Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 010406
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1106 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

WEAK WAVE WITH MARGINAL MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON NOT
REALLY AMOUNTING TO ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES. EXPECT THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES
TO QUICKLY MOVE INTO MINNESOTA. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD SIDE
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. MARGINAL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BRING A VERY SMALL THREAT FOR SHOWERS
TO AREAS MAINLY BETWEEN THE JAMES RIVER AND INTERSTATE 29 OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH FROM THIS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG ON MONDAY AND WHILE THERE WILL
BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE DAY
DO EXPECT SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE TO AID IN WARMING CONDITIONS.
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE A MILDER NIGHT IN A BRISK SOUTHERLY FLOW...
WITH LOWS LOWER 50S TO AROUND 60. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY
NIGHT WHERE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
COLLOCATED...THOUGH DISAGREE ON WHETHER ANY OF THIS CONVECTION WILL
PUSH EASTWARD AND MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. DID
LEAVE IT DRY FOR OUR AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME OF THIS CONVECTION TRACKING INTO/DEVELOPING IN OUR FAR WEST
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS INSTABILITY NUDGES EASTWARD AND A LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITY OF MORNING CONVECTION IN OUR WEST ON
TUESDAY...EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TIME HOURS TO BE DRY WITH
A STRENGTHENING CAP ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL BE A WINDY DAY WITH
INCREASING MIXED LAYER WINDS AND A TIGHTENING GRADIENT AS A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER WESTERN SD SLIDES SLOWLY EASTWARD. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

BY TUESDAY EVENING THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO
PUSH TOWARD OUR CWA...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION ON A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. WITH THAT...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL SD IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND THEN TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY THROUGH OUR WESTERN ZONES EARLY THAT A SEVERE STORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THOUGH SHEAR IS NOT ESPECIALLY IMPRESSIVE.
LOWS WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S. MODELS DO SUGGEST CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST...ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRENGTH OF STORMS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON DEGREE OF RECOVERY FROM MORNING
CONVECTION...THOUGH SHEAR LOOKS WEAK IN OUR EAST FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. IF WE CAN RECOVER...AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES LOOK FAIRLY
DECENT HOWEVER...RUNNING AROUND 1500 J/KG. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AGAIN
EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 80.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY. IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT HUMID THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH DEWPOINTS AVERAGING IN THE 60S. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED LOW
END VFR OR MVFR CLOUDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY MID MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT THESE CEILINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BECOME PREDOMINATE SO WILL LEAVE ONLY SCATTERED MENTION. A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT TOO LOW
IN COVERAGE FOR MENTION.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...



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