Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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000
FXUS63 KARX 200324
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1024 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MANITOBA AND ONTARIO WILL ALLOW
A COLD FRONT TO SINK SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THIS FRONT THEN STALLS NEAR THE INTERSTATE 90 AND AND 94
CORRIDORS ON SUNDAY. 925 AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS RATHER
WEAK AND PARALLEL WITH THIS FRONT...SO KEPT THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 IN THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT
RANGE.

ON SUNDAY...THE 925 MB AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS A BIT MORE
CONVERGENT ALONG THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...THE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES
CLIMB INTO THE 250 TO 750 J/KG RANGE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO THIS...INCREASED
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP A BIT HIGHER. WITH THE 0-3 KM AND
0-6 KM SHEAR LESS THAN 30 KNOTS...NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH THE FRONT FINALLY SOUTH
OF THE AREA. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW THAT MOST UNSTABLE CAPES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. IN
ADDITION...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR DOES EXCEED 40 KNOTS. HOWEVER THE
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE CAPE IS VERY SKINNY...SO NOT OVERLY
CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT MOVES QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION...THE 50-60 PERCENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL LOOK GOOD
FOR NOW. HOWEVER WILL LIKELY HAVE TO RAISE THEM EVEN MORE AS WE
APPROACH THIS TIME PERIOD. THE GFS HAS MOST UNSTABLE CAPES IN THE
250 TO 500 J/KG RANGE ALONG THIS FRONT AND IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER BOTH THE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR REMAINS LESS
THAN 30 KNOTS. AS A RESULT...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER
AT THIS TIME.

FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...A STRONG COLD
FRONT AND NEGATIVELY TITLED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES CLIMB INTO THE 500 TO
1000 J/KG RANGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LIKE YESTERDAY...THERE
APPEARS TO BE ADEQUATE SHEAR FOR SUPER CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT IF THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO BECOME SURFACE BASED. HOWEVER...THERE
REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY OF WHETHER THIS WILL BE THE
CASE.

FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE 850 AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW
ZERO C...SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW NO ICE CRYSTAL SEEDING. AS A
RESULT HAVE KEPT THE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN HAS BASICALLY STALLED...AND UP TO THIS POINT ALL SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS STAYED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES. THIS COULD
CHANGE EARLY THIS MORNING AS STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE
TRANSPORT MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. HAVE VCSH AT BOTH TAF
SITES FROM 09-12Z TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL. ADDITIONALLY...THESE
WINDS RESULT IN THE NEED FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT LSE. AFTER
12Z AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD...PERIODS OF SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY PRIOR TO 15Z AND AFTER 19Z AS THE FRONT
DROPS DOWN INTO THE TAF SITES. THESE TIME PERIODS COINCIDE WITH
THOSE STRONGER WINDS INITIALLY AND INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH
GIVEN ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE TAF FOR
NOW. DESPITE ALL THE RAIN POTENTIAL...ANTICIPATING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A SOUTH FLOW OF DRY AIR SHOULD
HELP KEEP CEILINGS VFR. SHOULD SOME HEAVIER RAIN FALL WITH SAY A
THUNDERSTORM...THE VISIBILITY COULD DROP TO MVFR FOR A BRIEF TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS CRESTING FROM GENOA TO GUTTENBERG FROM
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE ONLY PLACE EXPECTED TO
EXCEED FLOOD STAGE ALONG THIS STRETCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS
MCGREGOR. FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...BETWEEN 0.35 AND
1.00 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED FALL. DUE TO THE LONG DURATION...NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED FROM THIS RAIN. HOWEVER...IT WILL KEEP RIVER
LEVELS ELEVATED INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...EASTER
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE AREA WILL RECEIVE ITS FIRST MEASURABLE RAIN ON AN EASTER
SINCE 2008 /MARCH 23RD/. ON THAT EASTER...LA CROSSE RECEIVED 0.03
INCHES AND ROCHESTER RECEIVED 0.02 INCHES. WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN...IT WILL BE LIKELY THE WETTEST
EASTER SINCE 2006 /APRIL 16TH/. ON THAT EASTER...LA CROSSE
RECEIVED 0.54 INCHES AND ROCHESTER RECEIVED 1.20 INCHES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...AJ
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE
CLIMATE...BOYNE



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