Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 292343

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
643 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017

Scattered showers and isolated storms moving east/southeast across
the region this afternoon. Upper level shortwave trough, cold air
aloft-decent low level lapse rates, and a bit of instability
providing the lift for the pcpn. With much of it diurnally driven,
expect the activity to weaken/diminish with sunset - and
should be done before midnight.

Closed 500 mb low/trough wobbling slowly across the region/southern
Canada, gradually slated to lift northeast of the region Wed night.
Cold air advection continues in the low levels, with various bits of
upper level energy rotating through the trough. Coupled with
favorable low level lapse rates and weak (mostly afternoon)
instability /200-500 J/kg mucape/ and scattered showers will persist
into Tue evening. Isolated storms possible, Tue afternoon - moreso
for parts of northeast IA/southwest WI.

Expect another relatively cool day Tue with the clouds and showers
lending a hand in holding highs well below the late May normals.
Upper 50s to mid 60s expected.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017

A brief break from the constant shower chances expected for Wed into
Thu as both the GFS and EC continue to paint a sfc high across the
Upper Mississippi River Valley. Both then want to lift a west-east
running warm front northward across the local forecast area Thu
night. This boundary could sit there into Saturday morning,
providing a good focus for shower/storm development - with moisture
transport/low level jet and bits of upper level energy also working
on the front. See some potential for training storms and heavy rain,
but its too early to discern the extent and any flooding potential.
Something to watch though.

By next weekend some suggestion for some shortwave ridging a loft,
with a sfc high meandering in from southern Canada. A couple more
dry days could be the result. That said, latest 12z EC backtracks on
that - sliding another shortwave across the region. Pretty good
chance for showers/storms in this latest rendition. Considering the
model inconsistency and disagreements, will let the model blend
dictate rain chances in this period.

After a cool start to the week, temps look to rebound to something
close to the early June normals.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017

Scattered showers continue to dot the area and will maintain a
VCSH mention for both airports through about sunset. The showers
should then die off with the loss of daytime heating and as the
short wave trough over Wisconsin moves off to the east. The clouds
may not break up much though as another short wave trough drops
south across the area, but ceilings are expected to remain VFR
with this wave. More scattered showers should from Tuesday
afternoon with the daytime heating and as another short wave
trough works across the area. This wave does not look to be as
strong as the one currently moving across the area, so for now
will only show a VCSH for both airports with VFR ceilings.


Issued at 331 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

A Flood Warning continues along the Mississippi River at both
McGregor and Guttenberg Dam 10. Meanwhile elevated river levels
continue along the Mississippi River north of McGregor.  If you are
planning any recreational activities on the Mississippi River be
alert for these high water levels and watch out for debris in the
water that may pose a threat to watercraft.




LONG TERM....Rieck
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