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000
FXUS63 KARX 060947 AAA
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
347 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
TODAY. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX ON
FRIDAY WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90.

LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN LAKE HURON WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WEST THROUGH WISCONSIN. A
SURFACE TROUGH WAS DEEPENING OVER THE DAKOTAS WHICH WAS TIGHTENING
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA/IOWA. THE HIGH WILL
SLIDE EAST TODAY AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO EDGE EAST...CREATING A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH....WITH GUSTS AROUND 30
MPH...PRODUCING AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT NEAR
THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR AND POSSIBLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. IF THE PRECIPITATION DOES MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA LATE TONIGHT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IT WOULD FALL IN
THE FORM OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES THROUGH. LOOKING AT
FORECAST  SOUNDINGS...THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPE APPEARS
TO BE FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS THEN SWITCHING
OVER TO DRIZZLE DURING THE AFTERNOON IF SURFACE TEMPERATURES CAN
WARM ABOVE FREEZING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING JUST HOW
WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES COULD GET ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THEY WOULD WARM TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING BRIEFLY BEFORE
COLDER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURATION INCREASES ALONG WITH THE COLDER AIR SO THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO A CHANGE OVER TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SLEET THEN OVER TO
LIGHT SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION  ENDS. ANY ICE...SLEET...OR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT ON FRIDAY BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME ICY TRAVEL CONDITIONS FRIDAY MORNING WITH A GLAZE OF ICE
POSSIBLE.

THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS CATCHES UP WITH THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEEPEN OVER NORTHERN
MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A BAND OF SNOW
FROM CENTRAL IOWA INTO FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BAND SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACTLY
WHERE IT WILL SET UP. THE NAM IS THE STRONGEST AND NORTHERN MOST
SOLUTION...PLACING THE BAND OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN WITH A SWATH OF 1 TO 3 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THESE
AREAS. THE GFS AND ECMWF TAKE THE SNOW SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WILL LEAN TOWARD A MODEL CONSENSUS  BLEND AT THIS
TIME...INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND
FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND HOLDING SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TO AROUND 1 INCH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE
REGION FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. THE
HIGH SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. UPPER
RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN...LEADING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 30S....THEN INTO THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S FOR MONDAY. THE RIDGE FLATTENS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS A TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
FEATURE COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN RIGHT AROUND OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014

CURRENT SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A CLOUD DECK TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF KRST. THIS IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS
NORTH/NORTHEAST TOWARD KRST. FURTHER WEST THE CLOUD DECK LOWERS TO
MVFR AND FINALLY IFR IN WESTERN IA/MN.

STEERING FLOW FOR THE CLOUDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
AND INCREASE THE MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS TOWARD KRST AND KLSE. AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...SOME LOWERING IS EXPECTED INTO MVFR
CATEGORY. CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP BY MID-DAY THURSDAY WITH WINDS
INCREASING.

AT KRST...WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME DRIFTING ACROSS
THE AIRFIELD. HAVE NOT INCLUDED A VSBY RESTRICTION IN BLSN
YET...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE AN MVFR RESTRICTION. WOULD LIKE TO SEE
SPEEDS ABOVE 30 KTS FOR IFR VSBYS IN BLSN.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT