Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL

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FXUS63 KLOT 280846

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
346 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

306 AM CDT

Through tonight...

The main weather concerns are for the potential of some
strong thunderstorms over portions of the area...especially this

a few widely scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will be
possible today. This may end up especially being the case east of I-
57 as some weak mid level disturbances shift northward over the
area. However...most areas look to be dry for much of the day...and
as a result...I have lowered POPS to just slight chances in most
areas. However...the chances of more storms will be gradually
increasing over north central and northwestern Illinois late this
afternoon...and especially this evening.

An upper level trough...currently over the Plains...will gradually
shift northeastward to the upper Mississippi Valley by this evening.
This system will likely spawn additional thunderstorms to our west
over eastern Iowa this close proximity to the
entrance region of an 80 KT upper level jet...and as diurnal
destabilization maximizes. This activity then looks to progress
eastward into northern Illinois into the early evening. The main
question with this activity is how far eastward will it progress
before weakening. Many of the Convective Allowing Models
(CAMs)suggest this activity will weaken quickly through the evening
as the storms shift towards northeastern Illinois. While this
certainly seems plausible given the poor diurnal timing...I still
have mentioned higher end chance POPS into the Chicago area later
this evening as I think some storms could still persist this far

Some stronger storms will be possible early this
evening...especially over north central and northwestern Illinois.
Farther east...the expected weakening trend with the convection
should limit the severe threat. These storms could present a hail
risk...along with some locally strong wind gusts given the higher
DCAPE values. This activity looks to wane during the late evening
and overnight as it shifts eastward.



345 AM CDT

Sunday through Friday...

The upper trough mentioned above will shift over southern WI and
northern IL by midday Sunday. This should help drive some
scattered diurnal shower and storm development again on Sunday. this time it appears the best chance of storms may
remain to our north in WI...but we cannot rule out a few storms
getting as far south as northern Illinois. Otherwise...Sunday is
looking dry for most areas...with temperatures again getting into
the lower 80s.

Our next good chance of showers and storms looks to enter the
picture for Tuesday and Wednesday. Model guidance/ensembles are in
good agreement with the development of another storm system over the
Dakotas into the Upper Midwest by Tuesday. This storm system looks
to push a cold front across the area by Wednesday evening. A period
or two of thunderstorms will be possible over the area ahead of
this frontal boundary. However...once it passes Wednesday
night...the threat of precip will come to an end...with the rest
of the week looking to be on the dry and cooler side.



For the 06Z TAFs...

The main concern through the TAF period is with timing the
potential for thunderstorms.

Deep south-southwest flow will persist across the area through
Saturday evening...with warm...moist air mass remaining in place
across the terminals. Forecast soundings indicate this air mass
will become conditionally unstable by this afternoon...with a low
potential for isolated shra/tsra hard to rule out at any particular
time given the potential for subtle minor amplitude mid-level
disturbances to ripple northward ahead of a deeper upper trough
over the central Plains. It appears that Saturday evening will see
the greatest potential for more organized shra/tsra a
stronger mid-level disturbance wraps around the base of the trough
to the west of the area and rotates northeastward into the upper
Midwest. With late afternoon and early evening peak in diurnal
instability and aforementioned forcing aloft...model guidance has
been relatively consistent in depicting thunderstorm development
to the west of the terminals across eastern IA..southwest WI and
western IL. closer proximity to convective development
late in the afternoon likely has a bit higher threat of tsra by
early evening. Threat for Chicago area terminals appears to be
more mid-late evening with model guidance indicating an decaying
line of tsra approaching by 03-04z. While signal for decaying
convection farther to the east is consistent with several models
and over successive runs...forecast soundings indicate sufficient
instability for tsra to continue to move east into Chicago area
should an organized outflow or MCV provide forcing for continued
eastward development. Brief MVFR cig/vis conditions would be
likely with thunderstorms.

Otherwise...south winds will likely gust 20-25 kts later this
morning through this afternoon.



214 AM CDT

Relatively quiet period for marine weather...with the only issues
being some lingering dense fog over northern parts of the lake and
breezy south winds today and tonight. No recent visibility
observations...though model forecasts indicate fog should become
less widespread with time this morning/today. Will maintain
current dense fog advisory into this afternoon... though would
expect it could be cancelled earlier.

A diffuse area of low pressure was over the central Plains early
this morning...with a warm front arcing across the upper Midwest
and about two thirds of the way up the lake. This low will lift
slowly to the northeast over the weekend...reaching the upper
Mississippi Valley by this evening and moving across far western
Lake Superior by early Sunday. As the low...and the warm front...
move north...winds will shift to the south across the lake. Winds
will gust into the 20-25 kt range today...and 15-20 kt later
tonight and Sunday. Winds across WI and IL will shift west-
southwest behind a cold front on Sunday with gusts 20-25 kt also
affecting the immediate western shore of the lake. Cool water and
warm air will make for a stable marine boundary layer over the
open waters resulting in lighter winds away from shore especially
on the southern part of the lake. The low will continue to pull
slowly away to the northeast of the Great Lakes early next week
with a weaker surface pressure gradient across the lakes bringing
lighter winds. Another low may lift across the upper Midwest mid-
week...with another frontal passage Wednesday or Wednesday night.






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