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000
FXUS63 KARX 151104
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
604 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

SURFACE MAP THIS MORNING SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM EASTERN ND SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA. MEANWHILE...MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVERHEAD WAS PRODUCING SOME SPORADIC HIGH BASED CU/LOWER
ALTOCUMULUS AND LIGHT FLURRY ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. NOT ENOUGH TO
TOTALLY BLOCK OUT THE BLOOD MOON THAT OCCURRED EARLY THIS MORNING
THOUGH. OTHERWISE... TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WERE ON THE CHILLY
SIDE AND VARIED QUITE A BIT DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND WIND. IN
THE SAND COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI WHERE IT WAS CALM...READINGS WERE IN
THE TEENS. ELSEWHERE...READINGS WERE IN THE 20S.

FOR TODAY...EXPECTED A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS AS LINGERING STEEP
LAPSE RATES LATER THIS MORNING WILL PRODUCE SOME CUMULUS. THIS
SHOULD BE MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER CLOSER TO MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING AND COLDER AIR ALOFT. MEANWHILE WEST OF THE RIVER...
EXPECTING A GENERAL INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUD DURING THE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE HEADING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS
ONLY EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE 30S/PERHAPS A FEW LOWER 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WITH THICKENING
CLOUD COVER AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO EASTERN SD.
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT/850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO ACHIEVE COLUMN SATURATION/PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN WI. HAVE SMALLER-END SNOW CHANCES GOING FOR
AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF I-94 AFTER MIDNIGHT. PLAN ON OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THEN FOCUSES ON SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

APPEARS BULK OF MODEL CONSENSUS FOCUSES HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL ACROSS
NORTHERN MN/FAR NORTHERN WI/UPPER MI GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW. SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SNOW MAY BRUSH TAYLOR COUNTY IN THE
NORTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA. MODELS BRINGING VERY WARM INTO
THE AREA WITH THE NAM BEING THE WARMEST OF THE BUNCH...SHOWING 0-1KM
TEMPERATURES OF 1-8C PUSHING IN WEDNESDAY TO KEEP PRECIPITATION
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA AS HIGHS WARM TO
AROUND 40 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS
NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI. THERE IS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS TAYLOR COUNTY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH COOLER SURFACE TEMPS AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS
INTO UPPER MI WITH DEFORMATION SNOW MAYBE CLIPPING THE COUNTY. WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. FOR NOW...THINKING 2-4 INCHES OF
WET/SLUSHY SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE. WILL HAVE THE DAYSHIFT ASSESS THE
NEED FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT AS WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND AREA OF
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS PASS ACROSS IA/IL. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
FARTHER WITH THIS FEATURE SO JUST GOING WITH 20 POPS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST IA INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF WI. OTHERWISE...LOOK
FOR COOLER HIGHS IN THE 40-50 DEGREE RANGE.

FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND CONTINUED COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS AGAIN
IN THE 40S.

RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH BOTH THE EC/GFS SHOWING A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER REGION. WARMING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH PUSHES HIGHS ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY INTO THE 50S...WHICH IS STILL SOME 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

EC/GFS A BIT AT ODDS FOR MONDAY WITH THE EC KEEPING COOLER CYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WHILE GFS BEGINS TO BUILD A RIDGE FOR
WARMING. MODEL CONSENSUS YIELDS HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 604 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO
OKLAHOMA WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE UNDER THE HIGH FOR SOME SCATTERED
CUMULUS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO STREAM IN TONIGHT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE DAKOTAS THAT WILL RESULT IN A MID LEVEL CEILING FORMING. AS
THE LOW TAKES SHAPE...THE WINDS WILL GO SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TO
OVER 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

RIVERS REMAIN AT ELEVATED LEVELS FROM THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL
THAT FELL OVER THE WEEKEND AND FROM THE SNOWMELT ON MONDAY.
A FEW SITES ALONG THE KICKAPOO RIVER HAVE EITHER GONE TO OR ABOUT TO
ACHIEVE FLOOD STAGE. ALSO...A FEW SITES ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI ARE
RISING AS WELL AND EXPECTED TO GO INTO FLOOD STAGE LATER THIS WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE DRY TODAY...BUT A PAIR OF SYSTEMS
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND WHICH
COULD PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN OR SNOW...BUT NOTHING LIKE THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION THAT FELL OVER THIS LAST WEEKEND.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...DAS