Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL
FXUS63 KLOT 042031
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
231 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016
209 PM CST
Moderate to heavy snow continues mid afternoon across northern
Illinois and northwest Indiana. This morning, a slow moving band
of snowfall set up across western portions of the CWA where over
6 inches of snow has fallen and that area had to be upgraded to a
Winter Storm Warning. The band eventually shifted east across
portions of the Chicago metro area where a few inches of snow
quickly accumulated and the band is now in the process of
reorienting along the I-80 corridor. Latest RAP shows the best
F-Gen focused along this corridor and shifting east out of the CWA
by late this afternoon or early evening. Already seeing some signs
of improvement west of the I-39 corridor and expect improvement
into the Chicago metro by around 23-00Z. There is some possibility
eastern counties may need a brief extension in headlines for an
hour or two but going to let the timing ride for now. Storm total
snow of 3 to 6 inches appears likely within the advisory area
including the Chicago metro with 1 to 4 inches south of the
advisory. Meanwhile, the warned counties of Ogle, Lee and Dekalb
are expected to finish out in the 5 to 9 inch range.
Expect overcast to mostly cloudy conditions to persist overnight
with temperatures only dropping off a little...into the mid to
upper 20s west of the Fox River Valley and low 30s farther east.
Areas of fog appear possible, especially in the west with weak
surface ridging building into that area. BMD
Monday through Sunday...
231 pm...Forecast concerns included potential for mixed precip
Monday night/Tuesday morning...chance of snow Wednesday night/
Thursday morning and much colder for the middle/end of the week.
High pressure over the Ohio Valley will be moving east Monday
afternoon into Monday night. With the new snow pack and low sun
angle...expect high temps Monday to be below guidance levels even
if some sunshine develops though low level moisture fields would
suggest that some low cloud cover could remain with increasing
mid/high clouds later Monday.
Models remain fairly similar with one low moving northeast
through the Ohio Valley/Mid Atlantic Tuesday and a second low
moving across the upper midwest Monday night and into Ontario
Tuesday...with a trailing cold front moving across the area on
Tuesday. There has been some consistency with the low moving
across the Ohio Valley remaining far enough to the southeast that
precip would only reach the far southeast cwa late Monday night
into Tuesday morning. Only the NAM remains further northwest
across the cwa and confidence with this solution is low. Mainly
chance pops with this system but confidence regarding where the
precip actually occurs is low. Thermal profiles continue to
suggest that precip would be a mix and possibly rain or freezing
rain depending on surface temps. With the new snow pack...its
likely that temps will drop to then hover near freezing Monday
night into Tuesday morning...before slowly warming. Too close to
call from this distance but some mention of light freezing rain
seems prudent at this time. If temps end up a few degrees warmer
or the precip shield continues to shift to the east...then changes
to precip type/timing can be expected.
Cold air begins to spread into the area Tuesday and continues
through the end of the week. Models continue to try to develop
light snow across the area Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday
night as the coldest air arrives. The Ecmwf is most developed...
though still a weak surface low through the Ohio Valley.
Confidence regarding system development and associated snow
remains low with just chance pops for this time period.
Another wave rotates across the area Thursday/Thursday evening
that could bring some snow showers or light snow to the area.
Wind direction with the colder air should keep any significant
lake effect snow east of Porter County but still chance mention
for far northeast Porter County later in the week. A clipper like
system is possible next weekend but too early for any specifics
with this system. cms
For the 18Z TAFs...
Snow, heavy at times, has overspread northern Illinois and
northwest Indiana and is expected to produce a few inches of
accumulations with, on the high end, the potential for around 5-6
inches under the heaviest band. Warm pavement temps may mitigate
the accumulations on runways to some degree, but with snow
increasing in intensity, accumulations are still expected.
Visibility will continue to run between half and three quarters of
a mile though late this afternoon, then expect to see some
improvement as the better forcing begins to shifts east. Snow will
continue into the early evening then could briefly transition to a
light flurry or drizzle before ending mid evening. Forecast
soundings show IFR conditions holding on overnight so have trended
ceilings down from previous forecast with low confidence on
improving to MVFR this forecast period.
301 AM CST
Somewhat benign conditions will be found across the lake to start
the week, with gusty west-northwest taking hold for the latter
High pressure across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will move
east today. Meanwhile, a surface pressure trough across the Upper
Midwest will spread east across northern Lake Michigan tonight
into Monday. Another low pressure system will move into the upper
Midwest on Monday as weak high pressure spreads northeast through
the Ohio Valley. Quickly on the heels of the high, another low
will move in a similar fashion from the southern plains to the
Ohio Valley Tuesday. The result of these pressure patterns will be
a shift to west winds tonight and then a return to southwest
Monday and a portion of Tuesday.
Things get more active mid to late week as strong high pressure
will move into the northern plains Wednesday and into the nation`s
heartland by early Friday, while low pressure across Ontario will
shift east through Canada and merge with low pressure off the
Canadian maritimes by the weekend. These features allow a strong
cold front to shift across the lake late Tuesday and continue
under gusty wnw winds through at least Friday. Winds to 30 kt
seem a lock, and given the strong cold advection mixing should not
be a problem, but model winds above the surface are not much
higher. Will continue with a mention of gales in the GLF, with the
most likely period late Thursday into early Friday.
IL...Winter Storm Warning...ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011 UNTIL 6 PM Sunday.
Winter Weather Advisory...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ012-
UNTIL 6 PM Sunday.
IN...Winter Weather Advisory...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 6 PM Sunday.
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