Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL

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000
FXUS63 KLOT 130342
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1041 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...
843 PM CDT

LAKE/OUTFLOW ENHANCE COLD FRONT HAS SEEPED SOUTHWARD INTO FAR NE
IL THIS EVENING AND STRETCHES WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. THE 00Z DVN AND ILX SOUNDINGS CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF
A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION BETWEEN 700-800MB THAT HAD BEEN OBSERVED
ON ACARS SOUNDINGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WARM SECTOR. THUS
FAR CONVECTION HAS REMAINED CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT
WHERE ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS LIFTING PARCELS TO THEIR LFC. FRONT MAY
MEANDER AROUND A BIT THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTED TO
GENERALLY REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY TONIGHT...MEANING THE BEST FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS WISCONSIN AND JUST NORTH OF
OUR CWA. SURFACE BASED WARM SECTOR CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING
IN COVERAGE OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA THIS EVENING AND IT IS THIS
CONVECTION THAT STANDS THE BEST CHANCE TO BRING OUR AREA RAIN
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF CAP AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LARGE
SCALE ASCENT TO ELIMINATE THE CINH IN THE WARM SECTOR...OUR BEST
THREAT OF RAIN WOULD BE THE CONVECTION IN IOWA CONGEALING INTO AN
MCS AND ROLLING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT THIS POTENTIAL...BUT ALSO SEEMS TO SUGGEST
A WEAKENING TREND AS CONVECTION MOVES INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS
OVERNIGHT. EXACT EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT IS SOMEWHAT
UNCLEAR...BUT CERTAINLY WOULD APPEAR THE BEST THREAT OF RAIN WOULD
BE NORTHWESTERN CWA WITH CHANCES TAPERING OFF SOUTH AND EAST FROM
THERE. HAVE MADE SOME MAINLY COSMETIC CHANGES TO POPS/WEATHER
OVERNIGHT.

IZZI

//PREV DISCUSSION...
359 PM CDT

A ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS RUMBLING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA PRODUCED STRONG WINDS AND HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES
IN DIAMETER.

HOWEVER...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL BE
WINDY AS WARM AS THE WARM FRONT BLASTED NORTH OF THE REGION.  DO NOT
EXPECT ANY MORE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...AND THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE THE CONTINUED STRONG SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND THEN THE TIMING OF MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  THE
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS SHOW THAT THE CWA IS
WELL ENTRENCHED IN WARM SECTOR AIR WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE...DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S AND TEMPERATURES
PEGGING 80 F.  LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY FOCUSED ALONG AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT
OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  WHILE THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY FORMING IN THE WARM SECTOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...THE FLAT APPEARANCE TO THE CU
FIELD WOULD INDICATE THAT THE THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL SLIGHTLY
STABLE AND MODEL SOUNDING SHOW THAT THERE IS STILL SOME WEAK
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION TO THE ATMOSPHERE.  THROUGH THE EVENING...THE
INHIBITION WILL ERODE AND THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR.  HOWEVER...THE
MAIN SHOW WILL BEGIN LATE THIS EVENING AS THE WHOLE SYNOPTIC SCALE
FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
ALOFT RIPPLES ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.  SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT WILL
HAVE A TWO-FOLD EFFECT.  ONE IMPACT WILL BE TO FOCUS AND ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHILE SLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF THE
BOUNDARY.  CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE THAT PCPN WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR
NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE ROCKFORD METRO AREA...NEAR
OR SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND THEN SLOWLY SAG SEWD...REACHING THE
CHICAGO METRO AREA AT OR SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK.

THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS EXPECT THAT THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE STRUNG OUT FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES BACK TO THE
MAIN SFC LOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS.  THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR SFC
BASED CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE OVERRUNNING REGION NORTH OF THE
SFC BOUNDARY.  THE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER.  THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM ILX INDICATED CLOSE TO 1 INCH
PWAT AND THE HIGH RES SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT PWATS
WILL ONLY INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH A
PERSISTENT FETCH OFF OF A WIDE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO. GIVEN THE HIGH
AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND THE SLOW
PROGRESSIVE OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...AND PCPN EVEN IN THE OVERRUNNING REGION
NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES.  ANTICIPATE
SOME SWD PROGRESSION TO THE BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN ANTICIPATE
THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...PIVOTING
AROUND SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY RIPPLING ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALOFT.  DURING THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...PWATS INVOF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES PER THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.  FOR
QPF...ANTICIPATE THAT THERE SHOULD BE AREAL AVERAGE PCPN AMOUNTS OF
AROUND 1 INCH PER 6 HOURS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY NEAR
HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS OR IN AREAS OF ECHO TRAINING.  THE BOUNDARY
WILL HAVE THE SLOWEST PROGRESSION FOR THE PERIOD FROM EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THERE IS RELATIVELY HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN A BAND OF PCPN OF AROUND 2 INCHES IN THE 18-24 HOUR
PERIOD WHEN THE FRONT IS QUASISTATIONARY OVER NRN IL.

THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN SHOULD BECOME MORE QUICKLY PROGRESSIVE BY
MONDAY MORNING AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACCELERATES ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG JET STREAM DIGGING SOUTH
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE LONG WAVE PATTERN ALONG UNDERGOES
SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION.  A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY COMBINED WITH AN BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL SET
UP FAST NWLY FLOW ALOFT...ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF EXTENDED COLD
ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF FROM HIGHS AROUND 80F TODAY AND MIDDLE
70S TOMORROW TO ONLY THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ON MONDAY.  CONTINUED
COLD ADVECTION WILL DROP HIGHS EVEN LOWER FOR TUESDAY WITH TEMPS
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.  AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WINDS
WILL DROP OFF AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD DIMINISH.  CONDITIONS FOR
TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE QUITE CHILLY WITH LOWS ACROSS THE CWA ONLY
IN THE 20S.  EVEN DOWNTOWN CHICAGO SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 30F.  WITH
THE COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME MEASURABLE SNOW MONDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THE
CURRENT TIME AS TO HOW MUCH SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE...OTHER THAN TO
MENTION THAT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME ACCUMULATION.

LOOKING INTO THE LONGER TERM...THERE SHOULD BE A GENERAL WARMING
TREND FROM  WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.  THE LONGER RANGE
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING SLOW PROGRESSION TO THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE
PATTERN WHILE BECOMING MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP WITH WITH THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE
BY THURSDAY...LEADING TO LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST DETAILS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.  THE GFS WANTS TO
DEVELOP SPLIT FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A CLOSED NRN STREAM
LOW OVER THE ND/SCNTRL CANADA BORDER AND A CLOSED SRN STREAM LOW
OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS.  THIS SCENARIO IS REFLECTED AT THE SFC
STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE UPPER MISSOURI VALLEY. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE ECMWF HAS A PHASED OPEN TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER RIDGING FROM THE NRN PLAINS
TOWARD CENTRAL CANADA.  ESSENTIALLY...THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE ABOUT 180 DEGREES OUT OF PHASE BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
THE GFS SEEMS OVERLY DEVELOPED WHEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF...AND HAVE
TRENDED THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE ECMWF...WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT THE SLOW WARMING TREND WITH LOW POPS.  ADMITTEDLY...THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST GIVEN THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES.

KREIN

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...

* SLOWLY INCREASING CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA LATE
* SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ANYTIME SUNDAY...BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE
  LATER IN DAY
* POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE WIND SHIFTS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
  EVENING
* INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CIGS VSBY LATE SUNDAY INTO
  SUNDAY EVENING

IZZI

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 03Z...

SHRA/TSRA OVER IOWA ARE CONSOLIDATING INTO A MORE ORGANIZED
SQUALL LINE...THOUGH THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY HOW WELL THAT LINE
WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATE
TONIGHT. STRONGEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WOULD SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS MAINTAINING THEMSELVES MORE NORTH OF THE
TERMINALS...BUT GIVEN THE INCREASING ORGANIZATION OF THE TSRA OVER
IOWA POTENTIAL COULD BE A BIT HIGHER THAT STORMS COULD LAST
LONG ENOUGH TO REACH CHICAGO TERMINALS. FOR NOW HAVE JUST
MAINTAINED SOME VCTS FOR A COUPLE HOURS AND WILL LET OVERNIGHT
SHIFT RE-EVALUATE IN A FEW HOURS.

IZZI

UPDATED 00Z...

A STRONG LAKE AND THUNDERSTORM ENHANCED COLD FRONT IS LURKING
ABOUT ABOUT 25SM NORTH OF KORD EARLY THIS EVENING AND HAD BEEN
MAKING SOME PROGRESS SOUTHWARD. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT TO NORTH SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF
TERMINALS TONIGHT...BUT REPEATED BOUTS OF TSRA OVER WISCONSIN AND
SOME SLACKENING OF THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AFTER SUNSET COULD ALLOW
BOUNDARY TO MOVE SOUTHWARD. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND WILL CLOSELY
MONITOR TRENDS THIS EVENING FOR POSSIBLE WIND SHIFT.

