Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL

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000
FXUS63 KLOT 190306
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
906 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...846 PM CST

WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN LARGELY OFFSHORE...BUT HAVE
HAD REPORTS OF FLURRIES OR A LIGHT MIST IN LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES OF
ILLINOIS. EXPECT FLURRIES/PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO REMAIN
POSSIBLE FOR THE EVENING...DIMINISHING QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. NO OTHER
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR THE EVENING.

KMD

&&

.SHORT TERM...
249 PM CST

MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS
DIRTY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH RES GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING HINTS OF LAKE EFFECT PRECIP DEVELOPING TONIGHT...THOUGH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS WOULD KEEP
THE THREAT OF ANY MEASURABLE LAKE EFFECT PRECIP VERY LOW. STILL
PLAUSIBLE THAT THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW GRAINS/FLURRIES INTO
NORTHEAST PORTER COUNTY TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS MORE
NORTHERLY.

IZZI

&&

.LONG TERM...
249 PM CST

GOING INTO THE WEEKEND FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WEAK
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL PASS MAINLY JUST NORTH OF THE REGION
SATURDAY...BUT MOISTURE/FORCING LOOK TOO LIMITED FOR ANY
PRECIP...THOUGH WAA CLOUDINESS LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET. ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSES JUST TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY WITH GFS SQUEEZING OUT
SOME LIGHT QPF. ECMWF/WRF-NAM AND PARALLEL GFS KEEP LIGHT PRECIP TO
OUR NORTH...SO HAVE OPTED TO HANG ONTO A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW FOR
SUNDAY BUT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS OF COURSE.

NEXT WEEK A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE IS FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HEMISPHERE WITH SIGNIFICANT LONG WAVE TROUGH
SETTING UP OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTERN CONUS. THE SYSTEM THAT WILL EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT THE DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE REGION IS ACTUALLY THE SAME SIGNIFICANT STORM THAT
JUST AFFECTED JAPAN...SO IT HAS A LONG FAIRLY AND DATA SPARSE REGION
OF THE PACIFIC TO TRAVERSE BEFORE ARRIVING IN OUR AREA. AS IS
TYPICAL WITH LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGES...THERE HAVE BEEN
SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN MODEL VARIATIONS IN THE HANDLING OF THE
DETAILS OF THIS CYCLONE/DEVELOPING TROUGH AND WOULD ANTICIPATE
FURTHER CHANGES IN LATER MODEL RUNS.

AT THIS POINT...FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A STORMIER AND
EVENTUALLY COLDER PATTERN WILL SETTLE IN NEXT WEEK. INITIALLY LOOKS
TO BE MORE OF A RAIN/SHOWER EVENT EARLY IN THE WEEK TRANSITIONING TO
MORE FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LOW SETTLES IN OVER THE
REGION. LATEST RUNS REALLY ARENT LOOKING TOO FOREBODING FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL...BUT AT THIS POINT WOULD REALLY CAUTION ABOUT
LATCHING ONTO ANY ONE SOLUTION AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE MODEL
VARIABILITY IN THE COMING DAYS. CERTAINLY SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
TRAVEL IMPACTS HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

IZZI

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...

* MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
  FRI MORNING. POSSIBLE DIP TO CIGS ARND 1400FT AGL OVERNIGHT.

BEACHLER

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND THE LACK OF MIXING...IT IS LIKELY
THAT THE MVFR CIGS THAT HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT ACROSS THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. TO THE NORTH OF THE TAF SITES CIGS HAVE
DIPPED IN A FEW LOCATIONS TO ARND 1400FT AGL. SOME GUIDANCE IS
BEGINNING TO INDICATE THAT CIGS COULD DIP FURTHER AT ORD/MDW
CLOSER TO 1400-1600FTAGL OVERNIGHT. FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL REMAIN
NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY BETWEEN 4-7KT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 18 HOURS POSSIBLY 24 HOURS. CIGS COULD
EVENTUALLY PUSH BACK TO VFR LATE FRI MORNING...BUT THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE RECENT PAST.

BEACHLER

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.

BEACHLER

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

* SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...DRY/VFR. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.
* MONDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW. MVFR LIKELY. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS.
* TUESDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW. IFR LIKELY. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW. MVFR LIKELY. STRONG/GUST WEST WINDS.

BEACHLER

&&

.MARINE...

230 PM...DEEP LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA
WHILE A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO TO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND WILL EXTEND FROM QUEBEC
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO VERY SLOW SPREAD TO THE EAST ACROSS THE
LAKES...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A PERIOD FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE HIGH BUILDS EAST WILL
SET UP LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE LAKE. THIS INITIAL TROUGH
WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO DROP OUT OF THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN ROCKIES BY SUNDAY
EVENING...HELPING TO DEEPEN THE TROUGH INTO A CLOSED LOW. THIS LOW
IS THEN EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST TO WISCONSIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND AS
THE LOW GETS CLOSER TO THE LAKE...THE SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WILL
STRENGTHEN TO 20 TO 25 KT AS THE LOW DEEPENS AS IT APPROACHES THE
LAKE.

KREIN

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

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