Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 282018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
318 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Upper level low pressure will spread southeast across the plains
tonight, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms to areas
mainly west of the James Valley. Nothing organized and not expecting
any severe thunderstorms. This threat will last into the overnight
hours with the chances lingering along the Missouri River Valley
into Friday morning. Otherwise it should be another mild night and
Friday another mild day. Lows will range from 55 to 60 in southwest
Minnesota to the mid 60s in south central SD. Highs Friday will range
from the mid 70s in northwest Iowa to the lower 80s along and west of
the James Valley.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Southeast flow Friday night is expected to lead to an increase in
near surface moisture.  This will certainly result in increasing dew
points, and may see some stratus or fog develop especially along and
east of I-29 where winds will be the lightest.

Warming trend expected through the weekend into early next week.
With the gulf wide open, expect dew points to climb back into the
upper 60s and lower 70s.  With the sultry air in place, will see
heat indices approach 100 on Monday into Tuesday.  Upper ridge isn`t
overly strong, and still see some sporadic shortwaves tracking
through the area creating remote chances of precip. Have attempted
to concentrate pops on stronger forcing, which is really hard to pin
point this time of year.  Have concentrated pops on Saturday night
into Sunday morning with low level jet developing across the plains
and a series of waves moving across the region.  Also have higher
pops on Wednesday night into Thursday morning as cold front moves
through the region. Temperatures behind the front will be closer to
seasonal norms, with lower dew points.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

A somewhat thin band of stratus has moved into ther area,
generally west of a Huron to Sioux City line. Behind this band in
central Minnesota is some drier air which has brough ceilings up
in that area. With low level flow directed from the northeast this
stratus, while it will likely mix higher, may lower again
overnight as winds remain from the east and northeast. Will keep
MVFR ceilings through early evening, then scour them out but allow
them to redevelop late tonight into tomorrow morning. Shower and
thunderstorm threat too low to mention in the TAF forecast.


.FSD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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