Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 261804

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
204 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Issued at 156 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Expect increasing clouds and the chance for showers and even a few
thunderstorms as a cold front moves through the forecast area
tonight into Thursday. Severe weather is not expected at this
time. High temperatures will be a bit cooler on Friday, only
reaching into the 60`s. Rain is expected again this weekend as
another system moves through the region. Thunderstorms are


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 311 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Cdfnt over the mid MS River valley will be slow to move east today
as cyclogenesis occurs along it over MO/IL in response to strong
shrtwv rounding base of upr trof over the srn plains. Subtle warm
front to east of the dvlpg low will lift north across wrn portion
of the cwa this aftn/eve and may provide sufficient forcing along
with wk instability in place for a few showers/tstms. Otrws
should be a warm/breezy day with highs ranging from the mid 70s
west to the lower 80s east where more sunshine is expected.
Better chance of showers/tstms late tonight and Thu morning as
strong cdfnt associated with this system moves east across the
area. Deep layer shear favorable for svr storms but wk
instability limiting factor. Cyclonic flow associated with deep
upr grtlks low will provide much cooler temps behind the cold
front Thu with most of the area reaching high temps in the morning
while mostly cloudy skies and brisk winds persist through the day.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 311 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Wk ridging will move across the area Thu night providing fair wx
with seasonably cool temps. Rain chances return Fri/Fri night as
front lifts back north in response to another shrtwv/sfc low
shearing out as it moves ne from the central plains into the
Grtlks. Upr trof over the Rockies finally lifts out over the
weekend with resultant cyclogenesis over the srn plains followed
by deep low movg ne into the upr grtlks. Strong forcing and deep
flow of moisture from the gulf (precip water >1.5") along with
relatively slow system movement suggests potential for locally
heavy rainfall, though a limiting factor in this regard may be
deep convection along systems cold front in more unstable airmass
to our south disrupting forcing/moisture transport as the cdfnt
moves through. Limiting factor for svr once again appears to be wk
instability with another strong flow/high shear environment
expected. Windy/Cool conditions Monday as cold air wraps around
the deep low movg into the upr grtlks. Strong cyclonic flow and
wrap around moisture may allow for some light showers to persist.
Dry wx expected by Tue with some moderation in temps as high
pressure ridge builds in.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 156 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Clear skies will give way to some BKN/SCT Cu this afternoon as the
sun brings us a little bit of instability and a pre-frontal trough
approaches the region. Upstream observations/satellite imagery shows
the approaching area of Cu around 3-5KFT-expected to arrive at KSBN
within the hour. There is a little region of clearing behind this
initial batch of Cu before the clouds associated with the cold front
move into the area...spreading west to east overnight. The cold
front will cross the central forecast area by about 12Z Thu...and
exit the forecast area by 00z Fri. Low level wind shear is expected
at KFWA tonight with the approaching system before winds mix out
near the frontal passage. Don`t think we`ll see any precipitation
with the pre-frontal trough passing through at either KFWA/KSBN this
afternoon. The best chances for precipitation are with the cold
front at KSBN this evening/overnight, with thunderstorms not out of
the question. KFWA will see the best chances for any showers later,
likely after 9z if at all. Some of the guidance suggests that
precipitation won`t even make it to have left just VCSH in
for now. Think we`ll see some scattered showers but uncertain as to
how much we`ll see at the actual airport.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-046.




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