Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 051750
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1150 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 307 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

Colder temperatures and occasional light snow chances will be the
main story through the rest of the week.

The low pressure system that brought our abrupt arrival into winter
continues to push into the Great Lakes region. While northwest winds
have decreased some, they remain elevated with gusts to 30 mph.
These breezy to gusty northwest winds will continue through the day
and into Tuesday night. A vort lobe and fractured mid level
frontogenesis could bring some additional light snow chances by
late afternoon into the overnight hours. Nailing down the exact
placement and extent of this snowfall will be tricky with the
parallel movement to the banded orientation. Regardless, amounts
currently look light (less than an inch) with the most favored
location between Sioux Falls and Chamberlain.

High temperatures will remain below the freezing mark for most
locations with wind chills in the single digits or colder. Overnight
lows Tuesday night will run in the mid teens to mid 20s with perhaps
some lower teens across SW Minnesota closer to the upper level cold
pool.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 307 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

No big changes in the extended forecast with a continuation of
north/northwest flow aloft allowing for reinforcing pieces of cold
air. Highs will remain in the 20s to low 30s thru the rest of the
work week with lows in the teens or perhaps a tad colder Wednesday
night. Lowered temperatures a degree or two in areas that received
some of the better snow cover earlier today. Could also see spotty
flurries as the dendritic layer occasional saturates. Some
moderation in temperatures is possible by the weekend with the
upper trough pulling east and a building ridge to the west.
Confidence in these details still remains very low though with
GEFS members running nearly a 30 degree spread in temperatures and
the ECMWF hinting at denting the ridge via a shortwave dropping
down in the NW flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1150 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

Northwest winds will continue to gust in the 20 to 30 kt range
during the daylight hours today. Overnight, low level cloud decks
will develop, along with a possibility for a few hours of light
snow. KHON has the best chance of additional snow accumulations, but
these should stay under an inch. Breezy conditions return after
sunrise Wednesday, with any lingering snow showers ending by the
afternoon.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kalin
LONG TERM...Kalin
AVIATION...VandenBoogart



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