Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 230357
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1057 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

BAND OF SHOWERS PRESENTLY EXITING OVER OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES LATE
THIS EVENING. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
AFTERNOON/EVENING RAIN BAND...INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG FOR MOST OF
THE CWA FOR LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...MOVING FROM
NEAR THE JAMES RIVER BASIN AT 21Z TO THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST IOWA BY 08Z. A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE
EVENING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA BETWEEN 23Z AND 03Z. SKIES WILL
BE CLEARING OUT FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...WITH PRETTY LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS AND DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. THIS WILL
ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT NEAR 40 IN THE WEST...WHILE
THEY STAY CLOSER TO 50 IN THE EAST. WEAK RIDGING WILL OCCUR THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...CONTINUED FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS AND MORE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL SEE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA...SLIGHTLY SUPPRESSED BY A WAVE SKIMMING THE UNITED
STATES/CANADA BORDER FRIDAY. IN SOME RESPECTS THIS WAVE WILL HELP
ENHANCE MIXING JUST A BIT ON FRIDAY...SO WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED
HIGHS A BIT. TEMPERATURES A LITTLE TOUGH FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SOME DENSER CIRRUS. WITHOUT ANY CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WOULD
LIKELY BE VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...SO WILL AIM A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BELOW THAT BENCHMARK. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT MIXING STILL DECENT ON SATURDAY AND
NOT MUCH CLOUD COVER SO TEMPERATURES STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND
MAINLY IN THE 60S...A FEW 70S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...STILL MAINTAINING
THE IDEA OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN
COOLING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MONDAYS COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A STRING OF NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL MORE THAN LIKELY SEE HIGHS
IN THE 60S AND A FEW LOWER 70S. A POTENTIALLY STRONG TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS ON MONDAY BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE
DEEPENING WILL OCCUR JUST EAST OF THE AREA. STILL EXPECTING A SHOT
OF RAIN ON MONDAY BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS WILL BE TO THE
EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOG AND LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO BUILD ALONG EDGE OF DEPARTING
MVFR STRATUS DECK AS COOLER AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION. SURFACE
WINDS HAVE TURNED VARIABLE...WITH SURFACE TO 925 MB WINDS VERY
LIGHT FROM THE WEST. FEEL THAT WE WILL NOW HAVE A NARROW CORRIDOR
OF IFR TO LIFR STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOP INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THE
CONCERNS WILL BE WITH THE DURATION OF THE FOG TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WITH LITTLE TO SCOUR THE MOISTURE
OUT...STRATUS/FOG COULD LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK. FOR NOW...WILL
BE OPTIMISTIC AND SUGGEST THAT STRATUS COULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
BEFORE DAYBREAK...OR AT LEAST STABILIZE INTO A LOW STRATUS DECK
WITH IMPROVED VISIBILITY.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED AFTER MID-MORNING
THURSDAY AS WINDS INCREASE.



&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JM
SHORT TERM...GILLISPIE
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...DUX



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