Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 240002

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
702 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

Issued at 308 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

Areas of light rain, drizzle, and fog will persist into tonight
and early Tuesday morning. Tuesday will feature mostly dry and
cloudy conditions with highs generally in the low to mid 40s. Low
pressure will move into the region Wednesday bringing chances for
rain showers and mild temperatures in the mid 40s to low 50s. A
pattern more typical for late January will set up for the second
half of the week into next weekend with several chances for lake
enhanced snow showers.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

Light rain/drizzle will continue to impact ne IN/sc Lower MI/nw OH
into tonight given lingering moist boundary layer under mid level
deformation axis/inverted trough. These moist conditions will also
continue to support areas of fog, though expect just enough of a
gradient and weak dry advection into western portions of the
forecast area to preclude widespread dense fog formation.

Shortwave ridging overspreads in between systems on Tuesday.
Quiet/dry wx should result outside of low chances for some
lingering drizzle near exiting inverted trough in the morning. Some
guidance suggest a few breaks in cloud cover possible but would not
be surprised to see low clouds hang in through the day under
subsidence inversion. Temperatures will remain on the mild side
otherwise with lows in the 30s tonight and highs into the low-mid
40s on Tuesday.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 308 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

A more progressive/positively tilted upper trough will send
low pressure ene into central MI by Wednesday. Brief shot of theta-e
adv in system warm sector may generate rain showers later Tuesday
night into Wednesday locally, with a gradual changeover to snow
showers Wednesday night as deformation/trough axis pivots through and
colder air wraps in.

A colder (more typical for late January) and at times unsettled
northwest flow pattern will take shape for the remainder of the long
term. This perturbed/cyclonic flow regime over relatively warmer
Lake MI waters will allow for several opportunities for snow showers
through the period, especially in favored wnw flow snow belts where
some accumulation will be possible late in the week and weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 654 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

The lingering low level inverted trough axis and mid level
deformation axis will shift east of the area tonight which will
result in gradual decrease of light rain across northeast Indiana.
Some low probs at KSBN for some light rain but bulk of rain
chances over the next several hours are expected to continue to
affect KFWA. Conditions may fluctuate between LIFR/IFR through the
evening hours, but should tend to favor IFR/MVFR late
overnight/early Tuesday as slightly drier air begins to get
ingested across the southern Great Lakes. Persistence of
inversion, trapped near low level moisture, and overall weak low
level flow should allow low clouds to linger through the day
Tuesday and have indicated gradual MVFR improvement through the
afternoon hours.




SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel

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