Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 032025
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
325 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AND SOME HIGHER WIND
GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND NEAR THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AT 1/10 INCH OR LESS AND LIKELY CONFINED
TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT BUT PERSISTENT  NORTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT. PLAN ON
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER 40S OVER NORTHEAST IOWA.

LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BUT WE WILL STAY IN A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE DAY. IT WILL BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 50S ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO AROUND 60 OVER NORTHEAST
IOWA. WE SHOULD SEE CUMULUS DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
SETTING THE STAGE FOR CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONG WITH PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FROST. HAVE KEPT PATCHY GOING IN THE FORECAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED. PLAN ON LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S OVER NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO AROUND 40 ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. RIDGING THEN
BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WHEN HIGH WILL
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. A WEAK FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THEN DROP THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BRINGING LOW TO MODERATE RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION. WE MAY EVEN
SEE A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
DRIER AND WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE HELD RAIN CHANCES IN THE
30-40 PERCENT CHANCE RANGE. WE THEN LOOK TO DRY OUT FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN
THE WARM FRONT AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WOULD REESTABLISH ACROSS THE
REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE STILL SET TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
THE TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. TIGHTER
GRADIENT/DEEPER DIURNAL MIXING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE WEST/
NORTHWEST WINDS 13-18KT G25-30KTS DURING THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON
HOURS. FRONT AND LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
BAND OF SHRA/SCT TSRA AS IT THEY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
ROUGHLY 21Z-02Z TIME-FRAME. TIMING ESTIMATE REMAINS 23-01Z THRU KRST
AND 00-02Z THRU KLSE. OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA...GOOD VFR EXPECTED
THRU THIS TAF PERIOD...AND MOVED SHRA AND ANY POTENTIAL CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS WITH THEM TO A TEMPO MENTION AS THE FRONT PASSES.
ANY SHRA/TSRA LOOKING TO ONLY IMPACT THE KRST/KLSE AIRFIELDS FOR
1/2HR OR LESS. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT/
EARLY WED MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT. DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING BY LATE
WED MORNING TO RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF AND SOME GUSTINESS OF THE
NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER 04.15Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THROUGH THIS EVENING
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

GUSTY WEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH. RAINFALL HAS BEEN VERY
LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN WISCONSIN. PLAN ON ONLY A TRACE TO POSSIBLY A
COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF RAINFALL. WILL LIKELY NOT SEE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY LOCALLY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKE OR TWO. LOOK FOR WINDS TO SUBSIDE BY MID TO LATE EVENING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION.......RRS
FIRE WEATHER...WETENKAMP



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