Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 222059
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
359 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

DEALING WITH A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON...AHEAD
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN STILL RISEN INTO THE 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

A NARROW CORRIDOR OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CONTINUED FETCH OF DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THIS CORRIDOR AND
WEAK OVERALL LIFT HAS LIMITED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT AND AMOUNTS.

BY THIS EVENING...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS WAVE SLOWLY PIVOTING
NORTHWARD...ALL THE WHILE BECOMING MORE LATITUDINALLY STRETCHED.
NEVERTHELESS...CHANCES OF LIGHT SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

AM ANTICIPATING A BREAK IN RAIN THROUGH THE HEART OF THE DAY ON
SATURDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  HOWEVER...NEXT
SURGE IN MOISTURE ARRIVES IN THE AFTERNOON...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
SHOULD BREAK OUT AGAIN.  INSTABILITY REALLY LOOKS MEAGER THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY...BUT JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP AN ISOLATED TSRA MENTION IN
THE AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A
BROAD AND SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH LIFTS FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE
SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MOISTURE INCREASES MORE
DRAMATICALLY AND A MID LEVEL WAVE LIFT NORTHWARD. A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT OVERALL THUNDER THREAT IS LOW.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY LIFT AWAY FROM THE
AREA...WITH A POSSIBLY A SMALL BREAK IN PRECIPITATION MIDDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY.
STILL APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IS WEAK DURING THIS
PERIOD...THEREFORE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS MINIMAL TO NON-
EXISTENT.

THE UPPER LOW WOBBLES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TREKING ACROSS THE REGION WITH A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. DRIER AIR BRIEFLY RETURNS AS THE LOW EXITS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...ALLOWING SHOWERS TO FINALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE
AREA.

ACTIVE WEATHER RESUMES LATE IN THE WEEK AS SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW
DIRECTS A SHORTWAVE OUR WAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH LATE WEEK. LOOK FOR A GOOD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. UPPER WAVE WILL
LIFT INTO THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WAVE
WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HARD TO PINPOINT WHERE SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP...SO WILL ONLY MENTION VICINITY ATTM AT SUX/FSD WITH A
PREVAILING SHRA GROUP AT HON. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS ARRIVAL OF
LOWER CEILINGS MAY LAG A BIT LATER INTO THE MORNING...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX


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