Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 151034
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
534 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

A NICE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WITH DECENT LOWER AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE SUPPORTING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS
MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY SO ONLY
ANTICIPATE CARRYING RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA
THROUGH ABOUT MID TO LATE MORNING. AFTER THIS EXPECT MUCH DRIER AIR
TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA SO A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. WINDS IN THE
MIXED LAYER NOT REAL STRONG SO WINDS AT THE SURFACE SHOULD REMAIN IN
CHECK THROUGH THE DAY. DID ADD SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS TO
THE FORECAST GRIDS AS THE COOL AND MARGINALLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT AS WE GRADUALLY MIX THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE WAVE A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE...SO HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE MOST LOCATIONS.

BY TONIGHT A QUICK MOVING HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. DECENT
RADIATIONAL DROP OFF EXPECTED SO LOWERED LOWS A BIT. NOT A PERFECT
SET UP FOR FOG BUT EXPECT SOME LOW LYING RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP.
LOWS MAINLY UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

TUESDAY WILL START GENERALLY CLEAR. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW AHEAD
OF APPROACHING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INS LIKELY TO BRING SOME LOW
CLOUDS IN LATE IN THE DAY. THIS STRETCH SHOULD MOVE EAST OVER THE
EASTERN ESPECIALLY SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT TO PRODUCE LIFT AND
INSTABILITY IS ALSO WEAK...SO HAVE CUT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WE HAD IN FOR THE SOUTHEAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. NAM
AND GFS ALSO SHOW THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING ALREADY SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA BY THAT TIME. FOR WEDNESDAY...BACK DOOR FRONT SEEMS
LIKELY TO OOZE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST BUT WILL BE
WEAKENING OR EVEN DISSIPATING AS IT ARRIVES. HAVE DECREASED CLODS
AGAIN BY LATE WEDNESDAY THOUGH THAT IS NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE...SINCE
THE DISSIPATION OF THE FRONT MAY ALLOW THE MOISTURE INFLOW TO BE
STUBBORN.

TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL WARM A LITTLE..AND THIS
WARMING SHOULD PICK UP THURSDAY AS RIDGING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
BECOMES STRONGER. WILL GO WITH THE GUIDANCE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGE IS FLATTENED BY THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
SHOULD BE DRY WITH SLIGHT COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 532 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

RAIN WILL EXIT THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 16Z. AFTER THIS VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. PATCHY LOW LYING FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...08



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