Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 241801
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1201 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1159 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

Have expired the western portions of the WSW and BZW on time.
Webcams show rapidly improving conditions with only limited
blowing snow so have opted against issuing a new advisory. Winds
are already beginning to degrees across far SE South Dakota and
Western Iowa, limiting the blowing snow risk. For now, will
continue blizzard warning over the eastern parts of the CWA where
light snow continues to fall.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 357 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

Winter storm is beginning to wind down, especially for the western
and northern portions of the area. Upper trough still spinning over
northeast Nebraska early this morning, and this will continue to
provide lift for continued snow across southeast portions of the
area, primarily south of a Tyndall-southern Sioux Falls-Windom line
this morning. Have seen a strong push of low level dry air from the
north, which has been limiting any further northward expansion of
the snowfall. Thus, most significant change to the forecast today is
to trim away pops and headlines from those areas to the northwest of
the aforementioned line. Despite winds gusting over 30 mph, webcams
support idea of limited blowing snow/reduced visibility in areas
where snowfall has ended.

Although additional snow accumulations are still likely across our
southeast, have also trimmed back amounts and decreased pops more
quickly in response the dry air push. Also may have lost some
moisture to the band of convection which quickly pushed eastward
through eastern Nebraska to central Iowa through the early morning
hours. Will hang on to another 2-4 inches of accumulation southeast
of Vermillion-Jackson MN line through the day, but this may be cut
back even further if dry air is even more dominant than currently
anticipated.

As far as headlines, aside from areas mentioned above which will be
cancelled, opted to maintain existing headlines where additional
light-moderate snow is still anticipated through today. Winds will
increase a bit more than current levels across our east by mid
morning, with another wave of snow expected around the same time.

Falling snow should be out of the cwa by sunset this evening, with
gradually clearing skies and decreasing winds as surface ridge
begins to move into the western CWA. Temperatures will certainly be
sharply colder than earlier in the week, with readings expected to
move very little throughout the day today. Looking for highs from
the mid 20s to around 30, warmest in our northwest where little if
any snow fell. Lows tonight with the clearing skies and decreasing
winds will drop into the teens, perhaps some single digits over the
deepest snow pack.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 357 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

West to northwest flow will prevail through the extended resulting
in much more seasonal temperatures than we have seen as of late.
Cool northwest flow will keep temperatures mainly below freezing on
Saturday.  The exception to this will be across central South Dakota
where surface ridge will shift east and flow will become west to
southwest resulting in warmer temperatures, especially in nearly
snow free areas around Huron and Chamberlain.

Will see temperatures warm into Monday, but warming will be limited
across the snow pack.  Have blended high temperatures on Monday with
CONS_Raw to keep diurnal range smaller over snow pack.

Low pressure system moving through Iowa on Tuesday may bring some
light snow to the region on Tuesday. Could see a few more additional
chances of light snow on Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1112 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

Snow gradually moving east of Sioux City at mid-day. Winds however
will remain gusty at all three TAF locations through the
afternoon. VFR ceilings will slowly move southeast this afternoon,
however some indications of MVFR ceilings arriving later this
afternoon and evening from the north. Unsure on the areal coverage
of these lower ceilings, so will only include a scattered wording
for right now and monitor trends.

VFR conditions will arrive by Saturday morning as winds turn
light.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...Blizzard Warning until midnight CST tonight for MNZ081-089-090.

IA...Blizzard Warning until midnight CST tonight for IAZ002-003-013-
     014-021-022-032.

NE...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Dux
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...BT
AVIATION...Dux



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