Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 050750
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
250 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON RAIN CHANCES TODAY WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND RESULTING
TEMPERATURES THEN ON THE FOREFRONT.

REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS SHOW NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING SLOWLY
EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...LOCATED RIGHT ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT 07Z. THIS OCCURRING IN A FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING RIBBON. THIS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE EAST
AND WEAKEN WITH TIME THIS MORNING. ONCE THIS AREA MOVES OFF...
HAZY SUNSHINE AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN PREVAIL SIMILAR
TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. MODELS ALL POINT TO ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST UP THE RIDGE AND INTO WESTERN MN BY
EVENING. THIS SHOULD HELP FIRE CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND SOME OF THIS COULD TRY AND SNEAK IN TO THE
WESTERN FRINGES OF OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

A PATTERN SHIFT WILL TAKE PLACE AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND
FLATTENS IN RESPONSE TO THE LARGER WESTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH
OPENING AND EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN CANADA BY SUNDAY. AS
THE FORCING FROM THE MAIN WAVE PASSES...IT SENDS A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATE SUNDAY. WARM AIR AND DEEP MIXING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES UP FOR
ONE LAST DAY. CAPE IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO 1500-2000 J/KG BUT SHEAR
WILL BE LIMITED...LAGGING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME STRONG STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE BUT NOT VERY CONFIDENT IN ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
POTENTIAL. RAIN WILL END AND MUCH MORE SEPTEMBER-LIKE TEMPERATURES
ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT NEXT WEEK. AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES
ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST...SOME WEAK RIPPLES WILL BE
TRANSITIONING THROUGH THE AREA. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE MAY BRING
RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO WORK TO THE EAST WITH
MAINLY SPRINKLES OR JUST ENOUGH RAIN TO WET THE PAVEMENT OUT OF A
MID LEVEL VFR CEILING. EXPECT THAT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
PAST KRST BY 06Z AND THE CONCERN THEN BECOMES WHETHER THERE WILL
BE ANY FOG OVERNIGHT WITH THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. OPTED TO INCLUDE A POSSIBILITY OF SOME MVFR FOG IF THE
CLOUDS HAPPEN TO CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE SHOWERS. FOR KLSE...THE
SHOWERS SHOULD JUST BE APPROACHING AROUND 06Z AND WILL INCLUDE A 3
HOUR PERIOD OF SOME SHOWERS WITHOUT A VISIBILITY RESTRICTION. DO
NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH CHANCE FOR FOG AS THE CLOUDS SHOULD
NOT CLEAR OUT UNTIL SUNRISE OR LATER. AFTER THAT...VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD AT BOTH TAF SITES WITH SOME GUSTY SOUTH
WIND AT KRST FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...04


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