Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 251925

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
325 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Issued at 323 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Dry conditions will continue this evening with an increase in
clouds expected overnight. Rain chances will begin to increase
late tonight, mainly across far northern Indiana and southwest
lower Michigan. Rain will become more widespread by Wednesday and
Wednesday evening before diminishing early Thursday. Low
temperatures tonight will range from the lower 40s north to upper
40s south. Highs on Wednesday will be in the middle 40s north and
upper 50s south.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Cirrus clouds across much of the region late this afternoon ahead of
next short wave and near tightening baroclinic zone. Warm air
advection to increase overnight with further tightening of thermal
zone along with increasing low level jet and moisture advection.
Already seeing mid level returns on regional radar mosaic. Low level
condensation pressure deficits remain large much of the night while
mid levels moisten to saturation. Expect will eventually see light
rain showers develop late tonight across the northwest with
continuous saturation from top down through isentropic lift. Allowed
pops to gradually ramp up after 06z with likely in the far north
toward 12z. Nose of strong low level jet could push morning light
pcpn north of our area with a break before stronger frontal forcing
ahead of main synoptic short wave moves in mid to late afternoon.
Should see this rain into the far northwest mid afternoon with
steady progression eastward into the evening hours. Strong forcing
and weak instability support slight chance of thunder in the
southern third of the area. Another event with strong shear and weak
instability but surface low tracks right across the area. This has
proven interesting in several cases this year with some cases
producing isolated weak tornadoes and downbursts. Certainly not
advocating that in this event but worth noting given strong wind
profiles and low level shear.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016

No strong deviations from the blend in this long term package.
Generally normal to above normal temps to continue into the
foreseeable future with no strong outbreak of cold air noted in the

High pressure to move back in Thursday in wake of departing low.
Will likely see lingering clouds along with some lake effect clouds
until ridge axis moves in. Next fast moving short wave and sfc
reflection approach Saturday. This system looks to track a little
further north with best moisture and dynamics north of the area.
Just some low chance pops now across the northern third. Pattern
repeats with high pressure back Sunday followed by another system
next week. Relatively mild Pacific air with these short waves and
cold air remains bottled up in Canada. Expect a strong warm surge
with deep mixing Saturday which should yield highs in the 70s over
most of the area and mid 70s in the far south. Back near normal
Sunday but warmth returns Monday and Tuesday with southwest flow
again developing. Temps back into the 60s...well above normal for
early November.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 137 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016

VFR conditions expected through the duration of this TAF period.
Winds will slowly increase through the period as surface high
pressure ridge drifts east of the area and low pressure approaches
from the central Plains. Warm advection wing of aforementioned
cyclone could bring -SHRA to KSBN later in the TAF period. Decided
to introduce VCSH near 12Z Wednesday as mid level forcing/moisture
looks adequate enough for rain showers despite drier lower levels.
Deteriorating conditions, including showers and possible MVFR/IFR
ceilings and isolated TSRA, are possible just beyond the end of
this TAF period.


LM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for LMZ043-



SHORT TERM...Lashley
LONG TERM...Lashley

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