Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 290855
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
455 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...PRIMARILY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MOSTLY LIGHT. IT WILL BECOME WINDY AND
HIGHS WILL PUSH INTO THE MIDDLE 40S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL
BACK INTO THE LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

RAPID PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM FLOW WITH SUCCINCT SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ACRS DAKOTAS THIS AM TO MOVE INTO NRN GRTLKS BY THIS EVENING WITH
STRONG 160-190M/12HR HEIGHT FALLS AND ASSOCD COLD FNTL BNDRY.
HOWEVER...LEADING NARROW DEEP LAYER WAA ALONG WITH LACKLUSTER
THETA-E DRAW /NRN MOST PERIPHERY AXIS OF 0.75 PWAT STRUGGLES TO
REACH NEWD INTO NRN IN THIS AFTN/ WHICH IS FURTHER IMPEDED WITH
TIME SPCLY WITH EWD EXTENT GIVEN ANTECEDENT PWAT AROUND 0.15 IN
ERN CWA THIS AM. HIGH COND PRES DEFICITS /GTE 100 MB AT 925 MB AT
18 UTC TDY/ WILL BE SLOW TO RELENT. KEPT POPS A BIT BLO MAV/MOS
GIVEN COVERAGE CONCERNS...OVERALL LOW QPF EVENT AND POSSIBLE
SPLIT WITH TIME /MI FOCUS ASSOCD WITH CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
HFC/STRONGER FNTL CONVERGENCE FOCUS AND SWD SHIFT WITH TIME AS
NRN EXTENSION OF ALREADY FEEBLE MOISTURE AXIS BECOMES SHUNTED
ALONG OH RVR VLY. WHILE CONCEPTUAL MODELS MIGHT SUGGEST RAIN V
SHOWERS GIVEN DEEP LYR WAA ASCENT...HAVE OPTED FOR SHRA
WORDING/RELATIVE SHORT DURATION/PONTL POCKETS OF SUB CLOUD
SATURATION DIFFICULTIES LEADING TO TRANSIENT RAFL EVENTS THIS
AFTN/EVE. AM INSOLATION AND DEEP LAYER WAA SHOULD ALLOW DECENT
THERMAL RECOVERY BEFORE THICKER LATE AFTN CLOUD COVER/PRECIP
COOLING OCCURS AND HAVE RAISED SLIGHTLY OVER PRIOR. MODEL
SOUNDINGS/XSCTIONS SUGGEST THAT WITH TIME AFTR SFC FROPA
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING TO BRING AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING BY DAYBREAK.
LTL CHG NEEDED TO EXISTING TIMING OF EXITING POPS/WX/MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE HIGH ZONAL THIS PERIOD WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES. SOME CHALLENGES THIS UPCOMING WEEK
INCLUDE TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROFS AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION.
FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK...INITIALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROF THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT ALL RAIN MONDAY
NIGHT. KEPT A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER NORTHEAST AREAS MONDAY
NIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH
OF SYSTEMS INCREASES RAPIDLY AFTER WEDNESDAY. THESE UNCERTAINTIES
ARE REFLECTED IN THE RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANT SPREADS AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
INCREASING MOISTURE IS LIKELY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE
NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SO FOR THIS PACKAGE FOR NOW WITH GIVEN
UNCERTAINTIES...WENT WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 154 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

PRIMARILY VFR MET CONDS THROUGH THE PD. HOWEVER...HIGH DETAIL
WITH REGARD TO STRENGTHENING SFC WIND FIELD THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD
FRONTAL SYSTEM. BRIEF PD OF SHRA POTNLY FOLLOWED WITH HIGH END
MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH VEERING/INCREASINGLY MIXED AND LESS GUSTY
WINDS TOWARD END OF FCST PD. WHILE EVENING 2KFT WRLY FLOW WILL BE
STRONG...IT APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENTLY MIXED/COINCIDENT WITH SFC
WIND SHIFT TO PRECLUDE LLWS MENTION.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MURPHY


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