Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 142330
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
630 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

At 3 PM, MVFR clouds remain trapped below a subsidence inversion.
As the surface ridge axis slides east tonight, expect skies to
gradually clear. However with this said, we will have to watch out
for the possibility that some of this low level moisture could
return to southwest and central Wisconsin as the winds become
southerly late tonight. The clouds may linger into Saturday
morning.

On Saturday afternoon and evening, the models continue to show
that a cold front will move southeast through the area. Still
plenty of questions on how much the dew points will recover and
whether the cap will erode enough for the development for storms.
Overall with weaker cap and better convergence, the best chances
for storms will be across western Wisconsin. However if the dew
points can get into the mid 70s or the temperatures can get into
the lower 90s west of the Mississippi River, scattered storms
could also form in that area too. Depending on the dew points, the
0-1 km mean layer CAPES will be in the 2 to 4K J/kg range. Like
yesterday, much of the shear remains in the 0-3 km range, so there
could be some organization with any storms that happen to
develop. Soundings suggest that the primary concern will be large
hail. Other threats will be damaging winds and heavy rain.

With 925 mb temperatures in the 24 to 27C range, the maximum
temperatures for Saturday looked too cool, so bumped them up a
couple of degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

From Monday night into Thursday, the models continue to show that
the upper level ridge will flatten and this will result in zonal
flow across the Upper Mississippi River. Like yesterday, there are
still plenty of questions on where the frontal boundary will be
located. This will affect both severe weather and flooding
chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

MVFR/low VFR clouds should finally scatter out this evening given
latest satellite trends, resulting in mostly clear skies at TAF
airfields into the overnight. However, with high pressure
dominating the regional weather pattern, will need to watch the
potential for lower stratus development under the nighttime
inversion if current cloud cover doesn`t completely break up
before sunset. For now, will keep with VFR forecast and monitor
conditions.

Redevelopment of some lower cumulus in the 2000 to 4000 ft agl
layer is possible on Saturday, but not expecting any ceilings at
this time. Winds will be light and variable through the night,
picking up a bit from the south-southwest on Saturday.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boyne
LONG TERM...Boyne
AVIATION...Rogers



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