


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
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526 FXUS63 KARX 241043 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 543 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Periodic showers and storms continue today (30-60%). Showers/storms that develop will again be efficient rain producers. - Rounds of heavy rain expected through Friday. Flooding risk increases in areas where training storms are able to develop. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 338 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Periodic Showers and Storms Today With a quasi-stationary boundary draped across northeast Iowa into southwest Wisconsin, periodic showers and storms are expected throughout the day, 30-60% for any given location. The highest confidence in precipitation development is this afternoon south of I-90 along the boundary. Upwards of 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE is depicted in model soundings for this afternoon primarily in the vicinity of the boundary suggesting thunderstorm development is possible. Thunderstorm potential decreases with northward extent though given shrinking MUCAPE profiles. Showers and storms that do develop today will again be efficient rainfall producers given warm cloud depths in excess of 10kft and PWATs above the 99th percentile compared to climatology. Areas that received several inches of rainfall last night will be more susceptible to flash flooding today, especially if training storms are able to develop. Rounds of Heavy Rain Through Friday The boundary shifts northward Wednesday into Thursday as an upper level shortwave and surface low move northward into the region before stalling again generally from southeast Minnesota into south-central Wisconsin. Heavy rain is expected along this boundary as the environment remains saturated and warm cloud depths remain greater than 10kft. The 23.12z LREF continues to suggest the heaviest rainfall will occur mainly along and north of I-90 through Friday with a consistent 40-60% chance of 3+ inches of rainfall. Flood risk remains dependent on the location of the boundary and developing showers/storms, with ensemble guidance continuing to suggest higher end totals (4+ inches) will be needed to see minor river flooding. Longer stretches between bouts of rain are expected late Friday into this weekend, but the upper level pattern remains active into early next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 540 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 MVFR ceilings along and south of an AEL to MFI line--with pockets of IFR conditions due to scattered rain showers--linger through the mid morning and improve by midday to high MVFR/low VFR. Conditions degrade to MVFR/IFR overnight as the next round of showers and storms lifts through. Light northeasterly winds of 5-10kts veer to the east overnight. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Falkinham AVIATION...Skow