National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KARX 081733
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1134 AM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1024 AM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT WITH INITIAL WAVE WAS LIGHT WITH UNDER AN INCH.
SNOW RATIOS ALL OVER THE BOARD BUT APPEARS HIGHER RATIOS (16:1 OR
20:1) MOST COMMON. FOCUS SHIFTS TO HOW MUCH MORE WILL ACCUMULATE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH SPEED
MAX NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ROUNDING BOTTOM OF TROUGH. Q-G
FORCING AND WIDESPREAD LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THIS WAVE
APPROACHES WHICH HAS BEEN INTENSIFYING PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHERN
IOWA INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. THIS TREND...IN ADDITION TO FIRST
GLANCE THROUGH 08.12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE
SHIFTING SOUTH A BIT. WHILE ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD THROUGH
TONIGHT...BEEN SCALING BACK ON SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. RADAR REFLECTIVITIES INCREASING OVER
NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN MAY BE SHOWING SIGNS OF
BETTER DENDRITIC SNOWGROWTH AS WELL...WHICH LOOKS FAVORABLE IN
SOUNDINGS AS LIFT COMES IN TODAY.

BOTTOM LINE...NO CHANGES PLANNED WITH ADVISORIES BUT MAY INCREASE
RANGE OF SNOWFALL AND LOWER A BIT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
THE SYSTEM WITH WEST WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 MPH MONDAY MORNING
INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH POSSIBLE. THESE
WINDS WILL CREATE SOME PATCHY BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OPEN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND ALONG RIDGETOPS. SOME SLICK SPOTS
ON AREA ROADS CAN BE EXPECTED. HAVE ADDED PATCHY BLOWING SNOW TO
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. ANOTHER WAVE PUSHES ACROSS
THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH THE MAIN IMPACT BEING MUCH COOLER AIR
MOVING IN BEHIND IT. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRATOCUMULUS AND POSSIBLY A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ON MONDAY. THE GFS IS MUCH DRIER AND WOULDN/T SUPPORT
THIS. WILL NOT ADD IT TO THE FORECAST YET BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY AND BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING WILL RANGE FROM
THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED OVER
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IOWA STARTING LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE BITTERLY COLD WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE TEENS BELOW ZERO OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A FEW LOCATIONS OVER FAR NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN MAY STAY IN THE 1 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO
RANGE. WIND CHILL VALUES MONDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN MAY GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF
WISCONSIN HIGHWAY 10 LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHERN CANADA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAY GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS IT MOVES THROUGH. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. ANOTHER ARCTIC
HIGH THEN QUICKLY BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS. NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN MAY NOT REACH THE ZERO
MARK...WITH HIGHS OF -1 TO -2. A BITTERLY COLD NIGHT IN STORE FOR
THE AREA AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY PRODUCING
A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
TEMPERATURES MAY WARM A BIT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS FLOW ALOFT
TURNS MORE ZONAL. HIGH ON THURSDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S...THEN WARM INTO THE LOWER 20S TO UPPER 20S ON FRIDAY.
COOLER AIR RETURNS ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND
BRINGS SOME LIGHT SNOW CHANCES TO THE REGION. PLAN ON HIGHS ON
SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

MESSY AVIATION FORECAST...TYPICAL IN THIS TYPE OF WEATHER. WILL BE A
LOT OF BOUNCING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR AS WAVES OF SNOW
MOVE THROUGH. LIFT AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE SHOULD CONTINUE CURRENT TREND
OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER SNOW AND HENCE A TREND TOWARDS MORE IFR AS THE
AFTERNOON GOES ON. HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY STAY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 SO COULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING ALREADY.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...WIND SHIFTS WILL TAKE PLACE MONDAY MORNING AND
INCREASE QUITE A BIT. WHILE MARGINAL...INTRODUCED A LITTLE BLOWING
SNOW AT KRST TAF SITE BUT GUESSING AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE MINIMAL
SINCE MOST OF THE PROBLEM WILL BE DRIFTING SNOW INSTEAD.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR WIZ032-033-041.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR WIZ017-029-034-
     042-053-054.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM CST
     MONDAY FOR WIZ043-044-055-061.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-
     094>096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR IAZ008>010-018-
     019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR IAZ011-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...SHEA