOW
MIXED LAYER TO NEAR 875 MB TODAY...WITH HIGHS LIKELY MAKING A RUN
AT 50F (STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID APRIL
STANDARDS). MORE OPAQUE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND ANY PRECIP
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS NORTHWEST OF THE
IWX CWA TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

FAIRLY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVES AND
ASSOCIATED PCPN CHANCES WITH EACH. FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WESTERN LAKES THURSDAY WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO OUR AREA. MOISTURE LIMITED INITIALLY WITH WEAK
FORCING SO EXPECTING JUST AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE
DAY NEAR THE FRONT AS IT STALLS ACROSS THE CWA. A SECOND SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW WITH A WEAK SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG FRONT. THIS SUPPORTS MID CHANCE POPS WITH QPF AMOUNTS LOOKING
GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

SFC HIGH AND SHORT WAVE RIDGING TO MOVE BACK IN LATER FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. TEMPS INITIALLY BELOW NORMAL WITH COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW AS HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY.
TRAJECTORIES OFF THE LAKE WILL SUPPORT EVEN COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE
LAKESHORE AT TIMES. TEMPS ON SATURDAY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 50S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH SLIDES
EAST. ECMWF CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN GFS WITH SUPPORT FROM GEM.
925MB TEMPS MIXED SUPPORT WARMER TEMPS THAN MOST CONSENSUS BLENDS
AND CLOSER TO HPC GUIDANCE. AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF NEXT
SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FOR LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL
REALLY DICTATE HOW WARM TEMPS CLIMB SUNDAY AFTN BUT LEANED A BIT
HIGHER THAN ALLBLEND WITH ALL AREAS INTO THE 60S SUNDAY. SOUTHERN
AREAS COULD FLIRT WITH 70 WITH LESS CLOUDS AND GOOD MIXING.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND WEAK SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE SLOWED THIS WAVE DOWN A BIT
WITH PCPN CHANCES ON SUNDAY LOOKING SLIM AND CONFINED TO FAR NORTH
AHEAD OF FRONT. HAVE TRENDED POPS BACK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION ACROSS
THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH FRONT IN THE AREA. CONFIDENCE LOW ON TIMING AND STRENGTH
OF THIS SYSTEM AT THIS RANGE WITH MODEL DISPARITY SO LOW POPS
CONTINUE WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER DECENT WARMUP
JUST BEYOND DAY 7 FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG
SYSTEM LOOKS TO ORGANIZE IN THE CENTRAL CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
MODEST SE-S GRADIENT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS IN THE 20-25KT RANGE THIS
AFTN WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING/MIXING THIS EVE... THEN
RESUME AGAIN BY LATE THU MORNING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...JT


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