Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 222149
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
349 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 349 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Impressive upper level low on water vapor rotating northeast into
Iowa. The warm conveyer belt has drifted into southern Wisconsin and
was directing strong lift into southern MN, far southeast SD and
southwest MN. This trowal will gradually shift east and northeast
through the evening with the heavier snow amounts diminishing from
southwest to northeast. Additional snowfall amounts after 6 pm will
be fairly minimal with an inch or so possible around Jackson,
Spencer Iowa south towards Storm Lake. Will allow headlines to
expire as currently forecast but there will be a chance that a few
locations could see headlines cancelled if winds diminish quickly
enough. Clouds and winds will only gradually diminish through the
night which will keep temperatures relatively mild. Lows will be in
the teens to lower 20s.

Westerly flow will develop on Tuesday and with partly to mostly
cloudy skies temperatures will warm a little through the day. Deep
snowpack will keep some areas limited in warming, but highs will
range from the upper 30s in central SD to the mid 20s over the
deepest snowpack from southeast SD into northwest IA.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 349 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Wednesday into Thursday will see upper level ridging spread
across the area, allowing for continued mild temperatures. Just
being held back a bit by snowpack. But, as mild as this pattern is
expected to be, any areas with about 3 inches or less of snow
cover will likely see much of it melt by Thursday or Friday.

Still looking at a piece of energy moving through on Saturday but
confidence low so no plans on adding any chances for precipitation.
After this wave passes it will be briefly cooler on Sunday then back
to mild flow on Monday and Tuesday next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1052 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Widespread IFR conditions with LIFR over far southeast SD,
northwest IA and southwest MN in heavy snow and blowing snow.
Conditions will slowly improve this evening from west to east,
especially with reduced visibilityin snow and blowing snow, but
IFR ceilings may linger through the overnight. For now looking at
the TAF sites breaking out from about 6-9z but confidence is only
moderate in this happening.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for SDZ065-066-
     068.

     Blizzard Warning until midnight CST tonight for SDZ067-069>071.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for SDZ056-
     061-062.

MN...Blizzard Warning until midnight CST tonight for MNZ081-089-090.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MNZ072-
     097.

     Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for MNZ080-098.

IA...Blizzard Warning until midnight CST tonight for IAZ001>003-
     012>014-020>022-031-032.

NE...Blizzard Warning until midnight CST tonight for NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...08



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