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000
FXUS63 KLOT 221049
AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
549 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...
349 AM CDT

Today through Tonight...

Surface low pressure was analyzed over western Iowa early this
morning, with a convective outflow enhanced stationary front
extending east-southeast along a roughly DSM-CMI-north of IND
line. Regional radar mosaic depicts several thunderstorms
clusters/MCS`s on the cool side of the low level boundary, from
northeastern IA into northern IL/IN and northwest OH.
Southwesterly 35-40 kt low level jet, forcing ascent across this
low level baroclinic zone, appears to be the primary forcing for
these thunderstorm clusters, within a moderately unstable and very
moist air mass characterized by MUCAPEs of 1000-2000 J/kg and
PW`s of 1.50-2.00+ inches.

The low level jet is expected to veer more westerly with time
early this morning, with the focus for additional elevated
thunderstorm development and heavier rainfall shifting primarily
south of I-88 across northern IL and perhaps even more so
along/south of the I-80 corridor. Gradual weakening of convection
and decreasing rainfall rates are expected however, with the
diurnal weakening of the low level jet. Based on this will have
highest pops across the south/southwest half of the cwa this
morning. While threat of new flooding is diminishing, will
maintain flash flood watch as through 9 am CDT is based on
coordination with WFOs DVN/MKX. Later in the day, threat of
additional thunderstorms is expected to be mainly across the south
third or so of the forecast area, close to current surface
boundary position as Iowa surface low tracks east along it this
afternoon. Some potential for a few isolated showers/thunderstorms
farther north during the afternoon as region of broad height
falls develops across the Upper Midwest in association with
stronger mid-level wave, though suspect coverage will be fairly
minimal. Isolated diurnal showers/thunderstorms should fade
quickly by evening, with a few scattered storms far south sagging
out of the cwa with the front during the early evening hours.
Decreasing cloudiness late tonight could result in some patchy fog
in some spots.

With the convective-reinforced frontal boundary across the
southern cwa, surface winds should turn north-northeasterly across
far northern IL by afternoon. This, and residual cloud cover from
ongoing convection, should result in a range of temps from the
low 80`s along the IL lake shore, to around 90 far south near the
front. Very high dew points in the mid-upper 70`s may again allow
heat indices in the 100-105 range for a short time across the far
southern cwa.

Ratzer

&&

.LONG TERM...
402 AM CDT

Sunday through Saturday...

After some very wet and active weather, Sunday begins a transition
to a cooler and drier airmass, at least for a couple of days.  By
Sunday morning winds should be veering west and northwest at all
levels.  While this will begin to usher in the new airmass, the
afternoon passage of an upper trough over residual warmth and
moisture at low levels may support a few additional showers during
the afternoon.

By Monday morning northerly flow has become established with the
approach of a surface high into WI and the western Great Lakes. This
high will support cooler temperatures and inhibit moisture return
through early Wednesday as it slowly makes its way through the Great
Lakes and toward New England. Highs Monday in many locations will
not make it out of the 70s, and Tuesday looks only be a few degrees
warmer.

By Wednesday the high is far enough east that southeasterly return
flow again becomes established.  Models also suggest the approach of
a broad frontal zone stretching from the southern Plains into the
central Great Lakes by Wednesday afternoon or evening which then
shows signs of lingering over the area through late in the week.
Moisture convergence along this boundary would support increased
precip chances for the second half of the week, with possible
clearing by the weekend as the front finally moves south away from
the area.  Confidence decreases considerably toward later in the
week regarding the motion of this boundary.

Lenning

&&

.AVIATION...
For the 12Z TAFs...

Main aviation concerns this morning are ending rain/thunderstorms
next few hours, potential for a period of mvfr cigs through
midday, and wind direction(s) before becoming northeast this
afternoon.

Low pressure was over western Iowa early this morning, with a
stationary frontal boundary extending from DSM-CMI-IND. Clusters
of thunderstorms have traversed the region north of the surface
boundary overnight, though strongest convection has shifted
south/southwest of terminals as of 1030Z. Light-moderate
stratiform rain with occasional lightning expected to persist for
a couple hours early, but should dissipate across terminals before
mid-morning. Convectively-induced bubble high working across
northern IL at this hour was producing gusty south-southwest winds
20-25 kts...but this should be short-lived. Winds may be a bit
variable during the remainder of the morning, but with front to
our south it appears the wind should turn northeast by early
afternoon.

Model guidance indicates the potential for some isolated shra/tsra
to develop during the afternoon hours, though greater chances will
remain south of the terminals. Fairly low confidence in coverage
closer to the terminals, and feel too low for mention in TAF`s at
this point. Precip threat ends by evening, with clearing
conditions overnight.

Ratzer

&&

.MARINE...
400 AM CDT

A light gradient today will generally support northerly flow but
local thermal effects likely will promote lake breeze formation.
Winds remain light on Sunday and somewhat variable. A slightly
stronger gradient ahead of an approaching high will support
northerly flow again Monday and the long fetch may promote enough
wave growth on the southern end to prompt small craft advisories.

Lenning

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Flash Flood Watch...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
     ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022
     until 9 AM Saturday.

IN...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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