Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 111754
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1154 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1155 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

Current Winter Weather Advisory remains on track. Added Juneau and
Adams Counties to the advisory to account for the flash freeze. A
band of heavier snow is currently making its way through southeast
Minnesota into western Wisconsin. An additional 1 to 3 inches of
snow are possible before the snow tapers off later this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 317 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

For today arctic cold front will move quickly east through the
area. This front will produce a wintry mix of precipitation or all
snow. Snow totals will be up to 1 inch.

In the wake of this front, there will 2 areas of additional
frontogenesis. This will produce additional precipitation across
the area from late morning into the afternoon.

The first area will be a 900 to 700 mb band of frontogenesis
(associated with a short wave moving currently located over
Missouri) which will move northeast across the eastern portions
of northeast Iowa and southwest and central Wisconsin. Soundings
suggest that the precipitation will be mainly in the form of snow.
However, there may be a brief period of freezing drizzle at the
onset of this precipitation. Snow totals in these areas will be up
to an inch.

The second area of 800 to 500 mb frontogenesis (associated with
the mid level trough moving out of the Dakotas) will bring another
round of accumulating snow to southeast Minnesota and along and
north of Interstate 90. Additional snowfall totals will be in the
1 to 4 inch range.

The heaviest snow (2 to 5 inches) will be fall across southeast
Minnesota, north-central Iowa, and in west-central and north-
central Wisconsin. With a shift slightly east with this snow band
and disjointed forcing aloft, changed the winter storm warning
counties to a winter weather advisory. Other than that no changes
were made to the headlines this morning. We will also be issuing a
Special Weather Statement for the remainder of the area to cover
the rapid freeze up of water on road ways which may cause them to
become slippery.

For tonight, temperatures will cool into the single digits below
zero across northeast Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and north of
Interstate 90 in western Wisconsin and into the single digits
above zero in southwest and central Wisconsin. With a northwest
wind in the 10 to 20 mph range, wind chills will likely fall into
the 15 to 30 below range across much of the area. If this trend
continues, a Wind Chill Advisory will likely be needed for late
tonight and Friday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

On Friday night, another arctic cold front will move quickly
southeast through the area. With much of the lift and moisture
remaining to our west and south, not anticipating any snow with
this frontal passage.

While the winds will be less than 10 mph on both Friday and
Saturday nights, wind chills will likely fall into the minus 15 to
30 range.

On Sunday afternoon and night, the models continue to show that a
short wave will move quickly southeast through the region. Due to
this, the snow chances were increased.  Like yesterday it looks
like the precipitation totals will be around 5 hundredths of an
inch. With snow to liquid ratios of 20-25 to 1, snow totals at
this time look to be in the 1 to 2 inch range.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1155 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

IFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites this afternoon. Snow
will reduce visibilities to around 1 mile through mid-afternoon.
Intermittent periods of LIFR visibilities are likely, but do not
feel this will be the prevailing condition. The snow should begin
to taper off after 11.20Z. While visibility should begin to
improve at KLSE, BLSN may keep visibility lower at KRST through
the remainder of the afternoon. IFR ceilings should gradually rise
through the afternoon, reaching VFR levels around 12.00Z.
Northwest winds of 10-20 kt with gusts 20-30 kt will persist
through the overnight, gradually tapering off Friday morning.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for WIZ017-
     029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MNZ079-
     086>088-094>096.

IA...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for
     IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hollan
SHORT TERM...Boyne
LONG TERM...Boyne
AVIATION...Hollan



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