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000
FXUS63 KFSD 150435
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1135 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

WILL SEE ANY INSTABILITY SPRINKLES/FLURRIES DISSIPATE BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE DECREASING CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT WITH DYING WINDS AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES THROUGH
THE REGION. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS
TO LOWER 20S...AND TRENDED LOWEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST WHERE SOME SNOW COVER STILL EXISTS PER LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGE.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...WITH A SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNING TO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH. WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINNING TO PUSH OUT OF THE ROCKIES...IT
WILL BE A BREEZY DAY IN A TIGHTENING GRADIENT. WARMING THERMAL
PROFILES WILL BRING A MUCH WARMER DAY TO THE AREA...WITH HIGHS
NUDGING INTO THE LOWER 60S THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO
THE MID 40S OVER SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH/MID CLOUDS DURING THE DAY OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

FAIRLY MILD NIGHT EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING WINDS AND
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
AND 925 TEMPS HOVERING IN THE 3 TO 5 C RANGE...HAVE SIDED FOR LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM CRASHES THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE DAY LEADING TO FALLING TEMPERATURES.  EXPECT
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM TO BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT...WHICH MAKES PRECIPITATION TYPE QUITE AN ISSUE.  DESPITE THE
STRONG THERMAL CONTRAST...MID LEVEL DYNAMICS DO NOT LOOK TO BE AS
STRONG AS THEY DID A FEW DAYS AGO. THE 700 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...AND FOCUSED HIGHEST POPS THERE.  FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH...LEFT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.  COULD SEE SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT...AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO BE
GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
SURFACE RIDGE PASSING TO THE NORTH AND EAST...AND COOL BUT DRY
NORTHEAST WINDS KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL.  THE SYSTEM
THAT APPEARED TO PHASE WITH WEDNESDAY/S SYSTEM IN THE MODEL RUNS A
FEW DAYS AGO PASSES TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY.  INHERITED SOME SMALL
POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...THOUGH NOW IT IS APPEARING MORE AND
MORE LIKELY THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND CUT POPS BACK.

RETURN FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.  HAVE CARRIED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE. WHILE THE
GFS HAS IT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THE ECMWF TAKES IT NORTH OF THE US CANADIAN BORDER. THE
CANADIAN LIES SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE...BRUSHING THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH PRECIP.  BOTH SOLUTIONS  HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH ITS PLACEMENT...SO FOR NOW...DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE
WHICH TO SIDE WITH. THEREFORE...RESTRICTED POPS ONLY TO THE MOST
LIKELY LOCATION WHICH WOULD BE AN OVERSTATEMENT IF THE ECMWF
VERIFIES.

WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS.  HAVE
SIDED TOWARDS THE WARMER END OF GUIDANCE...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH ON
TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS
GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE 21-26KT RANGE. GUSTINESS WILL SUBSIDE IN
THE EVENING AS WINDS SHIFT A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET COULD BRING SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD THE END OF THIS PERIOD.
DID INCLUDE THIS FOR KSUX LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHERE LOW
LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST. HOWEVER...MAY NEED TO ADD TO
KFSD AS WELL WITH NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH