Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 280919
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
319 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY...WHICH WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT
ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVERAGE. VERY MILD 925 MB TEMPERATURES ABOVE
ZERO AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL TAP INTO SOME CONTINUED
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER
WILL IMPACT WARMING TODAY. THE MOST RECENT HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON
CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE
MIDDAY HOURS. THINK THE THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...FROM EAST CENTRAL SD INTO SOUTHWEST MN AND THE IOWA GREAT
LAKES ARE WILL HOLD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THE BULK OF THE DAY.
KEPT TEMPERATURES ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN THIS AREA.
IF CLOUDS LOOK LESS ABUNDANT...COULD SEE READINGS WARM ABOVE
FORECAST HIGHS. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO CLOUDS WITH THE ANTICIPATED
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE AFTERNOON. SOUTH CENTRAL SD INTO THE MISSOURI
VALLEY WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.

WITH THE FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA MID AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...CLOUDS WILL ROLL BACK INTO THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE WINDY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 40 TO 50 KT
WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS WILL LIKELY BE
NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL...ESPECIALLY WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 OR 45 MPH.
GIVEN THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AND ARE MARGINAL FOR AN ADVISORY...WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY
HEADLINES FOR NOW.

WITH LOW LEVEL STRATUS BLANKETING THE AREA OVERNIGHT...A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE DROPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA LATE EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. NOT MUCH MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND WHILE THE LOW
STRATUS DOES THICKEN...THE CLOUD MASS REMAINS LARGELY OUTSIDE THE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP
MAINLY IN OUR MN COUNTIES...WITH SOME PATCH DRIZZLE ALSO POSSIBLE.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THIS
AREA.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. IT WILL BE BREEZY WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA AND GOOD MIXING IN A COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME. IN
RESPONSE TO THE COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
EXITING SHORTWAVE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD 10 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY...TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S FROM EAST
CENTRAL SD THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN MN...TO UPPER 30S THROUGH THE MO
RIVER CORRIDOR. WINDS WILL DIE OFF ON THURSDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A
COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID TEENS THROUGH THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWA. TO THE WEST...IT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD WITH
AN ENSUING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING HIGH
PRESSURE...WITH LOWS GENERALLY LOWER 20S. FRIDAY WILL SEE WARMING
WITH A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN LOWER 30S NORTHEAST TO AS WARM AS THE MID
40S THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

ON SATURDAY NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS OUT OF WESTERN
CANADA AND SLIDES SOUTHWARD AS SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS TO THE
NORTH...CONVERGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STILL SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON HOW THIS SCENARIO EVOLVES...BUT DOES POTENTIALLY
BRING PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA FOR
LATER ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE
LOOKS TO BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH COOLING THERMAL
PROFILES AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE JAMES BAY BEGINS TO DRIVE COLDER
AIR SOUTHWARD. AT THIS POINT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE
RANGE OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IN OUR SOUTHEAST...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM FOR GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IF IT TRENDS
FARTHER TO THE NORTH. IT STILL WONT BE UNREASONABLY COLD ON SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S...BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL HAVE SETTLED INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY
MOSTLY IN THE TEENS. THE COLD AIR THEN LOOKS TO LINGER THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY...WITH SOME MODERATION POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MVFR CEILINGS JUST BRUSHING EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THE
START OF THE TAF PERIOD...AND MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER THOSE MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL EXPAND BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. GIVEN STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WIND PROFILE
WHICH SHIFTS FROM SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE...TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN
THE POTENTIAL STRATUS LAYER AND ABOVE...PREFER MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH
KEEP THE AREA LARGELY VFR. AREA TO WATCH MAY BE KHON...AS SATELLITE
SHOWING EITHER STRATUS OR FOG HUGGING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER PREFERRED MODELS WHICH KEEP THIS
JUST WEST OF KHON...AND THUS WILL CARRY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH SUNSET WEDNESDAY.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS AND INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
TRAIL SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY 3-6 HOURS...AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN
ALOFT AFTER 29/00Z. FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25-30+ KTS LIKELY WEDNESDAY
EVENING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JH



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