Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 261959
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
259 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

SATELLITE SHOWING QUITE AN EXPANSIVE FIELD OF STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS
THE REGION AS MOISTURE WAS TRAPPED UNDER MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND
SUBSIDENCE. CLOUDS AND COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW PRODUCING CHILLY
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 40S ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR AND
LOWER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI.

LATEST SYNTHETIC/NSSL WRF SATELLITE SHOWS EVENTUAL EROSION OF THIS
STRATOCUMULUS FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST UNDER INFLUENCE OF DRY
NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND HUDSON BAY HIGH. THIS LOOKS TO RELATIVELY
SHORT-LIVED OVERNIGHT AS MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SPREAD IN AHEAD OF
INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL HANG ON CLOUD COVER/WIND. LOOKING FOR LOWS IN THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 30S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI AND IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER
40S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. APPEARS NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10
MPH SHOULD INHIBIT ANY FROST FORMATION ACROSS CLARK/TAYLOR COUNTIES
WHERE LOWS MAY GET TO THE 32-33 DEGREE MARK.

PLAN ON SHIELD OF RAIN MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED
WITH MID-LEVEL LOW AND PUSHES INTO SOUTHWEST IA. CONVEYER BELT RAIN
WRAPPED AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL BE IMPEDED BY DRY NORTHEASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW AROUND HUDSON BAY HIGH. FEEL BEST CHANCES FOR COLUMN
SATURATION/RAINFALL WILL BE SOUTH OF I-94...BUT THEN A PRETTY SHARP
CUT OFF NORTHEAST OF I-94 WHERE DRIER AIR WILL RESIDE. COMBINATION
OF CLOUD COVER/INCOMING RAIN/EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS SLATED ONLY TO BE IN THE 50-55 DEGREE RANGE.

RAIN LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD PRETTY MUCH REST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA WHILE
SLOWLY FILLING. LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO NEAR
40.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE THURSDAY...TAPERING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD CORE ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL LOW LINGERS
OVERHEAD. OTHERWISE...A FAIRLY RAW DAY ON TAP WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
40S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT A BIT ON THE COLD SIDE...FALLING INTO THE
35-40 DEGREE RANGE.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY. HOWEVER...LOOKING
LIKE THERE WILL BE LINGERING MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION FOR STRATOCUMULUS. LOOK FOR A BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES...
BUT REMAINING COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON THE MIDDLE 50S TO
AROUND 60.

RAIN CHANCES SPREAD BACK INTO THE REGION LATER FRIDAY NIGHT...
HANGING AROUND FOR THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. APPEARS BETTER CHANCES WILL BE
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-94 AS HUDSON BAY HIGH CIRCULATES DRIER AIR IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE...THE BROKEN RECORD OF COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUES TO PLAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO NEAR
60.

VERY SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES SLATED FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY...BUT LATEST
MODEL RUNS LOOKING A BIT DRIER NOW. MAY BE ABLE TO YANK THESE
CHANCES...BUT WILL LET ANOTHER MODEL RUN GO THROUGH BEFORE MAKING
THAT DECISION. LOOKS LIKE A BIT OF A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS MONDAY
IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO NEAR 60...AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

LOW CLOUD DECKS SLOWLY LIFTING FROM IFR TO MVFR LATE THIS MORNING
WITH SLOW DIURNAL WARMING AND AN INFLUX OF DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR
ON THE EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW. HOWEVER...AREA PIREPS FROM THIS MORNING
SHOWING THE CLOUD DECK SOME 2K-3K FT THICK. 26.12Z RAOBS FROM KMPX/
KGRB SHOWING THE DEEPER CLOUD DECK MOISTURE AS WELL...ALONG WITH
MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE TRAPPED IN/UNDER AN INVERSION AROUND 900MB.
ALL THIS POINTS TO THE LOWER CLOUDS BEING VERY PERSISTENT ACROSS THE
TAF SITES INTO THIS EVENING. CIGS TO GRADUALLY RISE THRU THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...THEN BECOME SCT IN THE 03Z-04Z TIME-FRAME
AS THE DRIER EASTERLY SFC-900MB FLOW EVENTUALLY WINS OUT. REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD THEN EXPECTED TO BE VFR. MOISTURE SPREADING
NORTHEAST WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE PLAINS
IS MAINLY MID LEVEL...WITH CIGS AOA 7K FT LATER TONIGHT/WED MORNING.
DEEPER SATURATION AND THE RAIN CHANCES LOOKING TO SPREAD INTO THE
KRST AREA 18-20Z WED AFTERNOON THEN INTO KLSE AFTER 27.21Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS UPSTREAM OF THE REGION
WILL PRODUCE RISES ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS.
CURRENT PROJECTIONS SUGGEST THE RIVER WILL BE RISING TO WITHIN 2-4
FEET OF FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY MAY. THOSE WITH INTERESTS ALONG THE
RIVER SHOULD MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR HIGHER WATER LEVELS IN THE COMING
WEEKS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM....MW
AVIATION.....RRS
HYDROLOGY....DAS



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