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000
FXUS63 KARX 252111
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
300 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WAS FALLING ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN IA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MESO MODELS SUGGEST MUCH OF
THE SNOW WILL EXIT THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
TOWARD 03Z. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS THIS EVENING LOOK MINIMAL.
WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TIL THEN.

EXPECT CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
SCOOTS SOUTHEAST. COLDER AIR FOLLOWING IN THE WAKE OF THE SNOW
MAKER...WITH 850 MB TEMPS BY 12Z THU AROUND -24 C. TEMPS WILL TAKE A
TUMBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH WHERE IT WILL CLEAR FIRST. SOME
LOCATIONS NORTH OF HWY 29 IN NORTHCENTRAL WI ALONG WITH PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST MN WILL REACH THE LOWER -20S FOR WIND CHILLS FOR A FEW
HOURS BY THU MORNING. LOOKS BORDERLINE FOR A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY...BUT PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL ISSUE
AN ADVISORY FOR TAYLOR COUNTY IN NORTH-CENTRAL WI OVERNIGHT-THU
MORNING.

THU NIGHT COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY WHEN IT COMES TO COLD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE PLAINS. WITH HIGHS ON THU ONLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS AND A FULL NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING...LOWS FRI MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS TO NEAR 20
BELOW ZERO. EVEN A LIGHT STIRRING TO THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL 10
TO 15 DEGREES COLDER. WIND CHILLS FROM 20 TO 30 BELOW ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WOULD APPEAR
LIKELY FOR A PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SOME LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A SHIFT SOUTH IN THE
STORM TRACK FOR A WEATHER SYSTEM SLATED TO MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
REGION SAT NIGHT-SUN. RUNS EARLIER IN THE WEEK SUGGESTED HEAVY SNOW
COULD IMPACT THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...BUT RECENT TRENDS IN THE
GFS/GEM CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE SYSTEM SOUTH...WITH THE MAIN SNOW BAND
FOLLOWING SUIT. HOWEVER...THE EC HAS SHIFTED MORE NORTH WITH ITS
25.12Z RUN...LENDING UNCERTAINTY TO THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL
LEAN ON CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR CHANCES AS A RESULT. AS IT
STANDS...SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA STILL STAND TO RECEIVE
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWS. AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN...BUT 1 TO 3 INCHES
LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS STAGE.

THE GFS/EC LOOKING MORE BULLISH ON THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR A MON
NIGHT-TUE SYSTEM. LONG WAVE WEST COAST TROUGH DEEPENS FOR THE START
OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...EJECTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE REGION. DECENT THERMODYNAMIC LIFT WITH THE SHORTWAVE...ALONG
WITH NORTH-SOUTH SLOPING FRONTOGENETIC LIFT. WITH IT BEING A
SOUTHWEST SYSTEM...IT WILL HAVE A TAP TO SOME RELATIVELY MILD/MOIST
AIR...EVIDENCED VIA THE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW WOULD RESULT IN THIS SCENARIO...BULK FALLING ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-90...IF...IF THE STORM STAYS ON ITS CURRENT TRACK. NO GUARANTEE
THAT HAPPENS. IT BEARS CLOSE WATCHING.

LOOKING FOR MODERATING TEMPS NEXT WEEK AS THE OVERALL FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL. DOESN/T LOOK LIKE IT WILL RETURN TO NORMAL...BUT HIGHS
BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S ARE PROBABLE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

MAIN CONCERNS ARE MVFR CONDITIONS AT LSE AND IFR AT RST TAF SITE
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN IOWA AND
MISSOURI BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW AT BOTH TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH 22Z WEDNESDAY...AS THE BETTER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT BOTH TAF SITES BY 01Z TO 03Z THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
AFTER THIS TIME.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR WIZ017.

MN...NONE.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008-
     009-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....DTJ