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000
FXUS63 KARX 192047
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
347 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MANITOBA AND ONTARIO WILL ALLOW
A COLD FRONT TO SINK SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THIS FRONT THEN STALLS NEAR THE INTERSTATE 90 AND AND 94
CORRIDORS ON SUNDAY. 925 AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS RATHER
WEAK AND PARALLEL WITH THIS FRONT...SO KEPT THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 IN THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT
RANGE.

ON SUNDAY...THE 925 MB AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS A BIT MORE
CONVERGENT ALONG THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...THE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES
CLIMB INTO THE 250 TO 750 J/KG RANGE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO THIS...INCREASED
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP A BIT HIGHER. WITH THE 0-3 KM AND
0-6 KM SHEAR THAN THAN 30 KNOTS...NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER
WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH THE FRONT FINALLY SOUTH
OF THE AREA. THE GFS AND NAM SHOWS THAT MOST UNSTABLE CAPES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. IN
ADDITION...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR DOES EXCEED 40 KNOTS. HOWEVER THE
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE CAPES IS VERY SKINNY...SO NOT OVERLY
CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT MOVES QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION...THE LIKELY PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL LOOK GOOD FOR
NOW. HOWEVER WILL LIKELY HAVE TO RAISE THEM EVEN MORE AS WE
APPROACH THIS TIME PERIOD. THE GFS HAS MOST UNSTABLE CAPES IN THE
250 TO 500 J/KG RANGE ALONG THIS FRONT AND IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER BOTH THE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR REMAINS LESS
THAN 30 KNOTS. AS A RESULT...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER
AT THIS TIME.

FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...A STRONG COLD
FRONT AND NEGATIVELY TITLED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES CLIMB INTO THE 500 TO
1000 J/KG RANGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LIKE THE YESTERDAY...
THERE APPEARS TO BE ADEQUATE SHEAR FOR SUPER CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT
IF THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO BECOME SURFACE BASED.
HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY OF WHETHER THIS
WILL BE THE CASE.

FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE 850 AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW
ZERO...SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW NO ICE CRYSTAL SEEDING. DUE TO
THIS KEPT...THE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

WEAK COOL FRONT LIES FROM NEAR DULUTH MINNESOTA SOUTHWEST TO SIOUX
FALLS SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...STRONG SOUTH
WINDS WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT KRST/KLSE
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TONIGHT...AND AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES OVERNIGHT ...LOOK FOR
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE TOWARD
6AM SUNDAY...AND THEN CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL
LOWER THROUGH THE DAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SEEING WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS POINT. WEAK AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...AND CHANCES OF THIS HAPPENING ARE GREATER AFTER
18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THIS AFTERNOON
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS TAKING A
LITTLE LONGER TO RETURN TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEW
POINT VALUES HOVERING IN THE MID 20S OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MID
60S THIS AFTERNOON. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE MID TO LOW 20S WILL PRODUCE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO
25 PERCENT BY MID AFTERNOON. ALSO...SOUTH WINDS OF 12 TO 17 MPH
WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE ARE OCCURRING EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 10 TO 15 MPH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT IF RAIN DEVELOPS.
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS CRESTING FROM GENOA TO GUTENBERG FROM
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE ONLY PLACE TO EXPECTED TO
EXCEED FLOOD STAGE ALONG THIS STRETCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS
MCGREGOR. FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...BETWEEN 0.35 AND
1.00 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED FALL. DUE TO THE LONG DURATION...NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED FROM THIS RAIN. HOWEVER IT WILL KEEP RIVER
LEVELS ELEVATED INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...EASTER
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE AREA WILL RECEIVE ITS FIRST MEASURABLE RAIN ON AN EASTER
SINCE 2008 /MARCH 23RD/. ON THAT EASTER...LA CROSSE RECEIVED 0.03
INCHES AND ROCHESTER RECEIVED 0.02 INCHES. WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN...IT WILL BE LIKELY THE WETTEST
EASTER SINCE 2006 /APRIL 16TH/. ON THAT EASTER...LA CROSSE
RECEIVED 0.54 INCHES AND ROCHESTER RECEIVED 1.20 INCHES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ZT
FIRE WEATHER...WETENKAMP
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE
CLIMATE...BOYNE