Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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000
FXUS63 KARX 291931
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
230 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TOUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...PROVIDING MUCH OF THE FORCING FOR THE ONGOING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AROUND 2000 J/KG SBCAPE ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VIA THE RAP TO HELP POWER THE STORMS.
HOWEVER...RAP/HRRR BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO PAINT A SKINNY CAPE
PROFILE...NOT SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG UPDRAFTS. SHEAR IS A BIT BETTER
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...BUT STILL RELATIVELY MEAGER. RAP PEGS 0-6KM
SHEAR AT 20-25 KTS...MOST OF WHICH IS IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER. WITH A
RELATIVELY DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER...EXPECT SOME ENHANCED WIND GUSTS
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. COULD SEE SOME LARGE HAIL...BUT A BUNCH OF
PEA TO 1/2 INCH SIZE MIGHT BE MORE LIKELY. WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-45
KTS ALSO LOOKS REASONABLE. CAN/T RULE OUT SOMETHING HIGHER IF BOWING
SEGMENTS START DEVELOPING. MESO MODELS WERE A BIT BEHIND ON THE
DEVELOPMENT/SPEED OF THE CONVECTION...BUT TRENDS AND LATER RUNS
FAVOR CLEARING THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION SOUTH/EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 03Z. MAIN STRONG-SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE THROUGH 7-8 PM.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES A RIGHT TURN AS IT GETS THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT...TAKING AIM AT THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR MORE SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS EASTERN
WI...AND DEPENDING ON SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...COULD LINGER INTO
WESTERN WI IN THE MORNING. WILL CONTINUE SOME SMALL POPS LATE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL BREAKDOWN OF THE AMPLIFIED
WEST COAST RIDGE...RESULTING IN A CHANGE FROM NORTHWEST FLOW TO MORE
ZONAL FOR THE WEEKEND. GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALSO IN FAVOR OF SHUNTING ANY
RIPPLES ON THE FLOW SOUTH/NORTH...TRENDING TOWARD A DRY STRING OF
DAYS. EVEN WED...WHICH MODELS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING BACK AND FORTH ON
WHETHER TO SPIN A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE REGION...NOW SUGGEST THE SFC
HIGH WILL WIN OUT...KEEPING THAT PIECE OF ENERGY SOUTHWEST. SOME
SMALL RAIN CHANGES MAY CREEP IN A FEW DAYS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS
SOLUTION...BUT OVERALL...IT LOOKS MORE DRY THAN NOT FROM WED INTO
THE WEEKEND. MONDAY SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A STORMY DAY...WITH A
COLD FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

FOCUS IS ON POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS A MID-
LEVEL TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE REGION. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BETWEEN THUNDERSTORMS...DETERIORATING INTO IFR TEMPORARILY
IN THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME. ALSO...WATCH FOR STRONG MICROBURST TYPE
WINDS WITH THESE STORMS. LOOK FOR THE CONVECTION TO CLEAR SOUTHEAST
OF THE KRST/KLSE TAF SITES AROUND 01-02Z. LOOKS LIKE STRATUS/FOG
WITH SETUP UP AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING.
LOOKING FOR KRST TO SLIP INTO IFR AFTER 07Z AND KLSE AROUND 09Z.
PLAN ON IMPROVEMENT INTO VFR RANGE AGAIN AFTER 14Z.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....DAS


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