Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL

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000
FXUS63 KLOT 042051
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
251 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...
251 PM CST

THROUGH FRIDAY...

THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
OVERALL...IT LOOKS LIKE A QUITE...BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD SHORT RANGE
PERIOD. THE HEART OF ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT SOUTH OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A POSITIVELY
TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY SAGS SOUTHWARD. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 1040 MB WILL ALSO BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY
EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA...KEEPING THE REGION IN A GRADIENT
SUPPORTING 5 TO 10 KT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS MAY
HELP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OFF TO MUCH BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WHERE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...THE COMBINATION OF A CONTINUED
NORTHERLY FLOW UP TO 10 KT AND MORE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP
CONDITIONS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS MY EAST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWESTERN INDIANA COUNTIES. WIND CHILLS TONIGHT LOOK
TO FALL JUST SHY OF CRITERIA ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WHERE
15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO READINGS ARE FORECAST.

ON THURSDAY THE MAIN STORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE UNSEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS. THE HEART OF THIS COLD AIR MASS...FEATURING AROUND -18
CELSIUS 850 AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES...SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. IT APPEARS THAT A RECORD COLD MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE COULD BE SET AT KRFD. SEE CLIMO BELOW FOR THE RECORD
INFO. OVERALL...HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE TEENS
AREA-WIDE...AND THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SUBZERO LOWS IN MANY AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
CURRENT FORECAST LOW FOR CHICAGO ORD THURSDAY NIGHT IS RIGHT AROUND
+1. THE CURRENT RECORD LOW FOR FRIDAY MORNING IS +2...SO YET
ANOTHER RECORD LOW IS POSSIBLE.

KJB

&&

.LONG TERM...
241 PM CST

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

COMING SHORTLY.

KJB

&&

.CLIMATE...UPDATED WED 251 PM.

WE COULD COME CLOSE TO A COUPLE RECORDS WITH THIS NEXT COLD SPELL.
THE ONES WITH STARS (*) ARE MOST VULNERABLE.


                  THU 3/5         FRI 3/6
ROCKFORD

RECORD LOW      -9 (1978)        -7 (1960)
RECORD LOW MAX  17 (1960)*

CHICAGO
RECORD LOW 0 (1978)*        2 (1960)*
RECORD LOW MAX   12 (1901)

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...

* OCNLLY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
  EVENING.

KREIN

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PERSISTENT COLD ADVECTION
AND AMPLE SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER...ARND 20KT...TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC. EXPECT THAT GUSTINESS
SHOULD END ARND SUNSET. PREVAILING HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW. AS THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH SETTLES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TOMORROW...WINDS WILL BACK TO
WLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE RELATIVELY
WEAK...SO WINDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW.

KREIN

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.

KREIN

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. SUNDAY...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

BMD

&&

.MARINE...
214 PM CST

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY LATE
THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KT AHEAD OF THE LOW. A TRAILING WEAKER
LOW/TROUGH AXIS WILL CLEAR THE LAKE BY SATURDAY MORNING
WHILE STEERING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY AND SHIFTING WINDS TO NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC MONDAY
MORNING.

KMD

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

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