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000
FXUS63 KFSD 261137
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
637 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

AREA OF ELEVATED SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING/SLOWLY
EXPANDING IN NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...IN
AREA OF THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF SUBTLE MID LEVEL WAVE. TOUGH TO
GET A GOOD HANDLE ON HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE THROUGH THE DAY AS MODELS
SHOWING A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE FIRST 6-9 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. GREATEST CONSENSUS GRADUALLY SHIFTS THE FOCUS TO
THE SOUTHEAST...AS MID LEVEL WAVE SHIFTS EAST BUT WEAK LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS KEEPS CONTINUOUS FEED OF DRIER AIR INTO THE NORTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS SEEMS A REASONABLE IDEA AND WAS GENERALLY
FOLLOWED...THOUGH KEEPING FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOWER THAN MOST
GUIDANCE...SOME OF WHICH PRODUCE BULLS-EYES NEAR AN INCH OR MORE IN
3-6 HOURS. ASIDE FROM SCATTERED PRECIP THREAT...ANTICIPATE ANOTHER
HUMID DAY WITH PRE-FRONTAL DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

EXPECT ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY TO WANE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...
WITH CLEARING AND SHARPLY LOWER DEW POINTS MOVING INTO FAR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON AS COOL FRONT MOVES IN. THIS
PROGRESSES EAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA THIS EVENING...AND EXITS THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER BY DAYBREAK...LEADING TO A MORE COMFORTABLE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WILL NOT TAKE LONG ON SUNDAY FOR BRISK WINDS TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE...LIKELY THE FIRST TWO TO THREE HOURS OF THE MORNING.
WILL BE A WINDY DAY...GUSTING AT TIMES TO 30 TO 35 MPH. MAINLY
STABLE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD WILL ALSO DEVELOP FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE
VERY CYCLONIC AND COLD ADVECTIVE REGIME.  OVERALL LARGE SCALE
FORCING IS QUIET SUBSIDENT...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WHICH SHOULD LIMIT DIABATIC CUMULUS DEPTH.
TEMPS EVEN IN THE FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WHICH MANAGE CLOUDS UP
TOWARD 700 HPA FAIL TO SUGGEST ANY IMPACTFUL ICE PROCESS...SO NOT
LOOKING FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO BE A FEATURE OF THIS
CLOUD FIELD.  ADDED IN A COUPLE OF SPRINKLES FROM LATER MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...AS ANY LIFTING
PROCESS HERE SHOULD BE QUITE SHALLOW.

COULD BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS HANGING AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS IN BROAD NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND
THE UNSEASONABLY COOL UPPER TROUGH...AND WITH RIDGE AXIS THROUGH
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL DAKOTAS YET ON MONDAY...WILL BE ABLE TO
GET A LITTLE BETTER MIXING AGAIN FOR SOME WINDS TO AROUND 15 MPH.
LOWERED DEWPOINTS SOME EACH MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY CLOSER TO MIXED NUMBERS WHICH WERE PRETTY CONSISTENT
BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS TIME AROUND.  STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART ARE A BIT WARMER THAN RAW MIXING
COULD ATTAIN.

A MORE AMPLIFIED SYSTEM NOW LOOKS TO SET UP A STABLE WESTERN
RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...PLACING
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SQUARELY IN A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. AFTER
A BIT BREEZY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...THIS UPCOMING WEEK COULD
ACTUALLY END UP ONE OF THE LEAST WINDY PERIODS OF THE SUMMER...
AS IT IS VERY HARD TO SCRAPE UP EVEN 10 KNOTS FOR THE MIXED LAYER
UNTIL PERHAPS WEEKS END. FOR THE MOST PART...HAVE TREATED THINGS
IN A SOMEWHAT MODIFIED PERSISTENCE MODE...AS WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE
SMALL ALTERATIONS IN TEMPERATURES FROM DAY TO DAY. SHADED OVERNIGHT
LOWS TOWARD THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...IF NOT BELOW...GIVEN
ENSEMBLE SIGNALS OF DRIFTING BELOW OPERATIONAL NUMBERS AND AWAY
FROM CLIMATOLOGY. FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD HAS 850 HPA TEMPS FROM
1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. ALSO...TRAJECTORY WILL
BECOME MORE AND MORE FAVORABLE FOR RETURN TO SMOKY CONDITIONS FROM
NORTHERN CANADIAN FIRES...AND THIS COULD HAVE A MINOR IMPACT ON
MAINLY DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK...SO HAVE FURTHER HEDGED
JUST A BIT TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE ON HIGHS AS WELL.

MOST SOLUTIONS INDICATE SEVERAL ILL-TIMED AND ILL-DEFINED WAVES IN
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH SWING THROUGH EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...AS WELL AS A WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA SOMETIME IN THE WED NIGHT TO FRIDAY WINDOW.
WOULD BE PRETTY SURPRISED TO NOT END UP WITH SOME TYPE OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK CONSIDERING HOW COOL ALOFT IT
REMAINS. HOWEVER...JUST TOO DIFFICULT TO FAVOR ANY PARTICULAR PERIOD
OR LOCATION FOR MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME...AND HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. TSRA MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT
KFSD THROUGH EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY
BRUSHING KHON THROUGH 14Z. LEFT MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF KSUX
AS GREATER COVERAGE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH. CONDITIONS
EVEN WITHIN SHRA/TSRA GENERALLY VFR...THOUGH BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY
POSSIBLE. ALSO STILL SEEING MVFR-LOCALLY IFR VISIBILITY IN BR ACROSS
OUR EASTERN AND FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT THIS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY
14Z-15Z. SHRA/TSRA SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AFTER 18Z-19Z AS MID
LEVEL WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE REGION...THEN SHOULD SEE CLEARING BY
EVENING AS DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...JH