Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 270418
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1020 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.UPDATED...
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

NARROW FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF SNOW WAS MAKING ITS WAY NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING. GENERALLY...AMOUNTS WITH
THE MOSTLY WEST-EAST RUNNING BAND WAS UP TO 1/2 INCH. HOWEVER...THE
WESTERN TAIL HAD A MORE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION TO IT...RESULTING IN
ACCUMULATIONS AS HIGH AS 3 INCHES AT OTRANTO IA /MITCHELL CO/. WITH
MORE SNOW EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...HAVE EXPANDED THE ADVISORY TO INCLUDE
THE COUNTIES THAT RECEIVED THESE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

A STORM SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT SPREADING A MIX OF
LIGHT SNOW AND DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WITH A SWITCH OVER TO MAINLY ALL SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. A BAND OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. THE HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES WILL OCCUR NORTH OF WISCONSIN
HIGHWAY 10. THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE ARRIVING A LITTLE LATER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST SO HAVE PUSHED THE START TIME OF THE ADVISORY
BACK...STARTING AT 03Z IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND AT 06Z IN WEST
CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ALSO...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS EVENING AS THE
ATMOSPHERE STARTS TO SATURATE. WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR BELOW
FREEZING...PLAN ON PATCHY TO AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. A SWITCH
OVER TO SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
STARTS TO PUSH INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

THERE WILL BE A WINTRY MIX ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW BAND
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT BEFORE A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE MAIN BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS LOOKS TO STAY JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING HOURS THEN
GRADUALLY SLIDES SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL
FORCING INCREASES AFTER 09Z...SO THIS IS WHEN AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 WILL SEE PRECIPITATION BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD WITH THE BULK OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING OVER
THESE AREAS AFTER THIS TIME. MESOSCALE MODELS LOOK CONVECTIVE
AFTER 06Z ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. WE COULD SEE SOME BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MAIN SNOW BAND AND THIS COULD CREATE SOME
QUICK ACCUMULATIONS LEADING TO SLICK TRAVEL..WHERE TEMPERATURES
ARE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY
NEED TO BE EXPANDED SOUTH FROM ITS CURRENT LOCATION TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS ACTIVITY. SNOW WILL START TO TAPER OFF LATE SATURDAY MORNING
AS THE WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. LOOK FOR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT AND BY LATER AFTERNOON RANGE FROM THE TEENS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA TO THE 20S ACROSS SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS IN CONTROL
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. A TROUGH THEN
DIVES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY SPREADING SOME LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE BIG STORY WILL BE TEMPERATURES
PLUMMETING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COLD
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ABOVE ZERO ON TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
NUDGE UPWARD ON WEDNESDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL EDGE INTO THE TEENS
ABOVE ZERO. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE A CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THEY WILL DROP INTO THE -15 TO -20 RANGE
ACROSS THE OPEN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. COOL NORTHWEST FLOW THEN LOOKS TO BE THE
RULE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

SNOW WAS EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA...AND A SMALL BAND HAS ALREADY
IMPACTED KRST/KLSE. 2-4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE AT KRST...WITH 1-2 FOR
KLSE. EXPECT THE ASSOCIATED IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH THE SNOW...WITH
SOME DIP INTO LIFR POSSIBLE AT KRST.

THE BULK OF THE SNOW WILL HAVE SHIFTED NORTHEAST BY 18Z...AND EXPECT
SOME BUMP UP IN CIG HEIGHTS AS A RESULT.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH SAT MORNING...AND STAY BLUSTERY
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. WITH THE WET NATURE OF THE SNOW...DON/T
THINK BLSN WILL BECOME AN ISSUE FOR KRST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR WIZ017-029-
     032>034.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ079-086-
     087.

IA...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATED......RIECK
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM....WETENKAMP
AVIATION.....RIECK


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