Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL

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FXUS63 KLOT 162027

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
327 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

146 PM CDT

Through Tonight...

The area of showers and thunderstorms have pushed well east of the
region.  for the remainder of the afternoon, main concern will be
the progression of a back door cold front pushing quickly down
Lake Michigan this afternoon. As of 2:00 PM CDT, the front is
pushing through the UGN area. Expect that the front should make a
little more swd progress, reaching the Chicago area, but likely
hanging up closer the IL/WI border further inland. The short range
guidance is in a bit of disarray in handling the swd progression
of the front, but feel that the general trend should be that the
front will not make much more swd progression well inland, but
should reach the Chicago metro area. The main effect with this
would be to limit any further warming over far nern IL this
afternoon while allowing the remainder of the area to increase a
couple more degrees before sunset. Even so, mat temps today will
top out well above normal for mid October. With the front pushing
to the Chicago Metro area, low stratus and patchy fog are likely
to hang around with perhaps a few sprinkles near the lake.
However, additional wetting pcpn chances for the remainder of this
afternoon and evening are low enough to just go with a dry
forecast. The next concern will be timing of the front moving back
north as a warm front. for the past several days, the models have
been consistently advertising this idea and still feel that the
front will surge north again late this evening, with winds turning
back to more southerly. Wind speeds should increase through the
night, and become more gusty into the early morning hours. With
the front surging back north overnight, the temperature trend
overnight should be fairly flat, with temps only dropping into the
middle to upper 60s. Dewpoints will also be unseasonably high,
closely following the temperature trend. Would normally anticipate
warm advection fog overnight under more typical conditions, but
with a warm, moist air mass already in place and winds increasing
overnight, keeping the boundary layer stirred up, do not expect
dense fog to form, but there could be some misty conditions.


304 PM CDT

Monday through Sunday...

The main forecast concerns continue to center around the very
warm (near record warmth) and windy conditions expected over the
area Monday and Monday night.

A strong 130+ KT upper-level jet max, associated with an upper-
level trough currently shifting over the western CONUS, is
expected to induce another surface low over the central Plains
tonight. The low will then deepen to a stout sub 990 mb low as it
shifts northeastward over the Upper Great Lakes Monday evening. As
this occurs, a surface frontal boundary currently across southern
Wisconsin and far northern Illinois will be driven northward out
of the area as a warm front. While this system is not expected to
produce any precipitation over our area on Monday, it will
produce windy and very warm conditions over the area. Expect
south-southwesterly winds to develop area-wide Monday morning,
with increasing speeds through the afternoon and evening in
response to strong surface pressure falls developing over the
Western Great Lakes. Winds look to become gusty as high as 35 to
40 MPH over the area by Monday afternoon with breezy conditions
likely to continue during the evening. These strong winds will
also allow for unseasonably warm conditions to shift northward
over the area. As a result, expect high temperatures on Monday
look to be in the low to perhaps mid 80s, which is not far off the
records for the time of year (see climo section for the records).

The storm system is expected to shift into western Quebec on
Tuesday. As this occurs, an attendant cold front will likely shift
over the area, with some breezy westerly winds likely in its wake.
It appears that the front will come through mainly precipitation
free. However, there is a small chance that a few showers could
develop with the front over portions of the area. However, at this
time we have opted to continue a dry forecast at this time.
Expect temperatures to become more seasonal following this
frontal passage, especially for Wednesday and Thursday, when
highs will be in the 60s.

Another weather disturbance is expected to impact the portions of
the Mid-Mississippi valley and into the Ohio valley by mid to late
week. This system could produce another period of rain for
portions of the area. However, there are still uncertainties on
how far north into Illinois this rain could end up. For this
reason, were have continued to only mention small chances of rain.
At this time it appears the main rain threat could stay over
central Illinois and Indiana, in closer proximity to the remnant
surface frontal boundary.




415 AM CDT October 15th

Record/near record high minimum and maximum temperatures are
possible Sunday and Monday based off the current forecast. Below
are the current records that could be threatened.

October 16th
Record High Min for Rockford: 65 in 1968

October 17th
Record High Max for Chicago: 86 in 1950
Record High Max for Rockford: 87 in 1950

Record High Min for Chicago: 63 in 1998
Record High Min for Rockford: 61 in 1998



For the 18Z TAFs...

As the area of showers and thunderstorms moves off to the east,
main concern for the remainder of the period will focus on
cigs/vis/winds. Following the passage of the area of pcpn, a
relatively warm, moist air mass is in place with a mixed bag of
mvfr-ifr cigs/vis covering the region. A cold front is pushing
south down Lake Michigan with winds turning nely behind the front.
Winds have already shifted to nely at KENW and the front should
continue to push quickly to the south. Expect a winds shift at the
Chicago area terminals btwn 19-20z, though do not expect wind
speeds to reach higher than 5-8kt. Still have some concern that
the front will stall out across northern IL, far enough south to
light ely-nely winds through the afternoon and potentially spread
LIFR cig/vis inland from Lake Michigan. Still have low confidence
in just how low conditions will get at ORD/MDW, though will
maintain the trend for 500 ft cigs and 3SM vis toward evening.
With weak frontal zone stalling across area and unseasonably moist
low-level air mass, the potential for low cigs and at least MVFR
vis appears fairly high across the area through this evening,
with guidance hinting at a little diurnal bump into MVFR range for
cigs this afternoon. The front should begin to lift back north of
the area after midnight tonight, with winds shifting back to the
south and increasing. This should also help improve IFR/MVFR
conditions going into the morning hours. The main concern will
then shift to gusty south winds through the day, with gusts of
25-30 kt for the afternoon hours.


327 PM CDT

A rather active period of weather is expected over the lake
through Tuesday. Currently a surface boundary over southern
sections of the lake will begin to shift northward over the lake
tonight as a trough of low pressure develops over the Upper
Midwest. This will lead to an increase in southeast winds tonight
over the northern half of the lake, with south winds developing
over southern lake Michigan. Wind speeds of 25 to 30 KT will be
possible late tonight into Monday morning. Wind speeds may then
ease a bit into Monday afternoon, before increasing again late
Monday and Monday evening as another strengthening area of low
pressure shifts over the Upper Great Lakes. This second low will
likely result in 30 KT southerly winds over the lake, with the
possibility for some gale force gusts as well, especially Monday

Small craft advisory winds are likely in the near shore
waters Monday through early Tuesday. Therefore a small craft
advisory has been issued for this period.



LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
     LMZ745...10 AM Monday TO 10 AM Tuesday.




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