Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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128
FXUS63 KARX 060829
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
329 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE VERY WARM/DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AND
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE OVER MO WHILE LOW PRESSURE
WAS TRACKING SOUTHERN MANITOBA CANADA. THIS WAS PRODUCING WARM AIR
ADVECTION ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 2 AM RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL WI
TO 60 DEGREE AT ROCHESTER MN. ALSO...RADAR WAS PICKING UP ON SOME
MID-LEVEL CLOUD AND ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI IN THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION.

FOR TODAY...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 MPH...GUSTING 20-25 MPH
WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW IN VERY WARM AIR INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT DROPPING INTO NORTHERN MN/WI. NAM/GFS HAVE 925MB TEMPERATURES
PUSHING INTO THE 23-25C RANGE WHICH WITH MIXING SHOULD YIELD HIGHS
IN THE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S. IT WILL BE PRETTY DRY AS WELL WITH
DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 40S BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL YIELD SOME LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 20 PERCENT RANGE. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WHERE FULL GREEN-UP HAS NOT OCCURRED YET. SEE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW.

THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT FAIRLY
STRONG CAP EXISTS IN THE 800-700MB LAYER. THERE IS SOME STEEPER MID-
LAYER LAPSE RATES/ THOUGH FOR PERHAPS A SCATTERED LINE OF HIGH-BASED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP PROBABILITIES AROUND
THE 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

FOR SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...

STILL A LITTLE BIT OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SINKS INTO IL-IA FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHERN WI. REST OF SATURDAY AFTERNOON
LOOKS RAIN-FREE WITH COOLER HIGHS ONLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO NEAR 70.

HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY/MOTHERS DAY. PLEASANT MOTHERS DAY ON TAP WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70.

SHOWER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON THE UPTICK SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASE AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE/WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
ILLINOIS. APPEARS WARM FRONT/BETTER CAPE POOL/ANY SEVERE THREAT
STAYS SOUTH OUT OF OUR AREA. LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE 60S MONDAY/TUESDAY.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LINGER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A
CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HAS SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE AREA.
ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT WORKING ACROSS THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AND WITH GOOD LAPSE RATES IN THIS MIXED
LAYER...THERE SHOULD BE SOME GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS FOR BOTH
SITES FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION FORMS AND SHUTS OFF THE MIXING. THE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH BOTH SITES VERY LATE FRIDAY EVENING. THE 06.00Z NAM
SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE
FRONT THAT COULD BE NEAR KLSE BY 07.06Z. HOWEVER...THE 05.12Z HI-
RES ARW KEPT THE ACTIVITY FARTHER TO THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH CROSSING LAKE SUPERIOR AND ONTARIO. FOR NOW...WILL NOT
INCLUDE ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS CONFIDENCE ON HOW MUCH AND
WHERE IT WILL BE IS PRETTY LOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TODAY
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

PLAN ON VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY...TOPPING OFF IN THE LOW TO MID
80S THIS AFTERNOON. THESE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...COMBINED WITH
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...GUSTING
AROUND 25 MPH MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER AND OPEN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA...AND MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE MIDDLE 20 PERCENT
RANGE WILL PRODUCE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONCERN WHERE TOTAL GREEN-
UP HAS NOT YET BEEN ACHIEVED.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....DAS
LONG TERM......DAS
AVIATION...04
FIRE WEATHER...DAS



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