Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL

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FXUS63 KLOT 090835
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
335 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

.DISCUSSION...
335 AM CDT

LOW HUMIDITY AND MILD CONDITIONS ON TAP THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE A TRANSITION TOWARD WARMER...MORE
HUMID...AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS JUST IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.

WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT IS WORKING ITS WAY DOWN THE LAKE EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHEAST AND A DECENT PUSH OF MARINE
COOLING AND SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG NEAR THE LAKE. GIVEN THE DRIER
AIR MASS UPSTREAM...ANTICIPATE ANY LAKE CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD MIX OUT
PRETTY READILY BY MID TO LATE MORNING...THOUGH WINDS OFF THE LAKE
THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S AT THE BEACHES TODAY
WHILE INLAND TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 70S. MINUS THE LAKE CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS BEING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER...THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A
CARBON COPY OF TODAY.

THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE HAS LARGELY SLOWED THE DEPARTURE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AND RETURN OF BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LATER THIS
WEEK. THIS COULD RESULT IN MOST OF FRIDAY POTENTIALLY ENDING UP
DRY...ESPECIALLY EASTERN CWA. RAIN CHANCES WILL RAMP UP FRIDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A PERTURBED
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND
GENERALLY LOOK WARMER WITH MORE HUMIDITY...THOUGH ILL-TIMED MCS
AND/OR DEBRIS CLOUD COVER CERTAINLY COULD PLAY A ROLE IN KEEPING
TEMPS COOLER.

GFS/ECMWF BOTH REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON AMPLIFYING AND
UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION NEXT WEEK PROVIDING
FOR A PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. ECMWF HAS BEEN
DROPPING 850MB TEMPS INTO THE MID SINGLE DIGIT RANGE BY TUES/WED
WHICH IS GETTING TO THE LOWER BOUNDS OF WHAT WE SEE AROUND HERE IN
JULY. NOT UNCOMMON FOR MODELS TO BE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH COLD
SNAPS IN THE DAYS 6 AND BEYOND RANGE...BUT REGARDLESS IT LOOKS LIKE
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS NEXT WEEK ARE QUITE LIKELY.

IZZI

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* NE WINDS LIKELY BY MID OR LATE AFTERNOON WITH A LAKE BREEZE.
  SPEEDS NEAR 10 KT POSSIBLE.

* SMALL CHANCE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR/MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND
  DAYBREAK.

KJB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE LAKE
ACROSS WISCONSIN INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF SOME LOW IFR CIGS. THERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME OF THESE LOWER CLOUDS COULD MAKE IT
ACROSS THE TERMINALS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THEIR OCCURRENCE OVER THE TERMINALS REMAINS
VERY LOW AT THIS TIME. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THEIR SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IF ANY OF THESE LOW CLOUDS DO MAKE
IT OVER THE TERMINALS...THEY WOULD LIKELY IMPROVE VERY QUICKLY THIS
MORNING.

THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS DURING THE DAY...WILL BE THE WIND TRENDS.
THE COLD FRONT SHIFTING DOWN THE LAKE WILL LIKELY SHIFT THE WINDS
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES AFTER 10 UTC. IT IS A
BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME IF THE WINDS WILL STAY NORTHEASTERLY ALL
DAY...OR IF THE WINDS BECOME MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FOR A PERIOD
BY MID TO LATE MORNING...THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH A LAKE BREEZE. HOWEVER...WHICH EVER SCENARIO PLAYS
OUT...WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR JUST UNDER 10 KT.

KJB

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* MEDIUM IN NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT LOW ON
  EXACT TIMING.

* LOW WITH IFR/MVFR CLOUD POTENTIAL TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

KJB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

THURSDAY...VFR

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

MONDAY...VFR.

MDB

&&

.MARINE...
216 AM CDT

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE LAKE...WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING OUT OF THE NORTH DIRECTLY IN
ITS WAKE. IN SPITE OF THIS...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE
DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE WIND FIELD ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY INTO THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...LAKE BREEZE INFLUENCES WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN
ONSHORE FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING THE DAY TIME
HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC
COAST LATER IN THE WEEK. AS THIS OCCURS...IT SHOULD ALLOW THE FLOW
TO SHIFT BACK OUT OF THE SOUTH OVER THE LAKE INTO THE WEEKEND. IN
ADDITION...INCREASING MOISTURE AND ADDITIONAL WEATHER DISTURBANCES
LOOK TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN FOR FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

KJB

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

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