Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 272023
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
323 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

MAIN CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON THURSDAY WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. CURRENT RADAR THIS
AFTERNOON SHOWING ONLY LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING THROUGH THE
LOWER MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE...SEEING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ASSOCIATED WITH A
MIDLEVEL WAVE LIFTING INTO THE REGION...AND EXPECTING SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY TO EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO OUR SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING. BY
LATER TONIGHT...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL THEN BE ENHANCED AS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET
THROUGH EASTERN NEBRAKSA/FAR SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHWESTERN IOWA. HOW AND WHERE ALL THIS COMES TOGETHER WILL
DETERMINE WHICH AREAS GET THE MOST RAINFALL...AND MODELS ARE STILL
IN SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THIS. HOWEVER...STILL LOOKS LIKE THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS WILL BE FOR THE HIGHEST QPF SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...LEANING TOWARD NORTHWESTERN IOWA. HI RES MODELS HAVE SLOWED
DOWN THE ONSET OF CONVECTION SOME...SO FOLLOWED SUIT AND DELAYED THE
TIMING JUST A BIT WITH THE BETTER STUFF DEVELOPING THROUGH THE MO
RIVER VALLEY TOWARD 06Z. PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS REMAIN JUST
EITHER SIDE OF TWO INCHES FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SO STILL COULD
HAVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THE LOWER MO RIVER
VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST IOWA. CONTINUED TO DEBATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WHETHER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS NEEDED FOR TONIGHT...THOUGH MOST
AREAS HAVE NOT RECEIVED RAINFALL SINCE THIS PAST WEEKEND...AND FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE STILL PRETTY HIGH. THIS ON TOP OF SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINING ON WHERE A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF HIGHER
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR...DECIDED TO FORGO A WATCH AT THIS POINT. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED URBAN FLOODING IF RAINFALL RATES GET HIGH
ENOUGH...AND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED ON FUTURE SHIFTS. RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...TRENDING TO THE NORTH AND EAST
COLLOCATED WITH BETTER FORCING. THERMAL PROFILES WILL WILL WARM A
TAD FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID AND
UPPER 60S...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY MID/UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

MAIN CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON THURSDAY WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. CURRENT RADAR THIS
AFTERNOON SHOWING ONLY LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING THROUGH THE
LOWER MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE...SEEING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ASSOCIATED WITH A
MIDLEVEL WAVE LIFTING INTO THE REGION...AND EXPECTING SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY TO EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO OUR SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING. BY
LATER TONIGHT...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL THEN BE ENHANCED AS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET
THROUGH EASTERN NEBRAKSA/FAR SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHWESTERN IOWA. HOW AND WHERE ALL THIS COMES TOGETHER WILL
DETERMINE WHICH AREAS GET THE MOST RAINFALL...AND MODELS ARE STILL
IN SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THIS. HOWEVER...STILL LOOKS LIKE THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS WILL BE FOR THE HIGHEST QPF SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...LEANING TOWARD NORTHWESTERN IOWA. HI RES MODELS HAVE SLOWED
DOWN THE ONSET OF CONVECTION SOME...SO FOLLOWED SUIT AND DELAYED THE
TIMING JUST A BIT WITH THE BETTER STUFF DEVELOPING THROUGH THE MO
RIVER VALLEY TOWARD 06Z. PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS REMAIN JUST
EITHER SIDE OF TWO INCHES FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SO STILL COULD
HAVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THE LOWER MO RIVER
VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST IOWA. CONTINUED TO DEBATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WHETHER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS NEEDED FOR TONIGHT...THOUGH MOST
AREAS HAVE NOT RECEIVED RAINFALL SINCE THIS PAST WEEKEND...AND FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE STILL PRETTY HIGH. THIS ON TOP OF SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINING ON WHERE A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF HIGHER
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR...DECIDED TO FORGO A WATCH AT THIS POINT. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED URBAN FLOODING IF RAINFALL RATES GET HIGH
ENOUGH...AND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED ON FUTURE SHIFTS. RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...TRENDING TO THE NORTH AND EAST
COLLOCATED WITH BETTER FORCING. THERMAL PROFILES WILL WILL WARM A
TAD FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID AND
UPPER 60S...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE LOWER MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH NEBRASKA THIS EVENING THEN EXPAND
NORTHWARD TONIGHT. WILL BE REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...WITH IMPROVEMENT AFTER 12Z ON THURSDAY.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...JM






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