ACARS SOUNDINGS FROM ORD LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOW A STRONG
INVERSION IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD PREVENT SHRA/TSRA FROM DEVELOP
SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND AFFECT THE TERMINALS. ACTIVITY OVER
WISCONSIN COULD INCH SOUTHWARD WITH TIME TONIGHT BUT GREATER
THREAT OF TSRA AFFECTING THE TERMINALS IS WITH RECENT DEVELOPMENT
OVER IA. THESE SHRA/TSRA COULD CONGEAL INTO A CLUSTER AND MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATE TONIGHT. IF THESE STORMS DO INDEED
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IT COULD PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH AND LOCK IN
NORTHEAST WINDS AT ORD AND MOST OF THE TERMINALS ON SUNDAY. MODELS
ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE POSITIONING OF THE
FRONT AND IT IS ALMOST A TOSS UP WHAT DIRECTION WINDS WILL BE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE TWO MOST LIKELY CANDIDATES
BEING NORTHEAST OR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. SOME GUIDANCE EVEN SUGGESTS
THE FRONT COULD MEANDER BACK AND FORTH SUNDAY RESULTING IN
MULTIPLE WIND SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO NORTHEAST AND BACK AGAIN.

AFTER A POTENTIAL ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA LATE TONIGHT IT APPEARS SOME
BREAK IN PRECIP COULD OCCUR SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANCES INCREASE
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY EVENING WHEN HEAVY
RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE A POTENTIAL. AS COLD NORTHEAST WINDS LOCK IN
AND RAIN FALLS EXPECT A QUICK DETERIORATION TO IFR LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR MORE LIKELY SUNDAY EVENING.

IZZI

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TSRA REMAINING NORTH/WEST OF ORD/MDW
  THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING SOUTHERLY THROUGH LATE
  TONIGHT
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT
* ABSOLUTELY NO CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION FORECAST SUNDAY INTO
  SUNDAY EVENING
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING LATE SUNDAY INTO
  SUNDAY EVENING
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE SUNDAY OR
  SUNDAY EVENING...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING

IZZI

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

MONDAY...RAIN LIKELY EARLY. IFR LIKELY. CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW MON
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODERATELY STRONG NORTH WINDS.

TUESDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE...MAINLY EARLY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR PROBABLE.

FRIDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN. IFR POSSIBLE.

IZZI

&&

.MARINE...
215 PM CDT

A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD IS STILL EXPECTED OVER THE LAKE THROUGH
MONDAY. A STORM SYSTEM...CURRENT ACROSS THE PLAINS...IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT. THIS LOW
WILL DRAPE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
LAKE ON SUNDAY...JUST PRIOR TO ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
TRANSITIONING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ALONG THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

OVERALL...THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER COMPLEX WIND FORECAST ACROSS
THE LAKE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL CREATE
LARGE VARIATIONS IN WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS ACROSS DIFFERENT
SECTIONS OF THE LAKE. EASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE LAKE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
THIS FIRST LOW PASSES OVER THE LAKE. THE TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE LAKE
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFT OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE BY MONDAY MORNING AS
THE SECOND LOW PASSES.

THE MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...AS FAR AS HEADLINE
CRITERIA WINDS...WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
CONTINUING ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INDIANA NEAR SHORE
WATERS. STRONG SOUTH WINDS MAY CONTINUE HERE AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LOOKS TO REMAIN FARTHER NORTH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THIS COULD AGAIN
RESULT IN GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 KT DURING THE SUNDAY...POSSIBLY
REQUIRING THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT TO BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME I WILL HOLD OFF ON DOING THIS.

CONCERNS WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO THE GOOD POTENTIAL FOR NORTHERLY
GALES IN THE WAKE OF THIS SECOND LOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MUCH
COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO SPILL OVER THE LAKE ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF
THE IS LOW. IN ADDITION...A RATHER STOUT SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY BUILD IN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...WHICH COULD SUPPORT AROUND 40 KT
NORTHERLY GALES FOR A PERIOD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. I HAVE
OPTED TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR THIS PERIOD DUE TO THE RELATIVELY
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS.

KJB

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WILMETTE HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL
     4 AM SUNDAY.

     GALE WATCH...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...4 AM
     MONDAY TO 4 PM MONDAY.

     GALE WATCH...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
     LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872...10 PM SUNDAY TO 3 PM
     MONDAY.

     GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ874-LMZ876-
     LMZ878...3 AM MONDAY TO 3 PM MONDAY.

&&

$$

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