Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL

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FXUS63 KLOT 150743
AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
243 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017


.SHORT TERM...
241 AM CDT

Through tonight...

The heavy rain threat has ended across the region, so the flash
flood watch will be allowed to expire. An area of many light to
occasionally moderate rain showers continues across the I-55
corridor and points east early this morning. This area of rain
will gradually shift to the southeast this morning as a surface
cold front sweeps eastward over the area. Therefore, expect the
rain to end all together by early to mid morning.

The parent surface low has deepened to right around 1000 MB early
this morning, and is currently centered near Oshkosh, WI. Expect
this surface low to continue deepening down to around 990 MB
through the day as it shifts east-northeastward into southern
Ontario by this evening. As it does so, a strong cold front, now
approaching the Mississippi River, will sweep eastward across
northern IL and northwestern IN early this morning. Winds will
turn west-northwest and become quit gusty with its passage. Due
to the fast movement of this deepening low, strong pressure rises
of 8-10 MB/6hr are expected to overspread the area following the
frontal passage. The associated isallobaric response to this will
likely drive a short 1-2 hour period of very gusty winds up to
around 40 MPH around, or shortly after daybreak. Following this,
wind gusts will remain elevated through the day, but should
settle back down around 30 MPH this afternoon.

Temperatures behind this front are expected to go nowhere today.
In fact it appears that the current temperatures will be the highs
for the day. During the daylight hours, temperatures are likely
to reside in the 50s as a cooler airmass filters in over the area.
It also appears that in spite of the fact that the rain will be
ending, the cloud cover will not. Mostly cloudy skies will persist
through much of the day, but some breaks in the clouds are
possible this afternoon.

Surface high pressure will gradually build eastward from the
Central Plains through the day. As this occurs, expect wind speeds
to begin to abate across the area this evening. A gradual decrease
in cloud cover this evening should also set the stage for a very
chilly night across the region. Low temperatures tonight look to
drop down near 40, with mid to upper 30s also a good bet over
inland areas of Illinois. While some frost may develop late
tonight, it appears that it will remain relatively patchy across
portions of northern IL.

KJB

&&

.LONG TERM...
241 AM CDT

Monday through Saturday...

High pressure will remain dominate across much of the eastern
CONUS for much of next week. Overall, this looks to set up an
extended period of dry and increasingly mild weather for the
area. Temperatures are expected to warm back into the 70s by the
middle of next week.

KJB

&&

.AVIATION...
For the 06Z TAFs...

Concerns:
-Lingering SHRA with occasional TS
-Timing wind shifts and gusty WNW winds around 30 kt.
-MVFR cigs behind the cold front

The rain is not quite done yet, but thunder coverage is lowering
considerably. There will still be some VCTS over the next few
hours largely along and south of a PNT-ORD line. Next concern will
then be timing the cold front. Still appears on track for around
11-1130Z near Chicago. The peak winds do not come right with the
front, but likely a few hours behind it in the more significant
pressure rises behind the front. With a somewhat low MVFR deck,
mixing will be somewhat limited, but gusts to around 30 kt are
likely for time this morning. As ceilings lift we will mix a bit
more but winds aloft will be diminishing a bit, but we still
expect gusts into the mid to upper 20s into the early to mid
afternoon. MVFR cigs will eventually lift later today. Higher
pressures arrive tonight and wind gusts will drop along with
clearing skies.

KMD

&&

.MARINE...
254 PM CDT

Low pressure over the mid Missouri Valley this afternoon will
continue to gradually deepen as it lifts across central Lake
Michigan late this evening and overnight. Strong southerly winds
develop south of the low track while moderately strong northeast
flow will be in place north of the low track through this evening.
Gales will develop across the lake this evening and overnight
ahead of the low, then as the low shifts east of Lake Michigan
Sunday morning, winds will further strengthen to 40-45 kt as
winds turn north to northwesterly and colder air overspreads the
region behind a strong cold front. Winds should very gradually
weaken through the day Sunday and drop back below gale force by
early to mid evening. South to southwest flow returns Monday and
is expected to stay in place through most of the upcoming week as
high pressure becomes anchored along the east coast. Flow may
strengthen to gale force or near gale force at times during the
upcoming week.

BMD

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Flash Flood Watch...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
     ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022
     until 4 AM Sunday.

IN...None.
LM...Gale Warning...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...7 AM
     Sunday to 4 PM Sunday.

     Small Craft Advisory...nearshore waters
     until 7 AM Sunday.

     Gale Warning...LMZ777-LMZ779 until 7 PM Sunday.

&&

$$

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