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000
FXUS63 KIWX 062057
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
357 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SECOND...MORE STRONGER SYSTEM...WILL
BRING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE MUCH ANTICIPATED WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL ONLY DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
20S. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL PUSH INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

4-5MB/3HR FALL/RISE COUPLET APPROACHING ALONG WITH AMPLE EARLY
MARCH INSOLATION LEADING TO LWR/MID 20KT GUSTS THIS AFTN WITH
CONTD UPWARD TREND OF SFC TEMPS WITH HIGHS LIKELY AROUND 22 UTC.
LACK OF FULL DECOUPLE/CONTD LOW LEVEL WAA SHOULD KEEP SFC TEMPS
FROM PLUNGING OVERNIGHT...AND FAVORED 3 HRLY TEMP CURVE MODIFIED
ONLY PARTLY TOWARDS LATEST BLENDS INCLUDING SHORT/HIGHER RES
GUID. NEGLIGIBLE MOISTURE ASSOCD WITH FIRST UPSTREAM HIGH BELTED
CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH SFC LOW MOVG THROUGH NERN JAMES BAY. THIS
FRONTAL BNDRY/ASSOCD WAVE BECOMES STRETCHED/DILUTED IN DEFERENCE
TO STRONGER UPSTREAM/SRN SASK CLIPPER. SIMILAR WIND GUSTS TMRW
ANTICIPATED GIVEN NEAR IDENTICAL ISALLOBARIC
DIFFERENTIAL...PERHAPS A BIT HIR OWING TO SLIGHTLY DEEPER MIXED
LYR. HELD LINE ON POPS AND LOWERED CLOUD COVERAGE OVER A BLINDED
BLENDED APPROACH AS MODELS APPEAR OVERZEALOUS IN BLYR
SATURATION...ESPCLY IN LIGHT OF DRY REGIONAL/UPSTREAM DD/PWAT AND
LACK OF SNOWPACK RELEASE...SAVE FOR MINOR SUBLIMATION AND MELT
WHERE SNOWPACK/PILES ARE IN CONTACT WITH PAVED SFCS.
FURTHERMORE...SOUTHERN TRAILING FRINGE OF HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCD
WITH SAT SYSTEM BECOMES QUITE NEGLIGIBLE ACRS SRN GRTLKS LEAVING
PRIMARY SUCCINCT HFC TO TRACK FM LK SUPR-LK ONT 12 UTC SAT-00 UTC
SUN. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN LINE WITH GRADUAL RETREAT OF NRN
LONGWAVE TROF AND RETURN TOWARD NORMALCY/STRONG INSOLATION ACRS
SRN TIER STATES. GIVEN 925MB 0C ISOTHERM NEWD PENETRATION INTO
ALL BUT FAR NERN CWA BY LATE SAT AFTN HAVE CONTD SLIGHT UPWARD
NUDGE TO PRIOR FCST MAX TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

BENIGN STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO
NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHING/LOWER AMPLITUDE WNW FLOW RELAXES AND POLAR
JET SHIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL AFFORD A RATHER
SUBSTANTIAL MODERATING TREND AND GRADUAL MELT OFF OF SNOW WITH
MID-WEEK HIGHS LIKELY APPROACHING 50F. ONLY THREAT...ALBEIT
LOW...FOR ANY LIGHT PCPN LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AFTN/EARLY EVE ACROSS
THE NORTH AS CORRIDOR OF WARM ADVECTION TIED TO A WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM PROGRESSES THROUGH. DRY OTHERWISE WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN
POSSIBLE BY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY BEHIND A BACKDOOR
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 114 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

EXPECT VFR MET CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH WITH SOMEWHAT
HESITANT CONFIDENCE. MODELS QUITE /APPARENTLY OVERTLY/ AGGRESIVE
WITH RESPECT TO MOISTENING OF NEAR SFC BOUNDARY LAYER/STRATUS
FORMATION. GIVEN DEARTH OF UPSTREAM MOISTURE/RATHER LARGE SFC
DPS/CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND LIGATION OF GULF OF MEXICO
FEED...HAVE GONE OPTIMISTIC AND MAINTAIN VFR MET CONDS. FOCUS
THUS TURNS PRIMARILY ONTO RAMPED/DIURNALLY MODULATED SSWRLY SFC
FLOW.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY


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