Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 101926
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
226 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

Lingering clouds over the eastern half of the CWA have kept
temperatures in the 40s.  Further west, temperatures have at least
risen into the 50s under a sunny sky.  Here is a look at the
forecast concerns and areas of the forecast where more focus was
spent into early next week.

1. Freeze/frost conditions possible tonight.
2. Warming temperatures into the end of the week.
3. Returning rain chances into the weekend.

For tonight, and upper low over eastern Kansas will continue to
slowly pivot eastward. A few lingering sprinkles will persist over
NW Iowa through sunset, but the trend will be dry.  High pressure
drifting through the area, combined with clear skies should promote
strong radiational cooling overnight. Afternoon dew points have
mixed into the upper 20s in many areas west of I-29, so those area
should see another freeze.  Further east, some concerns on the
potential impact of mid-level clouds drifting back north overnight,
along with a light gradient wind, may keep temperatures in the
middle to upper 30s.  After coordination with neighbors will issue a
freeze warning along the Missouri River, with a frost advisory
further east into NW Iowa where temperatures may fall into the lower
or middle 30s.

Dry conditions are expected Wednesday as winds turn back to the
south. Increasing troughing over the western CONUS will allow our
temperatures to warm back above normal across the Plains.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

By Thursday, we should see a thermal ridge axis move across the
region, and with breezy southwesterly winds, temperatures may
climb 5 or more degrees above normal. Have bumped up highs a
degree or two over populated guidance.

A frontal boundary will push through the forecast area Thursday
night, with a mid-level wave moving through the broad southwesterly
flow on Friday.  Guidance continues to hint at a few post frontal
showers developing during the day on Friday, despite limited
moisture.

While differences continue, model trends towards an open,
progressive, and slightly positively tilted wave moving through the
region on Saturday continue. Should this pattern verify, the best
chances of rain, or significant precipitation, would focus along the
southern frontal boundary in MO/KS/IA.  Further north, precipitation
may come in the form of several light bands of rain from elevated
frontogenetic forcing.   Will continue to carry fairly high PoPs for
light QPF.

This wave moves through by next weekend, leaving a broad westerly
flow across the CONUS.  In general, this would support slightly
warmer than normal temperatures and dry conditions into next week
with no widespread freeze in sight.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

VFR conditions expected into the overnight hours. Mid-level clouds
will linger over MN/IA counties overnight, and just may graze
SUX/FSD after midnight. Otherwise will watch for the potential of
river fog as temperatures again drop into the 30s.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Wednesday for
     SDZ069>071.

MN...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Wednesday for
     MNZ089.

IA...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Wednesday for
     IAZ001-002-012-013-020-021-031.

NE...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Wednesday for
     NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Dux
LONG TERM...Dux
AVIATION...Dux



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